ATL: NANA - Remnants - Discussion

[us89]

Advisory pressure is down to 999 mb. NHC discussion suggests we're likely to see yet another intensifying hurricane upon landfall.

[cheezyWXguy]

System is clearly getting sheared right now

[cfisher]

Thunderstorms firing and collapsing into outflow boundaries has been a theme with this system.

[CrazyC83]

AF301 is already done? That was fast.
Edit: Never mind just saw AF307 is on the way

It's a long way to the storm from base.

[Craters]

4 NM to > 32 NM eye

G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)


must have gone through an ERC of sorts..

which is why the winds are not higher.

Is the storm even 32nm across?

Maybe they mean 32 nanometers?...

[chaser1]

4 NM Eye to 32 NM Eye?? Something just isn't right there. That's not an ERC, that's simply the world's largest F0 Waterspout

[MarioProtVI]

Looking at visible I think Nana fell and broke a hip or something. Centers seemed to be separating at least in my eyes, also pressure went up to 1001.7 on last pass. Not becoming a hurricane. Also the eyewall on radar seems to have degraded a lot due to increasing northerly shear. Would not be surprised if come sunrise this thing looks uglier and more disorganized then it is right now.

[chaser1]

Looking at visible I think Nana fell and broke a hip or something. Centers seemed to be separating at least in my eyes, also pressure went up to 1001.7 on last pass. Not becoming a hurricane. Also the eyewall on radar seems to have degraded a lot due to increasing northerly shear. Would not be surprised if come sunrise this thing looks uglier and more disorganized then it is right now.

I think you're right. Appears to be filling. Increased shallow LLC and rising pressures...... This was seemingly shallow to begin with (not uncharacteristic with a good number of storms this year). Even if this structurally deteriorates overnight, I'd bet that NHC will simply lock on to their TS tag until landfall, if for no other reason then for continuity and T.S. winds in the Northern semicircle.

[ClarCari]

We’ll see for sure overnight but per the most recent advisory NHC see’s no reason for this to not become a hurricane in the next 24 hours. Their last discussion already knew the shear was gonna impact it somewhat soo I’m going with them on this that I don’t think Nana is going to deteriorate the way its may look it is right now. It’ll recover...

[Ubuntwo]

Looking at visible I think Nana fell and broke a hip or something. Centers seemed to be separating at least in my eyes, also pressure went up to 1001.7 on last pass. Not becoming a hurricane. Also the eyewall on radar seems to have degraded a lot due to increasing northerly shear. Would not be surprised if come sunrise this thing looks uglier and more disorganized then it is right now.

I think you're right. Appears to be filling. Increased shallow LLC and rising pressures...... This was seemingly shallow to begin with (not uncharacteristic with a good number of storms this year). Even if this structurally deteriorates overnight, I'd bet that NHC will simply lock on to their TS tag until landfall, if for no other reason then for continuity and T.S. winds in the Northern semicircle.

Well...

Starting to redevelop an eyewall on radar. The latest pass had a more intense windfield to the NW, FL winds of 59kt, with a slightly lower pressure (not much). All this in just under an hour - don't write off small systems folks.
Might be a little wobble, but it shows that it's not persisting in weakening. These small TCs have rapid intensity fluctuations, up and down.

[Hammy]

Looking at visible I think Nana fell and broke a hip or something. Centers seemed to be separating at least in my eyes, also pressure went up to 1001.7 on last pass. Not becoming a hurricane. Also the eyewall on radar seems to have degraded a lot due to increasing northerly shear. Would not be surprised if come sunrise this thing looks uglier and more disorganized then it is right now.

I think you're right. Appears to be filling. Increased shallow LLC and rising pressures...... This was seemingly shallow to begin with (not uncharacteristic with a good number of storms this year). Even if this structurally deteriorates overnight, I'd bet that NHC will simply lock on to their TS tag until landfall, if for no other reason then for continuity and T.S. winds in the Northern semicircle.

Well...
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/750596697813549096/unknown.png
Starting to redevelop an eyewall on radar. The latest pass had a more intense windfield to the NW, FL winds of 59kt, with a slightly lower pressure (not much). All this in just under an hour - don't write off small systems folks.
Might be a little wobble, but it shows that it's not persisting in weakening. These small TCs have rapid intensity fluctuations, up and down.

For some reason this part of the Caribbean, westward-moving storms often sees storms go through bumps in organization and then suddenly strengthen as they're headed into Belize. I remember Franklin in 2017, Earl in 2016, Ernesto in 2012, Harvey in 2011, and even as far back as Chantal in 2001 as some examples.

[GCANE]

NE Shear appears to be relaxing.
Convection moving back to the CoC.

[GCANE]

ULL in the GoM has moved significantly north and pressure has dropped from 1018 mb last night to currently 1015 mb.

[xironman]

Plane descending into storm. Basically steady state with the last flight.

[NDG]

Recon this morning shows Nana did not strengthen during the night, seems to be getting hit by moderate to strong easterly shear despite its fast track westward.
Easterly shear is still forecasted to calm down some tonight and early tomorrow morning before making landfall.

[GCANE]

VDM

Center Fix Coordinates: 17.10N 83.37W

Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)

Eye Character: Not Available
Eye Shape: Not Available

[Buck]

Definitely not looking as good this morning as I expected her too last night.

[wxman57]

Shear from the upper-level low to its NE will be increasing up to landfall. Small storms are very fragile. Remember how quickly Marco weakened under increased shear? Nana may have already peaked.

[wxman57]

Nana passed directly over this buoy last night. Winds reached 31 kts just before the center moved overhead (winds dropped to 8 kts) and rose to about 27 kts on the back side. Any strong winds are located over a very small area just north of the small center.

[wx98]

...NANA CONTINUING WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE...
11:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 2
Location: 17.1°N 84.6°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph