ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Zeta couldn't find a better place to meander if it tried. It's currently over the hottest and highest OHC waters in the Atlantic, and even if it spends days in the area I doubt significant upwelling will be a factor. The atmospheric conditions will need to be right, but if Zeta fully stacks I think a major is absolutely in the cards

This! 100% agree!

[NDG]

Zeta couldn't find a better place to meander if it tried. It's currently over the hottest and highest OHC waters in the Atlantic, and even if it spends days in the area I doubt significant upwelling will be a factor. The atmospheric conditions will need to be right, but if Zeta fully stacks I think a major is absolutely in the cards

Not much upwelling occurs from a meandering weak tropical storm.

[aspen]

Zeta continues the odd trend of October 2020 WCar storms ending up further south than modeled or expected, and posing a threat to the Yucatán. Would a far stronger storm get turned a little more to the north?

[supercane4867]

Starting to get the look of a classic Western Caribbean system that's about to blow up.

[aspen]

So far, the HWRF and HMON seem to have the best initialization of Zeta, and they show quick stacking within 12 hours and a phase of RI into a hurricane before landfall in 42-48 hours. That would give Zeta 30-36 hours for rapid intensification, excluding any EWRCs or unexpected bursts of ML shear, over the highest OHC in the world.

A deepening rate of 2 mb/hr over 30 hours would get this to a 930-940 mbar Cat 4 hurricane, depending on how strong it is when RI starts.

[Aric Dunn]

I see it managed to reform farther south. must of been some northerly shear undercuting it. Eitherway its current position is much slower than the 12z and 18z models yesterday.

Assuming it also makes it a good deal slower than 00z ( have not looked yet).

12z models today are going to be interesting since the timing of the trough and how much longitude Delta makes before turning NE.

THe long it takes to move the more likely we will see east shifts.

[kevin]

Not saying this will get close to Delta's insane intensification rate, but I'm getting a lot of similar vibes right now from looking at the sat images.

[robbielyn]

I see it managed to reform farther south. must of been some northerly shear undercuting it. Eitherway its current position is much slower than the 12z and 18z models yesterday.

Assuming it also makes it a good deal slower than 00z ( have not looked yet).

12z models today are going to be interesting since the timing of the trough and how much longitude Zeta makes before turning NE.

THe longer it takes to move, the more likely we will see east shifts.

[aspen]

Part of the LLC appears to be exposed on visible. I guess shear is a little higher then anticipated for the time being.

[Aric Dunn]

Part of the LLC appears to be exposed on visible. I guess shear is a little higher then anticipated for the time being.

The odd part is.. the shear is northerly.

[aspen]

Part of the LLC appears to be exposed on visible. I guess shear is a little higher then anticipated for the time being.

The odd part is.. the shear is northerly.

Why is that odd? Is it because there’s supposed to be an anticyclone over Zeta?

[Aric Dunn]

Part of the LLC appears to be exposed on visible. I guess shear is a little higher then anticipated for the time being.

The odd part is.. the shear is northerly.

Why is that odd? Is it because there’s supposed to be an anticyclone over Zeta?

Yeah shear analysis is not showing anu northerly shear until you get to around Jamica... on the eastern flank of the upper high.

So there must be some low to mid level northerly shear keeping the convection to the south and causung this to reform and drift in the wrong direction..

[Aric Dunn]

Another thing to note.. .

the LLC is sliglhty exposed an quite elongated..

But I point your attention to the motion of the convection/tower around the MLC.. they are building and rotating around which means we could be seeing another reformtion farther south.

Have to watch that convection if it continues in that area.

[NDG]

The odd part is.. the shear is northerly.

Why is that odd? Is it because there’s supposed to be an anticyclone over Zeta?

Yeah shear analysis is not showing anu northerly shear until you get to around Jamica... on the eastern flank of the upper high.

So there must be some low to mid level northerly shear keeping the convection to the south and causung this to reform and drift in the wrong direction..

There's clearly some light northerly shear in the mid to upper levels over Zeta.

[aspen]

Another thing to note.. .

the LLC is sliglhty exposed an quite elongated..

But I point your attention to the motion of the convection/tower around the MLC.. they are building and rotating around which means we could be seeing another reformtion farther south.

Have to watch that convection if it continues in that area.

https://i.ibb.co/Bq7986g/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/MD5cGPz/LABELS-19700101-000000-49.gif

Oh fun, more center relocations and screwing up the models and forecast track even more. At least this time the LLC and MLC aren’t that far apart.

[GCANE]

Last hot tower moved east to west.
Good chance CoC may reformed south of that path which would be a relocation south of the current fix.

[underthwx]

Starting to get the look of a classic Western Caribbean system that's about to blow up.

https://i.imgur.com/MkD853w.gif

That is a cool image man.....I hate the destruction they can bring about....but they are a sight to see...

[Blown Away]

Last hot tower moved east to west.
Good chance CoC may reformed south of that path which would be a relocation south of the current fix.

TS watch may be needed for N coast of Honduras IMO.

[Sanibel]

That trough of moisture that branches off to the NE is tugging at Zeta and could cause it to rip apart if it isn't strong enough to organize and separate...

My money is on those strong SST's slowly winning and allowing Zeta to separate and form despite the dislocation and shear...

[underthwx]

I made mention yesterday, that I hope Zeta won't just sit and spin down there, this cyclone can really take off, and get intense, given the current environment it resides in.....