ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[Owasso]

Getting closer to the ULAC.

[ScottNAtlanta]

:double:

https://i.imgur.com/M8y6OQt.png

There you have it...the shrimp shape that comes before RI

[ElectricStorm]

This storm looks like it's about to make a run for the storm of the season on IR...

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon will be in the storm shortly. They are close to being south of Jamaica.

[LarryWx]

Look at what most of Honduras, NE Nicaragua, N Guatemala, S Belize, and SE MX are facing less than 2 weeks after Eta left the scene. As bad as Eta was (worst since Mitch with even higher rivers than Mitch in at least NW Honduras due to already very wet soils), getting another that soon is hard to fathom and could very well place 2020 in unchartered territory for flooding in some of those areas, especially N Honduras, NE Nicaragua, and C Guatemala. I fear the worst coming out of this..so prayers that the vulnerable can get to safety are recommended. This is from the 0Z GFS:

[aspen]

The way Iota is rapidly organizing, I think we could be looking at a Category 4 by tomorrow night. We’ll have to see how strong it is now and how fast the pressure is falling, which we will know within the hour.

[supercane4867]

Unfortunately, the combined impact of Eta and Iota in those regions is going to make Mitch look like an afternoon thunderstorm.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm thinking recon finds a 65 to 70kt Cat 1. Convection is impressive, but as we saw with Eta looks don't necessarily mean everything, especially in November where extremely cold convection is easier to get than in peak season... Iota is still not yet aligned with the anticyclone to the SW so there is likely a bit of shear still effecting it, although that appears to not be having much of an effect, at least on satellite. All this being said though, I think Iota is primed for an RI/ERI phase tomorrow and I will not be surprised at all if it tries to beat Eta for the storm of the season intensity-wise.

[aspen]

Oh no....I think recon stopped reporting.

[ClarCari]

Oh no....I think recon stopped reporting.

They had a 20 minute delay between about 11:38-11:58 and started working again so probz a fluke. Hopefully.

[djones65]

You jinxed the recon!!!
You should know better!!!!!!!!

[djones65]

You guaranteed a go saying they were past the point of no return ....
Shhhhhh!

[aspen]

*aggressively presses refresh button on the Tropical Tidbits recon page*

[cycloneye]

Here we go. Plane decends to operational altitud so let's see what Iota has.

[djones65]

I will hope but am gonna watch the fight.
Dang i wish you hadnt cleared recon prematurely

[ClarCari]

Knew it. They may have delay issues through the night probablyyyy...but at least they are safe and running!

[djones65]

Recon gods have forgiven you
So have I
lol

[aspen]

Data is delayed on Tropical Tidbits. For now, we’ll have to track it based on the raw data Crazy is posting in the recon thread.

[ElectricStorm]

At least recon is actually going to be out there this time, despite the transmission issues

[Owasso]

71kt FL and 63kt SFMR so far. I don't think they've hit the center just yet though