ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Very strong wordings from NWS Twitter

 https://twitter.com/nws/status/1298362507770368006

[Red eye]

Ok, just finished with doing the sand bags to the back door, cleaned out the gutters, and brought in the majority of all furniture from outside. Tomorrow morning after waking up and seeing what is going on, will decided if I need to sand bag the 2 front doors, got a old shower door to dam up my back french doors. Hopefully I won't have to do those things and this thing will be going closer to Houston than closer to me.

Good luck man. We are in Robert's Cove area. I haven't done much yet. Probably wait until it cools down tomorrow afternoon. It's been pretty relaxing today. The wife's cooking a gumbo. Hurricane party so to speak.

[Steve]

Possibly in the future they will move more storm drainage to the MS River where it can flow out rather than just being backed up.

One potential problem with that: the MS river is several feet higher than Lake Pontchartrain, which is more or less at
sea level.

Yeah. I don't think it'll ever be possible to move it all through there. It's just like trying to pump it in to the lake when you are the lake is futile.

[TunaNugget]

Being on the left side didn't help New Orleans much for Katrina, although I'm guessing Houston's infrastructure isn't entirely the same. I guess it still floods easily there though, does it?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think most of NOLA's problems with Katrina came from the configuration of the bodies of water to the east and north of the city. As Katrina approached, she shoved a ton of water into Lake Borgne and Lake Pontchartrain around the north side of the circulation, which then rushed into the canal system of the city, overtopping and collapsing levees. Winds were not that big of an issue comparatively (probably Cat-1 sustained in the city?).

Yeah, it was her angle of approach. Southern MS sustained the most damage from winds

From what I saw, most of the damage to the MS coast was from the surge, or the huge waves on top of the surge. There wasn't much left except the Waffle House, and other buildings like it. People joke about how the Waffle House always stays open, but that place was built on a massive poured-concrete foundation.

[supercane4867]

NOAA plane appears to be getting ready for a NW-SE pass.

[Stormcenter]

Laura definitely expanding in size quite rapidly.

[IsabelaWeather]

There you go folks, we are down to less than 50 miles either side of the NHC track, 57 within 30 to the west. if you are chasing it, Galveston to cameron is your spot for now.

That is a bad place to chase, concrete structures, i.e. parking garages are the safest places. Too rural.

If you are chasing them, you dont always get a cozy place to hangout like a parking garage...good chasers find it and stay alive, natural or manamade structures.

The Cameron area is a literal death sentence to chase. There is nothing there to protect you from surge or wind. There are also very, very few roads. I would not leave Sabine Pass.

[Kingarabian]

Certainly looks a lot better on VIS compared to IR.

[BobHarlem]

That is a bad place to chase, concrete structures, i.e. parking garages are the safest places. Too rural.

If you are chasing them, you dont always get a cozy place to hangout like a parking garage...good chasers find it and stay alive, natural or manamade structures.

The Cameron area is a literal death sentence to chase. There is nothing there to protect you from surge or wind. There are also very, very few roads. I would not leave Sabine Pass.

Mark Sudduth put a remote camera in Cameron, and is setting one up in Holly Beach right now, but not hanging around there for it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51j0t6L ... e=youtu.be

[supercane4867]

Poleward outflow improving dramatically this evening.

[shiny-pebble]

On IR, you can see a fist of very cold cloud tops rotating around the center. Once this makes its way around the center I think RI will commence IMO

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[aspen]

Certainly looks a lot better on VIS compared to IR.

That applies to just about any <100 kt storm. They always look better on visible than IR.

Dorian as a Cat 2/3 looked great on visible, but rather ugly on IR.

[HurryKane]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think most of NOLA's problems with Katrina came from the configuration of the bodies of water to the east and north of the city. As Katrina approached, she shoved a ton of water into Lake Borgne and Lake Pontchartrain around the north side of the circulation, which then rushed into the canal system of the city, overtopping and collapsing levees. Winds were not that big of an issue comparatively (probably Cat-1 sustained in the city?).

Yeah, it was her angle of approach. Southern MS sustained the most damage from winds

Trees were down way up toward Hattiesburg, and it was probably just a 2 there with tornadoes. Along the coast, many buildings were scraped from their foundations. Many that remained standing had their contents washed through with the surge as it came in. Our own Frank P lives along the MS Coast and lost his house he thought would withstand anything but the worst of the worst storms. I remember he posted that he found a couple of identifiable kitchen tiles down the block. I could be wrong, but some of that surge was like 25+ feet, and they have a very shallow coast pretty far out.

Speaking of tornadoes, watch those outer bands farther in from landfall and in advance of landfall.

You are correct, the surge in Waveland, Pearlington, Bay St. Louis, Diamondhead, Pass Christian, Long Beach, Gulfport, Biloxi, and at some points further east etc. was up to ~30 ft. There are *still* steps to nowhere all along the coast, which was all that was left of some of the homes.

Thinking of all of you in Laura’s path.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Significantly better polar outflow vs this morning, with a banding eye being replaced by a budding CDO.

[LSU Saint]

So shifting back to the East? Will these models ever figure what’s going on? Everyone in Houston is on edge

[Ken711]

Is Laura still on the NHC forecast track?

[ConvergenceZone]

Someone was asking on another forum if they thought this would be worse than Marco

[Steve]

Poleward outflow improving dramatically this evening.

Looks good. I was wondering if it would link up with sheared outflow from Marco across Mississippi. I’ll tell you this, winds are picking up here. We aren’t a particularly windy city because levees and flood walls are so high around us. It’s about a constant 15-20 with gusts into the mid 20’s all out the SE.

[aspen]

Recon is descending to operational altitude and will be doing a NW to SE pass.

[NotoSans]

NOAA aircraft has descended to flight-level and is about to conduct a NW-SE pass. Note that it's doing a non-standard 750mb mission so the conversion factor applicable to flight-level winds would be slightly lower than 0.9.