ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[JaxGator]

Hurricane Hunters are on-route to St. Croix.

Hurricane Hunters
@53rdWRS
·
5h
Our two crews of #ReserveCitizenAirman Hurricane Hunters have made like trees to go to St. Croix from which they are scheduled to fly fixes through #TSJosephine into the weekend.

When is the first flight scheduled?

Here’s their plan of the day for tomorrow.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 131655
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1255 PM EDT THU 13 AUGUST 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUGUST 2020
TCPOD NUMBER.....20-079

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74
A. 14/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0111A JOSEPHINE
C. 14/1545Z
D. 16.5N 55.0W
E. 14/1730Z TO 14/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 15/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0211A JOSEPHINE
C. 15/1030Z
D. 18.5N 58.9W
E. 15/1130Z TO 15/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HOURLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

$$
WJM

NNNN

[cheezyWXguy]

Convection looks to be getting stripped away to the NW of the center, could be exposed again soon.

Aaand there it is. Pretty confident that’s the bottom half of the center now exposed on the south end of the main convection.

It's not.

I guess I was off then. Aric’s animation at the bottom of page 22 seemed to corroborate what I was seeing at the time. What was I missing?

[curtadams]

Another high-helicity tower.
Seems to happen about this time every day.
That'll get all those little stray vorts lined up.

Sputtering convection. Pretty standard for a TS under high shear.

Define sputtering

https://imgur.com/LawnCSH

Josephine throws up a CDO, then it weakens and she throws up a new one, generally in a different spot. She's been doing that for days. If you look at a loop that goes a little further back you'll see the previous CDO came from a different spot.

[ozonepete]

Aaand there it is. Pretty confident that’s the bottom half of the center now exposed on the south end of the main convection.

It's not.

I guess I was off then. Aric’s animation at the bottom of page 22 seemed to corroborate what I was seeing at the time. What was I missing?

No you're not necessarily off. I just saw it differently than you or Aric. Unfortunately I didn't, and don't, have time to include an image. But sorry, I was too terse there.

[Hurricaneman]

Sputtering convection. Pretty standard for a TS under high shear.

Define sputtering

https://imgur.com/LawnCSH

Josephine throws up a CDO, then it weakens and she throws up a new one, generally in a different spot. She's been doing that for days. If you look at a loop that goes a little further back you'll see the previous CDO came from a different spot.

It can’t be a CDO if it’s not over the center, the center is to the S to SE side of the convection so the MLC is about 50miles north to NNW of the LLC

[DorkyMcDorkface]

What an odd storm. A recent ASCAT pass did not really detect any 35kt+ windbarbs, it appears (although granted it did not catch the entirety of the circulation). Probably is technically back down to a TD, but ATCF still has it at 40kt as of the 00z update so I would imagine the NHC will keep it as such.

[GCANE]

CIMSS showing this is beginning to hit the wall of shear.

[CyclonicFury]

What an odd storm. A recent ASCAT pass did not really detect any 35kt+ windbarbs, it appears (although granted it did not catch the entirety of the circulation). Probably is technically back down to a TD, but ATCF still has it at 40kt as of the 00z update so I would imagine the NHC will keep it as such.
https://i.ibb.co/xhMPVdk/LATEST.png

Does not appear to be an open wave based on this as some stated earlier since there are very clear westerlies, though the pass did not capture the western side of the circulation.

[GCANE]

Large anticyclone to the SE.
Note: GFS has the anticyclone to the NE.
Watching if shear tears this apart or if outflow is enhanced.
It needs to keep firing convection to survive.
Any prolonged lull in convection will likely cause the anticyclone to dissipate and kill it.
Any strengthening in convection and anticyclone could move closer.
Bear in mind that shear gradients create updrafts that do fire off convection.
Its really watch and see what happens at this point.

[GCANE]

Note that 96L is up and positioned on the east coast.
It will have an effect on the Rossby wave coming across the CONUS for the next few days.
This may reshape the forecasted UL conditions in the Bahamas.
Something to keep an eye on if Joe survives and makes it into the Bahamas.

[ozonepete]

What an odd storm. A recent ASCAT pass did not really detect any 35kt+ windbarbs, it appears (although granted it did not catch the entirety of the circulation). Probably is technically back down to a TD, but ATCF still has it at 40kt as of the 00z update so I would imagine the NHC will keep it as such.
https://i.ibb.co/xhMPVdk/LATEST.png

Your most important comment: "...granted it did not catch the entirety of the circulation"

Without the rest of the data this pass is not very useful.

[Aric Dunn]

I must say this has been a strange evolution today with the weird direction winds hitting this thing. caused some odd cloud patterns.

[eastcoastFL]

Large anticyclone to the SE.
Note: GFS has the anticyclone to the NE.
Watching if shear tears this apart or if outflow is enhanced.
It needs to keep firing convection to survive.
Any prolonged lull in convection will likely cause the anticyclone to dissipate and kill it.
Any strengthening in convection and anticyclone could move closer.
Bear in mind that shear gradients create updrafts that do fire off convection.
Its really watch and see what happens at this point.

https://i.imgur.com/ntRBfS9.gif

Good point about the shear gradients creating updrafts with convection. Isaias did that every night on its approach to SFL but he convection never amounted to anything

[eastcoastFL]

I must say this has been a strange evolution today with the weird direction winds hitting this thing. caused some odd cloud patterns.

I missed the first half of the day. What weird wind directions did you see?

[Aric Dunn]

What an odd storm. A recent ASCAT pass did not really detect any 35kt+ windbarbs, it appears (although granted it did not catch the entirety of the circulation). Probably is technically back down to a TD, but ATCF still has it at 40kt as of the 00z update so I would imagine the NHC will keep it as such.
https://i.ibb.co/xhMPVdk/LATEST.png

this would place it west and south of the previous position. despite the convection appearing to lift wnw to nw.. the llc has been pretty steady 290 to 295. subtracting out this mornings slight jump nw into the convection.

some subtle shifts inching closer to clipping the NE islands.

[EquusStorm]

As much as I'd love to see a strong Josephine, I'm not convinced it's going to hit the NHC intensity forecast or last as long as indicated; I realize they're having to gradually decrease expectations and not suddenly cutting the forecast in a big swing but that lil window is closing soon. Might well survive the shear as a remnant low and get interesting next week but guess we'll see. Nice thing to watch to pass the time before peak season starts ramping up though.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is very clear and south and west of the 11pm advisory. not a lot.

14.4N vs 14.8( NHC)

[Aric Dunn]

i know it has been said before.. but this has some serious analogous Synoptics features that are freakishly similar to Andrew.

[sma10]

i know it has been said before.. but this has some serious analogous Synoptics features that are freakishly similar to Andrew.

What specifically?

[Jr0d]

i know it has been said before.. but this has some serious analogous Synoptics features that are freakishly similar to Andrew.

What specifically?

The low developing off of North Carolina is one.