ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[PEA_RIDGE]

Radar, sat, and surface obs.. definitely showing something up at 26.5 north..

environemnt should improve quite a bit overnight.

and the dry air is well behind the boundary not affecting the system at all.

Assuming a NE track won’t last, how far North it gets (27? 27.5?) could matter for surge and tidal flooding along the TX coast.

looks to be almost at 27

[PEA_RIDGE]

Beta graphics https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/BETA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

Kind of reminds me of Hurricane Marco when NHC said it was going to turn westward but never did.

Marco graphics https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/MARCO_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

[Steve]

Radar, sat, and surface obs.. definitely showing something up at 26.5 north..

environemnt should improve quite a bit overnight.

and the dry air is well behind the boundary not affecting the system at all.

Assuming a NE track won’t last, how far North it gets (27? 27.5?) could matter for surge and tidal flooding along the TX coast.

looks to be almost at 27

Recon found that low pressure a bit ago at 26.4/26.5 or so. NHC had it at 26.8N at 7pm tomorrow in the forecast advisory, so maybe 28.2 for the turn?

[catskillfire51]

Assuming a NE track won’t last, how far North it gets (27? 27.5?) could matter for surge and tidal flooding along the TX coast.

looks to be almost at 27

Recon found that low pressure a bit ago at 26.4/26.5 or so. NHC had it at 26.8N at 7pm tomorrow in the forecast advisory, so maybe 28.2 for the turn?

HWRF is around 27.5 in about 24 hours for the turn.

[PEA_RIDGE]

Assuming a NE track won’t last, how far North it gets (27? 27.5?) could matter for surge and tidal flooding along the TX coast.

looks to be almost at 27

Recon found that low pressure a bit ago at 26.4/26.5 or so. NHC had it at 26.8N at 7pm tomorrow in the forecast advisory, so maybe 28.2 for the turn?

im thinking it doesnt turn at all... IF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOESNT FORM ON THE SE U.S. SOMEWHERE AROUND NW GA TO WEST TENNESEE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ERODES TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE ONE TO THE WEST PUSHES EAST SOME MORE THEN THIS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE ON THE N OR NE TRACK..

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[catskillfire51]

looks to be almost at 27

Recon found that low pressure a bit ago at 26.4/26.5 or so. NHC had it at 26.8N at 7pm tomorrow in the forecast advisory, so maybe 28.2 for the turn?

im thinking it doesnt turn at all... IF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOESNT FORM ON THE SE U.S. SOMEWHERE AROUND NW GA TO WEST TENNESEE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ERODES TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE ONE TO THE WEST PUSHES EAST SOME MORE THEN THIS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE ON THE N OR NE TRACK..

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

The high to the North is already formed and is moving South. The problem is the trough to the west isn't pushing to the east as fast as the high is pushing south.

[PEA_RIDGE]

Recon found that low pressure a bit ago at 26.4/26.5 or so. NHC had it at 26.8N at 7pm tomorrow in the forecast advisory, so maybe 28.2 for the turn?

im thinking it doesnt turn at all... IF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOESNT FORM ON THE SE U.S. SOMEWHERE AROUND NW GA TO WEST TENNESEE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ERODES TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE ONE TO THE WEST PUSHES EAST SOME MORE THEN THIS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE ON THE N OR NE TRACK..

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

The high to the North is already formed and is moving South. The problem is the trough to the west isn't pushing to the east as fast as the high is pushing south.

correct. i was looking at old data and did see the H to the north. yes that trough is not moving at the speed it should be and i see this as steering to the N or NE for the time being, but we will have to see what the trough does over the next day or so

[Sciencerocks]

Lets say this did another Harvey but into Galveston and Houston area killing 500 pepole. Since it is a greek name it can't be retired. I think it is extremely unlikely to do such a thing but it is food for thought. This storm is special!

[ConvergenceZone]

Dry air starting to get entrained to Beta which should keep it from continuing to deepen.

https://i.imgur.com/94YgDUg.png

yea, looking at that satellite, it doesn't look very impressive for being a 60 mph storm. I've seen 40-45 mph storms look better.

[Steejo91]

Definitely agree Beta is looking awfully ragged tonight. NHC mentioned shear is supposed to lessen over the next day or so. Let's see if it can keep up the intense convection through D/Min

[catskillfire51]

Looks like an organizing storm to me

[hurricanehunter69]

Beta looks very impressive to me. Very impressive spin with robust energy on mimic-tpw. The storm looks like it's already starting to stack too. I would plan on subsequent advisories gradually increasing intensity, ending up with a hurricane (much) stronger than currently forecasted. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[catskillfire51]

These images are 4 hours and 50 minutes apart, first image being the earlier one. BETA is consolidating and organizing.

[bbadon]

I see a storm that has continually reformed to the northeast due to shear and currently has a cdo expanding to the southwest and likely strengthening ahead of schedule because of it. Being from SW La still recuperating from Laura with debris everywhere including ditches this is not going to end well and sooner than anticipated.

[Craters]

Definitely agree Beta is looking awfully ragged tonight. NHC mentioned shear is supposed to lessen over the next day or so. Let's see if it can keep up the intense convection through D/Min

Gotta say that I wouldn't be sorry if it didn't...

[tailgater]

Some serious lightening going on in that CoD

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Gulf_Coast-13-48-0-250-1&checked=map-gusts-glm_flash&colorbar=undefined

[BRweather]

Are we all looking at the same Tropical Storm Beta? If anything this storm looks the best it has in its short life. It is nighttime, but you can follow the low level flow on shortwave satellite and see that the center is most definitely tucked in under the persistent deep convection. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Gulf_Coast-07-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Yeah there is some shear, but the storm is doing a good job of fighting off all the elements and with the shear expected to relax Sunday and Monday I definitely think this has a good chance to make it to hurricane sooner than later.

[eastcoastFL]

looks to be almost at 27

Recon found that low pressure a bit ago at 26.4/26.5 or so. NHC had it at 26.8N at 7pm tomorrow in the forecast advisory, so maybe 28.2 for the turn?

im thinking it doesnt turn at all... IF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOESNT FORM ON THE SE U.S. SOMEWHERE AROUND NW GA TO WEST TENNESEE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ERODES TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE ONE TO THE WEST PUSHES EAST SOME MORE THEN THIS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE ON THE N OR NE TRACK..

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

That’s a whole lot of “ifs” but I guess anything is possible

[PEA_RIDGE]

Recon found that low pressure a bit ago at 26.4/26.5 or so. NHC had it at 26.8N at 7pm tomorrow in the forecast advisory, so maybe 28.2 for the turn?

im thinking it doesnt turn at all... IF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOESNT FORM ON THE SE U.S. SOMEWHERE AROUND NW GA TO WEST TENNESEE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ERODES TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE ONE TO THE WEST PUSHES EAST SOME MORE THEN THIS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE ON THE N OR NE TRACK..

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

That’s a whole lot of “ifs” but I guess anything is possible

i mean it is 2020

[Jagno]

I am now living in a 5th wheel camper in my yard in front of my totaled home from Laura. I've never lived in a camper during a severe storm let alone anything tropical. Beta is scaring the hell out of alot of people here because of the immense damage already and debris mountains inside of every ditch and drainage area around.