ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

NHC still sticking with it hooking west. Peak upped to 80mph.
https://i.imgur.com/IFr6cvt.png

I really don’t like how long the NHC has it be a hurricane and stall over 29-30C waters. Yes, dry air will be present, but low shear once the trough moves out means it won’t be shoved into the core that hard, and there is a chance the core could retain a nice moisture pocket. If such a pocket forms, we might have to watch out for another Sally-like surprise.

And then there’s the fact that Beta seemingly wants to tour the landfall points of Hanna, Laura, and potentially Sally. What a jerk.

2020 just really wants every single spot on the gulf coast to be hit this year...
Yeah I agree the amount of time this will have is very concerning

[SconnieCane]

NHC still sticking with it hooking west. Peak upped to 80mph.
https://i.imgur.com/IFr6cvt.png

I really don’t like how long the NHC has it be a hurricane and stall over 29-30C waters. Yes, dry air will be present, but low shear once the trough moves out means it won’t be shoved into the core that hard, and there is a chance the core could retain a nice moisture pocket. If such a pocket forms, we might have to watch out for another Sally-like surprise.

And then there’s the fact that Beta seemingly wants to tour the landfall points of Hanna, Laura, and potentially Sally. What a jerk.

If I'm not mistaken, Beta '05 was also the most troublesome (from a land-impact perspective) of the Greeks that year. Ironic, given the other connotations of that term.

Although I guess that remains to be seen, since Alpha '20 already made landfall and who knows how many more there will be.

[ClarCari]

RI has been all but guaranteed for storms that finally stack and get a tight center and every landfalling gulf storm this year (excluding Cristobal and Marco for good reasons) has done just that at some point. It’s the middle of September and I see no reason Beta will be any different

[catskillfire51]

there are multiple wind maximum well away from the center fixes. this wind maximum also have curvature. they are also down shear and typically this type of set up leads to reformations.

the ridge is building in quickly so any furter reformations are unlikely after this one.

so now we wait to see how strong the ridge is and the orientation of the ridge.

So is that 996mb latest one the center or you think it will move further?

from the varrying wind directions. the circ is pretty elongated with a distinct wind maximum to the NE... another reformation is possible.

Good call it looks like the too lobes are coming together on IR now.

[Tireman4]

Boy, what a year and it is not even over.

[Steve]

RI has been all but guaranteed for storms that finally stack and get a tight center and every landfalling gulf storm this year (excluding Cristobal and Marco for good reasons) has done just that at some point. It’s the middle of September and I see no reason Beta will be any different

NHC gets it to H, but only for a couple days. Probably the combination of dry continental air and westerlies fairly far south would keep some kind of lid on it longer term. Indeed Levi shows the differences from the GFS and HWRF it tonight’s video. On the GFS, the dry air wraps around the center but leaves the core intact. This causes a spirally looking system with an Eastern feeder line. It gives it more of a fall storm look but keeps it fairly strong storm. HWRF gets dry air wrapped in and moves into STX and weakens to where when it hooks NE later in the track (backwards ? shaped track) it’s much weaker. Logic says trust the HWRF, but it’s not always right. So?

[SoupBone]

RI has been all but guaranteed for storms that finally stack and get a tight center and every landfalling gulf storm this year (excluding Cristobal and Marco for good reasons) has done just that at some point. It’s the middle of September and I see no reason Beta will be any different

NHC gets it to H, but only for a couple days. Probably the combination of dry continental air and westerlies fairly far south would keep some kind of lid on it longer term. Indeed Levi shows the differences from the GFS and HWRF it tonight’s video. On the GFS, the dry air wraps around the center but leaves the core intact. This causes a spirally looking system with an Eastern feeder line. It gives it more of a fall storm look but keeps it fairly strong storm. HWRF gets dry air wrapped in and moves into STX and weakens to where when it hooks NE later in the track (backwards ? shaped track) it’s much weaker. Logic says trust the HWRF, but it’s not always right. So?

The HWRF has been pretty good this year, but both my paid weather service guys and the NHC seem to not buy into that solution of it burying itself into Central Texas. This thing is moving fast too.

[ClarCari]

RI has been all but guaranteed for storms that finally stack and get a tight center and every landfalling gulf storm this year (excluding Cristobal and Marco for good reasons) has done just that at some point. It’s the middle of September and I see no reason Beta will be any different

NHC gets it to H, but only for a couple days. Probably the combination of dry continental air and westerlies fairly far south would keep some kind of lid on it longer term. Indeed Levi shows the differences from the GFS and HWRF it tonight’s video. On the GFS, the dry air wraps around the center but leaves the core intact. This causes a spirally looking system with an Eastern feeder line. It gives it more of a fall storm look but keeps it fairly strong storm. HWRF gets dry air wrapped in and moves into STX and weakens to where when it hooks NE later in the track (backwards ? shaped track) it’s much weaker. Logic says trust the HWRF, but it’s not always right. So?

Thing is the NHC can never put RI in their forecast bc it’s unpredictable how much it can strengthen during a phase, so their intensity guidance is based on if the storms behaves and went through gradual strengthening, which has hardly ever been the case this year. The dry air and shear can help but only so much.

[Aric Dunn]

Surface obs indicating something up around 26.5 N.. a full degree farther north than the advisory.

looks like 00z models will be off..

[DucaCane]

Beta needs to slow down if she’s going to make the turn.

[Horn1991]

Beta needs to slow down if she’s going to make the turn.

Agreed

[HurricaneBrain]

Absolutely

Surface obs indicating something up around 26.5 N.. a full degree farther north than the advisory.

looks like 00z models will be off..

https://i.ibb.co/qJZVdPp/Capture.png

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1307167618240053248

[SoupBone]

If the GFS is to be believed, it throws a huge wrench into the NHC's official forecast. At 174 hours (Saturday), it's still sitting SE (by a good distance) of Corpus Christi. I have no idea what's going on anymore.

I know this is not the models thread...

[catskillfire51]

With 12 hour time difference view you can see the movement of the high.

[Steve]

RI has been all but guaranteed for storms that finally stack and get a tight center and every landfalling gulf storm this year (excluding Cristobal and Marco for good reasons) has done just that at some point. It’s the middle of September and I see no reason Beta will be any different

NHC gets it to H, but only for a couple days. Probably the combination of dry continental air and westerlies fairly far south would keep some kind of lid on it longer term. Indeed Levi shows the differences from the GFS and HWRF it tonight’s video. On the GFS, the dry air wraps around the center but leaves the core intact. This causes a spirally looking system with an Eastern feeder line. It gives it more of a fall storm look but keeps it fairly strong storm. HWRF gets dry air wrapped in and moves into STX and weakens to where when it hooks NE later in the track (backwards ? shaped track) it’s much weaker. Logic says trust the HWRF, but it’s not always right. So?

Thing is the NHC can never put RI in their forecast bc it’s unpredictable how much it can strengthen during a phase, so their intensity guidance is based on if the storms behaves and went through gradual strengthening, which has hardly ever been the case this year. The dry air and shear can help but only so much.

For sure. They upped the H days on it in the last advisory (til Tuesday), so they see potential.

[CrimsonCollins]

What an interesting year. Could we see a similar track to Hurricane/TS Harvey from 2017?? Can anyone provide any insight on what we could expect in SETX- Beaumont area??

[tailgater]

Dry air starting to get entrained to Beta which should keep it from continuing to deepen.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar, sat, and surface obs.. definitely showing something up at 26.5 north..

environemnt should improve quite a bit overnight.

and the dry air is well behind the boundary not affecting the system at all.

[Steve]

Radar, sat, and surface obs.. definitely showing something up at 26.5 north..

environemnt should improve quite a bit overnight.

and the dry air is well behind the boundary not affecting the system at all.

Assuming a NE track won’t last, how far North it gets (27? 27.5?) could matter for surge and tidal flooding along the TX coast.