ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

Laura's probably on track for Cat 5 landfall at this point. Intensification will only get quicker once a closed-off eye is formed

Cam down there. That is an extremely rare event and it's unlikely for any given storm to achieve that. 2 in 3 years would be insane.

[ConvergenceZone]

I have a feeling that the weather channel will have 24 hour coverage all the way through Friday just to cover the aftermath of Laura

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like hurricane force flight-lvl winds are wayyy further out in the NE eyewall then the NW

Makes sense. The NE quad seems to be the quadrant where the deep convection is most removed from what is setting up to be the eyewall. Any kind of RI is probably still a couple hours off, but the organization trend going on is dramatic. Its only a matter of time.

[LAwxrgal]

I feel sick right now.

Laura has all the makings of a classic Gulf monster, in the vein of Katrina, Rita, Harvey, Ike, etc.

I have advised my loved ones who live in the Beaumont area (a place I've visited and am fond of) to please leave, and thankfully, they have heeded my advice.

[MississippiWx]

Laura's probably on track for Cat 5 landfall at this point. Intensification will only get quicker once a closed-off eye is formed

Cam down there. That is an extremely rare event and it's unlikely for any given storm to achieve that. 2 in 3 years would be insane.

Current conditions don’t care too much about past statistics. Just ask people in Houston about a 1 in 500 year flood.

While it is difficult to get a Category 5 in any setup, it’s not unrealistic in the environment Laura will be traversing.

[Kingarabian]

Starting to look great on Dvorak. CDO getting pretty thick.

[NotoSans]

Weird. Winds in NE quadrant aren’t as strong as expected even as the plane nears the center. Perhaps the RMW has contracted (which means faster intensification) or winds haven’t really caught up.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

This is fun to watch for sure...

https://i.imgur.com/JqZNBf8.gif

Not for those directly in its path.

Yeah it’s like every hurricane we have to remind people not to shame people for saying things like this. Of course they didn’t mean that but we are all members of this forum because we are fascinated by these storms. Y’all quit guilt-tripping supercane.

Well you guys are handling this better than r/tropicalweather does, then . I feel like humans have an inherent fascination with dangerous natural things, as some sort of evolutionary adaptation. It's a delicate balance for sure.

I am currently in the same mix of fascination and absolute fear I had during Harvey. I of course would have rather this storm not be coming towards me, but nobody's feelings affect it, so you can feel whatever as far as I am concerned.

I am reminded of the famous quote by Rainer Marie Wilke:
"Let everything happen to you
Beauty and terror
Just keep going
No feeling is final."

[CyclonicFury]

Sometimes in these Gulf of Mexico hurricanes, it takes a long time for winds to respond to pressure falls. For instance, Harvey in 2017 remained a high-end Category 2 for a while as its pressure fell into the mid-940s.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Laura deepen below 970 mb before it attains Category 2 status.

[cfisher]

Are there any track implications for a stronger storm?

[Hammy]

Laura's probably on track for Cat 5 landfall at this point. Intensification will only get quicker once a closed-off eye is formed

Cam down there. That is an extremely rare event and it's unlikely for any given storm to achieve that. 2 in 3 years would be insane.

Current conditions don’t care too much about past statistics. Just ask people in Houston about a 1 in 500 year flood.

While it is difficult to get a Category 5 in any setup, it’s not unrealistic in the environment Laura will be traversing.

Laura's core is still broad at the moment. While I'm not going to rule out rapid intensification, internal conditions aren't there for doubling in intensity in 24 hours, and beyond that is shear from the approaching trough.

[supercane4867]

SAB gave out T5.0 for 00z fix. DG eye surrounded by B.

TXNT23 KNES 252357
TCSNTL

A. 13L (LAURA)

B. 25/2331Z

C. 25.1N

D. 88.9W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.0/5.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A DG EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND
EMBEDDED IN LG FOR A DT=5.0 MET AND PT ARE UNDEFINED BECAUSE SYSTEM WAS
OVERLAND 24HRS AGO. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the pressure could come in at 981mb.

[Kingarabian]

ADT is waking up:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2020 Time : 235020 UTC
Lat : 25:01:24 N Lon : 88:57:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 984.2mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 4.1 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -24.0C Cloud Region Temp : -66.6C

Scene Type : EYE

The Raw numbers might fluctuate up and down until it keys in on the correct scene type though. It might detect the eye and then go back to to a CDO or an embedded center area.

[Kazmit]

3mb drop since the last pass.

[Do_For_Love]

Always crazy to watch that eyewall build with a rapid convective burst, lol. One of the coolest things we are privileged enough to watch hurricanes do with our technology.

NHC has her at 85 mph for 8pm, which is right on track from this mornings prediction. Not seeing much of a reason to think we are looking at anything other than a major hurricane landfall here, somewhere near the TX/LA border. I heard on the news tonight they were saying that due to the flatness of the land there, the surge (predicted at 9-13 feet) might travel up to 30 miles inland. Absolutely insane...I would be GTFO if I lived around there personally.

[Blown Away]

NHC notes SW shear to impact Laura 6-12 hours prior to landfall.

[MGC]

Outflow is excellent in all quadrants except the west side of Laura. I expect Laura to be a solid cat 2 by morning.....NGC

[jlauderdal]

I am a broken record but we watched Michael go from a forecast Cat 2 at landfall to a Cat 5 at landfall.

My plan is for a high Cat 4 and will be glad if wrong.

Chuck

Wise decision but is the difference between cat and cat 4 preps?

[Gums]

Salute!

Shades of Rita and Ike, and for the old folks here that remember the 50's, Audrey.

By Friday morning many folks will have lost their weekend or summer cabins on the LA and east TX coast. Thank god we now have super warnings that we didn't have 60 years ago when Audrey wiped out a few hundred folks in Cameron. For those in the urban areas that lose electricity and have moderate roof and window damage, go look at the Wunderground Katrina surge series, and for now see these two pics of the coast where Laura is projected to strike. The current surge forecasts are grim.







Prayers here for all down on the coast.

Gums sends...