ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

I know I just woke up.. but is it just me or has Arthur come to crawl the last 6 hours.. pretty much a dead stop at this point.

The LLC has been doing a cyclonic loop during the past few hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Hey look Arthur is smiling at us ... who can find it ??

[Aric Dunn]

I know I just woke up.. but is it just me or has Arthur come to crawl the last 6 hours.. pretty much a dead stop at this point.

The LLC has been doing a cyclonic loop during the past few hours.

yes.... do a long loop the entire envelope has barely moved in 6 + hours.. the small cyclonic loops are just a consequence of slowing down so much. it is under 5mph

[Aric Dunn]

It's current motion could be an indication of a short term nw motion as indicated by a large number of Ensemble members.. actually looks like the majority of the ensemble members are showing such a possible deviation.

[AnnularCane]

Hey look Arthur is smiling at us ... who can find it ??

https://i.ibb.co/9pyTbPd/Capture.png

Ha! That's cute!

Right back at you, Artie.

[Aric Dunn]

Another possible reasoning.. since it has lost a lot of the deep convection around the center that it has now entered the low level steering which may be quite a bit weaker or more towards the NW

[Aric Dunn]

I think the trough over the plains /mid west might have a little more negative tilt to it..

the stall currently could be that the exiting trough east of nova scotia and the ridge filling in behind is due to the possible slight tilt in the trough over the mid west.

that could lead to the solution a lot of the ensemble members are showing.

in the long loop below you can see a sudden nw shift to the moisture flow in and around arthur and the mid atlantic. It wont last long as the midwest trough /low is dropping SE.

but it may keep arthur on a more North to nnw motion for a brief period.

[plasticup]

Anyone have thoughts about the end of the forecast period? GFS and some show westward movement, others show eastward with a loop into Bermuda. Anyone care to speculate about that?

[Abdullah]

Wind Speed up to 40 knots (45 mph)

11:00 A.M. Advisory

[hipshot]

SLIDER

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1028.9573822021484&y=934.9857788085938

Are the clouds I see above the swirl the upper and mid level circulations. It may be naked but it seems to have lots of company directly overhead.

[Kazmit]

Looks like a classic early season storm in that region. Let's see if it can regain some tropical characteristics as it will be passing over warmer SSTs.

[Jr0d]

The LLC is definately on the move north again. Tonight will be its last chance to strengthen as a tropical storm, but will likely pick up stength later from baroclinic forcing but losing its tropical features.

[Aric Dunn]

The LLC is definately on the move north again. Tonight will be its last chance to strengthen as a tropical storm, but will likely pick up stength later from baroclinic forcing but losing its tropical features.

it is completing a cyclonic loop.. and looks to maybe be starting another.. might bend back nnw here shortly..

[OuterBanker]

All I'm hearing now is Patsy Cline's.

"I fall to pieces "

[chaser1]

I think the trough over the plains /mid west might have a little more negative tilt to it..

the stall currently could be that the exiting trough east of nova scotia and the ridge filling in behind is due to the possible slight tilt in the trough over the mid west.

that could lead to the solution a lot of the ensemble members are showing.

in the long loop below you can see a sudden nw shift to the moisture flow in and around arthur and the mid atlantic. It wont last long as the midwest trough /low is dropping SE.

but it may keep arthur on a more North to nnw motion for a brief period.

https://i.ibb.co/SynBJyw/LABELS-19700101-000000.gif

Totally agree. Nice analysis! (but I never could find Arthur's smile in that frame LOL)

[Aric Dunn]

I think the trough over the plains /mid west might have a little more negative tilt to it..

the stall currently could be that the exiting trough east of nova scotia and the ridge filling in behind is due to the possible slight tilt in the trough over the mid west.

that could lead to the solution a lot of the ensemble members are showing.

in the long loop below you can see a sudden nw shift to the moisture flow in and around arthur and the mid atlantic. It wont last long as the midwest trough /low is dropping SE.

but it may keep arthur on a more North to nnw motion for a brief period.

https://i.ibb.co/SynBJyw/LABELS-19700101-000000.gif

Totally agree. Nice analysis! (but I never could find Arthur's smile in that frame LOL)

haha.. look in the very center of the circ...

[chaser1]

Arthur has a tight low level center. It's apparent that outflow is expanding and that upper level shear has relaxed. I'd be very very surprised if we were to not see a nice burst of new convection co-located with the COC as the storm moves over the slightly warmer waters of the Gulf Stream tonight and into tomm. Given it's tight core, it would take no time at all to see a 4-6 mb drop in pressure. I'm gonna guess it'll reach 997 mb before transitioning to extra-tropical.

[chaser1]

I think the trough over the plains /mid west might have a little more negative tilt to it..

the stall currently could be that the exiting trough east of nova scotia and the ridge filling in behind is due to the possible slight tilt in the trough over the mid west.

that could lead to the solution a lot of the ensemble members are showing.

in the long loop below you can see a sudden nw shift to the moisture flow in and around arthur and the mid atlantic. It wont last long as the midwest trough /low is dropping SE.

but it may keep arthur on a more North to nnw motion for a brief period.

https://i.ibb.co/SynBJyw/LABELS-19700101-000000.gif

Totally agree. Nice analysis! (but I never could find Arthur's smile in that frame LOL)

haha.. look in the very center of the circ...

That's hilarious ! I was looking at the frame too broadly, but boy it's smack at center nice and small

[ScottNAtlanta]

Arthur has a tight low level center. It's apparent that outflow is expanding and that upper level shear has relaxed. I'd be very very surprised if we were to not see a nice burst of new convection co-located with the COC as the storm moves over the slightly warmer waters of the Gulf Stream tonight and into tomm. Given it's tight core, it would take no time at all to see a 4-6 mb drop in pressure. I'm gonna guess it'll reach 997 mb before transitioning to extra-tropical.

I agree. The structure is pretty good, just the fact that cooler water and it being frickin MAY 17th. Just be thankful it's not July because with these conditions in July this would be ramping up quickly. It's been a while since there has been a purely tropical system like this in May (usually subtropical first or just subtropical)

[xironman]

Not looking great, but it does seem a bit more symmetrical with the spiral bands rather than everything being displaced to the east.