ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

I’ve been seeing some chatter about possible interaction between Laura and the Jet Stream this weekend making for some very strong winds inland into the South East. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

I saw this morning that the ECMWF reintensifies this as it moves off the east coast. Probably some baroclinic processes and that would indeed cause some wind.

[Highteeld]

Nascent hot tower going off on the western side of the LLC. We may get a CDO soon.

[Frank P]

https://imgur.com/L6yOtar

that overall vis sat loop presentation sure looks like the system per se is more NW than WNW.... IMO... or maybe heading off in a 300 deg direction in lieu of the advertised 290 degrees..

[SconnieCane]

This is just a casual observation (and may not be correct) but doesn't it seem like we've had a relative lack of the large sized systems in the last several years? Seems like everything now has these small tight cores. Is there any knowledge about what causes to be large/small in the basin and the related factors?

Irma got quite large toward the end of its track (Cuba/Keys/Marco Island). This was pretty well modeled from early on.

[wx98]

When is the next recon flight expected to take off?

AF plane takes off at 3:30 CDT and NOAA goes at 4 CDT.

So the AF plane should be taking off pretty soon.

Looks like about 2 hours if they stay on schedule. They should reach the center by 5:15-5:30 CDT or so.

[Buck]

Nascent hot tower going off on the western side of the LLC. We may get a CDO soon.

Is it just my eyes or is that perhaps another one on the southern side?

[Highteeld]

Nascent hot tower going off on the western side of the LLC. We may get a CDO soon.

Is it just my eyes or is that perhaps another one on the southern side?

Yep

[aspen]

Winds were nudged up to 70 kt in the 18z best track. Pressure remains 990 mbar.

[shiny-pebble]

Is the feature on visible a nascent eye or just an area of weak convection?

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[supercane4867]

Is the feature on visible a nascent eye or just an area of weak convection?

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Most likely an eye.

[gfsperpendicular]

Is the feature on visible a nascent eye or just an area of weak convection?

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I think it's probably an eye, but it probably won't stay like this very long. New convection could cover it up, and it will probably shrink once it closes off.

[wkwally]

I have been hearing a lot of talk here in my area that it will miss us but with landfall only 75 miles from the Humble/Houston area I am concerned that a little wobble just before landfall could set it right over us (center).

[catskillfire51]

A couple towers on the southwest side just popped off too.

[GCANE]

The mid-level dry air is coming from the ridge to the east.
This time tomorrow, the mega TPW feed will kick in from the EPAC.
The feeder band will kick off massive thunderstorms to the east of the CoC and pinch off the mid-level dry air.
Watch out if the evil twin pops up that sometimes forms to the E or NE of a TC.
That would really pinch off the dry air and Laura could ramp up big time then.

[wx98]

I have been hearing a lot of talk here in my area that it will miss us but with landfall only 75 miles from the Humble/Houston area I am concerned that a little wobble just before landfall could set it right over us (center).

That is definitely a possibility. At this time anywhere from Galveston to Lake Charles is definitely in play.

[Rail Dawg]

Am here in Houston and am preparing the chaser truck to head for Port Arthur vicinity Wednesday morning. Parking lot garages are few and far between out that way. It may be a get to the coast, tuck my tail and scurry inland a ways.

Have been thinking Cat 4 for a day or so but there is a small part of me thinking Cat 5. Purely an educated guess. Michael surprised everyone and went Cat 5.

[tolakram]

[Ken711]

Am here in Houston and am preparing the chaser truck to head for Port Arthur vicinity Wednesday morning. Parking lot garages are few and far between out that way. It may be a get to the coast, tuck my tail and scurry inland a ways.

Have been thinking Cat 4 for a day or so but there is a small part of me thinking Cat 5. Purely an educated guess. Michael surprised everyone and went Cat 5.

Stay safe.

[Rail Dawg]

Imagine the Galveston 1900 hurricane. Those poor people had no idea what was ramping up out there in the Gulf. We sit here days prior and watch. They didn't know until the winds came.

[wx98]

Am here in Houston and am preparing the chaser truck to head for Port Arthur vicinity Wednesday morning. Parking lot garages are few and far between out that way. It may be a get to the coast, tuck my tail and scurry inland a ways.

Have been thinking Cat 4 for a day or so but there is a small part of me thinking Cat 5. Purely an educated guess. Michael surprised everyone and went Cat 5.

Be careful Rail Dawg! Always enjoy your posts and look forward to hearing from you.