ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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aspen
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#481 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:47 am

cycloneye wrote:Hopefully there is not a boat out there but the AF plane is doing circles.

https://i.imgur.com/icH02LI.png

They were just descending to operational altitude. They’ve continued on their way into the storm.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#482 Postby plasticup » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:48 am

tiger_deF wrote:That's some wind radius, plane has been going NE from the eye for 30 minutes and still picking up hurricane force flight level winds


he's a big boy no doubt
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#483 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:52 am

plasticup wrote:
tiger_deF wrote:That's some wind radius, plane has been going NE from the eye for 30 minutes and still picking up hurricane force flight level winds


he's a big boy no doubt

He’s earned his nickname of Titanic Teddy.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#484 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:54 am

NW side is almost as strong.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#485 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:56 am

Kazmit wrote:NW side is almost as strong.

And SFMR is much higher.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#486 Postby Do_For_Love » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:59 am

aspen wrote:
plasticup wrote:
tiger_deF wrote:That's some wind radius, plane has been going NE from the eye for 30 minutes and still picking up hurricane force flight level winds


he's a big boy no doubt

He’s earned his nickname of Titanic Teddy.


Gonna be terrible Teddy if the models keep moving W
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#487 Postby NotoSans » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:01 pm

Extrap 949.8mb this pass so pressure likely holding steady right now.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#488 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:02 pm

NotoSans wrote:Extrap 949.8mb this pass so pressure likely holding steady right now.

Extrap pressure is lower than last extrap pressure
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#489 Postby Blinhart » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:02 pm

So it shouldn't be long before this is a Cat 4, which will cause it to have it's own mind and atmospheric bubble. We all have seen powerful systems go where ever they want even against all logic.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#490 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:03 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
NotoSans wrote:Extrap 949.8mb this pass so pressure likely holding steady right now.

Extrap pressure is lower than last extrap pressure

Barely...
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#491 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:03 pm

Blinhart wrote:So it shouldn't be long before this is a Cat 4, which will cause it to have it's own mind and atmospheric bubble. We all have seen powerful systems go where ever they want even against all logic.

It will follow the steering to the NW toward Bermuda. That’s pretty much set in stone.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#492 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:04 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#493 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:04 pm

The eastern eyewall is starting to look better.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#494 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:04 pm

wx98 wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
NotoSans wrote:Extrap 949.8mb this pass so pressure likely holding steady right now.

Extrap pressure is lower than last extrap pressure

Barely...

Last extrap pressure was 953 so
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#495 Postby Blinhart » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:06 pm

wx98 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:So it shouldn't be long before this is a Cat 4, which will cause it to have it's own mind and atmospheric bubble. We all have seen powerful systems go where ever they want even against all logic.

It will follow the steering to the NW toward Bermuda. That’s pretty much set in stone.



Just like he has been following the forecast points the whole time, been on the SW side of guidance throughout its entire life.

Also those atmospheric bubbles screw everything up.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#496 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:06 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
wx98 wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:Extrap pressure is lower than last extrap pressure

Barely...

Last extrap pressure was 953 so

It was 950
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#497 Postby NotoSans » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:06 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
wx98 wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:Extrap pressure is lower than last extrap pressure

Barely...

Last extrap pressure was 953 so

Last extrap is 950.2mb.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#498 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:06 pm

Steadily intensifying.

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#499 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:07 pm

NotoSans wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
wx98 wrote:Barely...

Last extrap pressure was 953 so

Last extrap is 950.2mb.

That’s a 0.3 mbar/hr deepening rate from these two passes. Not particularly impressive...for now.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#500 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:08 pm

Ready for the AF plane first pass.

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