EPAC: DOUGLAS - Remnants

[CrazyC83]

From what I can tell, it seems to be headed just north of Maui, perhaps right into Molokai then into the southern Oahu coast. That would be the worst possible spot.

Also, the storm surge into Pearl Harbor would be BEHIND the eye as the wind shifts to the south.

[Kingarabian]

Maybe the CPHC should issue a special advisory to shift the track? Or that's only allowed for intensity adjustments?

[Yellow Evan]

Maybe the CPHC should issue a special advisory to shift the track? Or that's only allowed for intensity adjustments?

I’ve seen the NHC do it for track changes a couple times (Paul 12 comes to mind).

[supercane4867]

There’s no point for a special advisory since they already explicitly mentioned direct landfall as a possibility in the previous advisories.

[Kingarabian]

Warm dimple on visible.

[MGC]

Also, per recon the LLC and MLC are pretty much on top of each other again. maybe a very slight tilt. but nowhere near what it was last night.

LLC is pretty much dead center od the RADAR eye.

Thanks for the update. A stacked hurricane is bad news. We can only hope Douglas falls apart at the last moment......MGC

[Aric Dunn]

Not looking good for Molaki and Oahu. hopefully the big island disrupts some of the inflow soon.

[CrazyC83]

Not looking good for Molaki and Oahu. hopefully the big island disrupts some of the inflow soon.

It's too far from the Big Island to do much. Maui could disrupt it if the core approaches it though.

[Aric Dunn]

Not looking good for Molaki and Oahu. hopefully the big island disrupts some of the inflow soon.

It's too far from the Big Island to do much. Maui could disrupt it if the core approaches it though.

Speaking of eddy's and turbulent flow as the winds switch out of the south across the big island.

and eddy has already developed between Maui and the big island you can see it on sat and radar.. but it will be the eddys that come off the big island later.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon still supporting 80kts.

[Yellow Evan]

Recon still supporting 80kts.

Highest SFMR only 72 so maybe lower to 75?

[CrazyC83]

Recon still supporting 80kts.

That would be on par with Iwa in 1982 and Dot in 1959.

[aspen]

Looks like Douglas is moving almost exactly due west, based on the second center fix. Pressure might be up 1 mbar.

[Kingarabian]

Look how far east the HWRF is going to be at this point.

[CrazyC83]

Recon still supporting 80kts.

Highest SFMR only 72 so maybe lower to 75?

That may be the case if they don't find additional data supporting a bit higher.

[MGC]

Looks like Douglas is going to pass north or Maui....north shore of Oahu is my CPA....MGC

[CrazyC83]

Molokai might be able to weaken the storm a bit, since the highest point on that island is about 5,000 feet. Maui's high volcanoes are on the south side and it's looking less likely that the core will reach it.

[Yellow Evan]

If this can get a ring together, we could see some last min deepening.

[CrazyC83]

Even the SW quad - what would hit Molokai and possibly the north shore of Maui - has hurricane-force winds per Recon.

[Bocadude85]

Beeezy with intermittent sun and rain here in Honolulu.