ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

Should have some microwave passes coming in within the next hour or so... Let's hope they do not miss the center.

no worries, plenty of recon and satellite for center analysis

Serious question here, where are the HHs? Why is recon lacking right now? I thought recon was supposed to be in and out of a threat this close to the US ALL DAY LONG

AF plane takes off in about 10 minutes at 3:30 pm CDT. NOAA plane leaves 30 minutes later.

[BRweather]

What is the best site to overlap visible satellite with track forecast? CIMSS is 90 minutes behind current observation

[eastcoastFL]

Should have some microwave passes coming in within the next hour or so... Let's hope they do not miss the center.

no worries, plenty of recon and satellite for center analysis

Serious question here, where are the HHs? Why is recon lacking right now? I thought recon was supposed to be in and out of a threat this close to the US ALL DAY LONG

A new flight takes off every 3 hours I believe so there will be short gaps but they’ll be in there most of the time.

[jlauderdal]

Should have some microwave passes coming in within the next hour or so... Let's hope they do not miss the center.

no worries, plenty of recon and satellite for center analysis

Serious question here, where are the HHs? Why is recon lacking right now? I thought recon was supposed to be in and out of a threat this close to the US ALL DAY LONG

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Recon is valuable but at this point in Laura's life they don't need to be out there constantly, it isn't changing anything, you will have plenty of recon and radar and satellite and ground ops and everything else when its coming in.

[KWT]

Also can see on the loops above its starting to get a slightly less elongated N-S look to it which it had early today, especially in the core of the system. Will be interesting to see what recon comes out with and how much strengthening has actually happened. Given its fairly loose looking inner core, may take a little time for it to respond at least in terms of winds.

[jlauderdal]

Anyone think it will get stronger between now and midnight? Or do you think all strengthening will occur tomorrow?

It’s getting stronger as we speak...

which for houstonians might be a good thing as the stronger they are the tendency is to go right, they only need it a few miles east to make a huge difference, for the others to the east it isn't good but someone has to take it, life in the hurricane zone

[catskillfire51]

[p1nheadlarry]

The areas near the cold pool are still >= 79 C.

Maybe this is why the HWRF keeps overestimating intensity? It's using Celsius instead of Fahrenheit.

Lol sorry bad habit

[Blown Away]

eye is it 23.87n, 87.60w

So yes south of where you actually think the eye is.

Per the NHC
1:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 25
Location: 24.3°N 87.6°W

So what your telling me is that Laura actually went due south since the 1:00 pm advisory.... me thinks not...

Between 10-1pm, per NHC Laura went .6N @ .6W, for that period that’s NW.

[FLpanhandle91]

Given the large area of clear air around the center, I suspect the LLC is still circling around and being tugged and pulled by the hot towards around it. Expect wobbles as it settles into its structure.

[cfisher]

Is the ridge weaker than forecast?

[wx98]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2020 Time : 195020 UTC
Lat : 24:12:30 N Lon : 88:11:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 988.2mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.3 3.3

Center Temp : -74.6C Cloud Region Temp : -59.0C

[Blinhart]

Really wish they would have RECON set up where they are constantly got an aircraft in the air until landfall, this is the time we need constant RECON because the strength of the storm and all the other upper air information is needed to be as accurate as possible.

Would it really change much at this point other than satisfying the thirst for tons of data..we know about where its going and we know its going to require hurricane preprations which don't change based on more recon...does more recon really change any of that?

I have been where you are many times staring down a hurricane and understand the desire for data but focus on your preps, time is better spent on that and helping your neighbor than looking at every data point coming in. The hurricane is heading towards the border and either side of that 75 or miles is in real jeopardy of a 3/4 direct hit but even if its a 1/2 the preps are the same..the difference is the outcome and nobody has control over that regardless of data. The data flood might actually be hurting the models these days more than helping...they haven't been good on track or intensity, feels like we went backwards this year.

The reason is because Louisiana topography is totally different than Florida, all the different EM official need to know for evacuation and all prep. A landfall further East would cause more evacuations that aren't happening right now.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2020 Time : 195020 UTC
Lat : 24:12:30 N Lon : 88:11:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 988.2mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.3 3.3

Center Temp : -74.6C Cloud Region Temp : -59.0C

As soon as the scene type switches to eye, it will jump.

[wxman57]

I see Euro and GFS ensembles are between Houston and Beaumont. As long as it's EAST of Galveston Bay, Houston will be OK. Planning to ride it out at the office tomorrow night, where we have guaranteed power & internet.

[catskillfire51]

[Nimbus]

Large eye has been keeping the intensification rate slow today which we expected.
Waiting for the 18Z runs and the NHC for any new insight about what happens tomorrow.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/IECcqYN.png

Center is likely in the SW corner of the banding eye we saw earlier, judging by the movement of the convective burst. As that rotates around the top there may be a westward jog

[jlauderdal]

Really wish they would have RECON set up where they are constantly got an aircraft in the air until landfall, this is the time we need constant RECON because the strength of the storm and all the other upper air information is needed to be as accurate as possible.

Would it really change much at this point other than satisfying the thirst for tons of data..we know about where its going and we know its going to require hurricane preprations which don't change based on more recon...does more recon really change any of that?

I have been where you are many times staring down a hurricane and understand the desire for data but focus on your preps, time is better spent on that and helping your neighbor than looking at every data point coming in. The hurricane is heading towards the border and either side of that 75 or miles is in real jeopardy of a 3/4 direct hit but even if its a 1/2 the preps are the same..the difference is the outcome and nobody has control over that regardless of data. The data flood might actually be hurting the models these days more than helping...they haven't been good on track or intensity, feels like we went backwards this year.

The reason is because Louisiana topography is totally different than Florida, all the different EM official need to know for evacuation and all prep. A landfall further East would cause more evacuations that aren't happening right now.

Yes, I understand the Louisiana topography and so does NHC. More recon isn't going to change the NHC forecast track and SLOSH model output. THe issue isn't NHC or local officials warning people, the issue is people actually taking the appropriate action per those warnings...recon isn't changing that. There will be too many people that drown in this system in the bayou from surge because they didn't take the warnings seriously. Not a recon issue, its a people issue. Lets move on about recon...you want more and that isn't wrong.

[Kingarabian]

Best to wait for a couple of recon fixes to get the true movement of Laura. The big eye that's now obscured by deep rotating convection threw it off just a little but it should eventually get back on track. The real question in regards to track is when does the NW/NNW turn begin to take place. A delay in THAT turn will have big implications for Galveston and Houston.