ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KC7NEC]

The thing about this storm potentially not having a major impact in Florida isn't this storm.... it's the next later this season. people may see a TS or miss and get complacent later in the year when it could matter.

[wx98]

AF and NOAA recon center passes incoming.

[GCANE]

I knew this would blow up, but this is massive.

[eastcoastFL]

I can’t believe this is blowing up... Always surprises with these storms...

It's been telegraphed for about 2 days though. It will again in the overnight after the next wane.

True. It’s been the same story for 3 nights now at least.

[jlauderdal]

Lights flickered but still on... gonna be a long weekend

FPL at your service in 40 mph winds

[eastcoastFL]

I’d say the IR sim on this model ended up being spot on!

[Steve]

I can’t believe this is blowing up... Always surprises with these storms...

It's been telegraphed for about 2 days though. It will again in the overnight after the next wane.

True. It’s been the same story for 3 nights now at least.

Agreed ec. I was only partly paying attention back then. GFS update is that it looks to affect everyone from South Carolina to Maine. Mostly keeps its buzz. Again, glad it will be just a decent TS going up through there since it keeps it over land but close enough to the coast to drawn in the water all the way up.

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing it bottomed out at 55 kt at 1800Z but is back to 60 kt now based on Recon.

[eastcoastFL]

This is my local forecast. What’s with that odd dip and then spike early tomorrow afternoon in the winds?

[fci]

Lake Worth Pier, now at 26.0 kts, from what I heard earlier on this forum there was not supposed be winds in excess of 25mph

Where did you see that?

[eastcoastFL]

Lake Worth Pier, now at 26.0 kts, from what I heard earlier on this forum there was not supposed be winds in excess of 25mph

Where did you see that?

That wouldn’t have made any sense with lake worth under a cane warning

[tolakram]

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like the LLC is getting tugged NE under the blow up of convection. Any METs know what this does for the track?

[xironman]

Lake Worth Pier, now at 26.0 kts, from what I heard earlier on this forum there was not supposed be winds in excess of 25mph

Where did you see that?

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=lkwf1

Now down to 20kt

[xironman]

https://i.imgur.com/AU9v3GW.png

Kinda looks like it is stalling.

[Steve]

995? I wonder where it ends up peaking either before FL hit/swipe or slightly ENE of Jacksonville. Maybe a run back to high 980's after the 4am burst? I don't know. Cool storm. Y'all stay safe and drink up.

[AnnularCane]

I knew this would blow up, but this is massive.

https://i.imgur.com/rM3uWXw.jpg

"There's a bathroom on the right." (Sorry, been listening to that parody on YouTube a fair amount lately.)

Funny how just a few hours ago everybody was ready to write his eulogy. It's easy to forget how quickly these things can change!

[WxEp]

Kind of impressed as well that despite having no convection for most of the day, the latest dropsonde still suggests pressure is around 992-993 mb.

995 mb dropsonde was found just now with a 28 KT surface wind.

Great call! Looks like they just found 992.

215830 2511N 07843W 6970 03102 9920 +151 +121 195010 013 028 001 00
215900 2512N 07845W 6966 03105 9917 +152 +122 133004 007 028 001 00
215930 2513N 07847W 6966 03104 9922 +146 +124 063010 017 024 001 00

[fci]

Lake Worth Pier, now at 26.0 kts, from what I heard earlier on this forum there was not supposed be winds in excess of 25mph

Where did you see that?

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=lkwf1

Now down to 20kt

Thanks, but I was asking where you heard earlier on this forum that winds wouldn't be in excess of 25 mph.
I totally believe the observation.

[Frank P]

Yeah 6-7 hours ago a plethora of folks were saying it’s dead, a naked swirl, dry air killing it, oh the shear, Fl dodges another one, the force field in effect, it looks terrible, it will never survive... oh the humanity... yada yada yada ... hahaha, I love reading all these posts, hey sometimes ya right and sometimes ya not... these systems pulse all the time, get stronger then maybe weaken due to less than adequate conditions, never ending cycle, but I would never turn my back on any tropical systems cause the bastards are sneaky and can kill ya... I’ve lost two homes to hurricanes, Camille and Katrina and I still love tracking them.. the jury is still out on Izzy but like many a storms in the past, they can make a fool of the best of ya... lord knows they have with me.. my scientific explanation is simple... he is going to do what he do! Be prepared FL... no two storms are alike for each area they affect...