ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Stewart upgraded Eta to a hurricane. Core is gone, starting to spin down as dry air is entrained. I was going to indicate weakening in my advisory.

[beachnut]

It sure covered one hell of a lot of East movement for a North moving storm. I think it reached hurricane strength briefly at 4 am. Lets see if it regains it. Regardless, Cape Coral must be wondering what the hell happened.

I woke up a little before 4am and saw the partial eye on radar, went back to sleep and now see a different, weaker storm. Unless something changes looks like it's just going to be a heavy rain event today with some windy spells, nothing we can't handle. Rush hour's going to be nasty though, but fortunately I can work from home. Hope the folks up in Pinellas et al. will be ok. We lived up there from '84 to '97, worst that ever happened was Elena. That area is due, and it will be bad when it happens, but I think Eta will hopefully keep losing it's punch. Stay safe!

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Eta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
735 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...ETA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Doppler radar data
indicate that Eta has re-strengthened into a hurricane offshore the
southwestern coast of Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 75
mph (120 km/h), with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 735 AM EST...1235 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 83.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[marionstorm]

Yeah well Stewart wasn't thinking this was going to go to Texas as a naked swirl ten minutes ago like someone. Would be better for you to stop giving us these definitive statements. Some of us actually live here.

[kevin]

I was just scrolling through the thread list and tbh I've mainly been focused on 98L and Theta the last few days. And suddenly I saw 'hurricane' next to Eta. Hope it weakens a bit before landfall, this is not what I expected. Eta's track has to be one of the craziest ones I've ever seen.

[GCANE]

Mesovort, right there

[wxman57]

The strong FL winds will not be able to get to the surface without strong convection. Data support 50-55 kts at the surface, no matter what the Fl wind is.

[Cflstorm]

Hurricane watch for Tampa? When was the last time you saw that? Florida shield Including the Tampa forcefield breaking down on all fronts with ETA.

2020 in action.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection should make a come back over the several hours. took a gulp of dry air. but a surge of moisture coming in.

[tolakram]

Visible loop
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso2_60.html

[tolakram]

[SouthernBreeze]

Visible loop
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso2_60.html

Awesome loop of the storm just waking up!

[tolakram]

[wx98]

I'm waiting for a few of the board posters to say that they still think this will become a hurricane before landfall on the northern gulf states as some were saying a couple of days ago.......
Water is too cold, too much shear, too much dry air. Depression by landfall.
And thank goodness!!!

Never count out the Gulf in 2020

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1326511427406934016




 https://twitter.com/ChurchillWx/status/1326504466531618816

[GCANE]

Just as expected. The PVS has crossed over the CoC from the NE and is now SW of the last Recon Fix.
Continuing to move away.
Refire likely in the next couple hours.

[supercane4867]

The strong FL winds will not be able to get to the surface without strong convection. Data support 50-55 kts at the surface, no matter what the Fl wind is.

Eta currently has a robust radar signature indicative of strong winds aloft as observed by recon. Surface winds will quickly pick up once the convection rebuilds which is still likely given favorable SSTs. NHC's decision is very reasonable given the system's proximity to FL coast.

[Aric Dunn]

What this upgrade means...

It means last evening and during the overnight it was likely a hurricane when the convection was deep. Also means they will likely in post season back it up 6 hours.

So sure it took in some dry air. Does not mean its not a hurricane for those saying its weakening.

Convection will lilely make a come back

[lando]

Just as expected. The PVS has crossed over the CoC from the NE and is now SW of the last Recon Fix.
Continuing to move away.
Refire likely in the next couple hours.

https://i.imgur.com/LaLiaHr.png

What is a Pv streamer

[Laser30033003]

looks like its making another jog to the East....