ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/Wxmanms1/status/1298439228578312193

Even the HWRF the "Bullish" model is underestimating Laura right now

3z is 11 pm EDT, so we actually still have a bit for the pressure discrepancy to grow even more between the HWRF and what's observed. That may also partly explain the location differences as well.

Thats scary when a cane is beating the HWRF intensity estimates

Interesting it correctly forecast the strongest winds being on the SE quad at the moment, most other models had them on the NE.

[cfisher]

Good lord that hot tower on the eastern eye wall is intense. We're likely going to see another big pressure drop.

[FixySLN]

Forsee gradual eastern shifts in the forecast due to future sheer, shape, and intensity.

Friendly reminder than I'm NOT a pro met and my OPINION should NOT be taken as gospel. Please follow the instruction of your local government.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks p*ssed off.

[HurricaneEdouard]

3z is 11 pm EDT, so we actually still have a bit for the pressure discrepancy to grow even more between the HWRF and what's observed. That may also partly explain the location differences as well.

Thats scary when a cane is beating the HWRF intensity estimates

Interesting it correctly forecast the strongest winds being on the SE quad at the moment, most other models had them on the NE.

HWRF has been truly remarkable in nailing the short-term structure and satellite presentation of Laura since it was approaching the Caribbean. What it thinks Laura will look like in 12 hours, it probably will be (just a little bit stronger and slower, methinks).

[Steve]

Maybe some shear before landfall?

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1298414130404171779

It’s along the TX coastline. I don’t see any impacts until possibly the very end of the over water track.

[Blown Away]

Thats scary when a cane is beating the HWRF intensity estimates

Interesting it correctly forecast the strongest winds being on the SE quad at the moment, most other models had them on the NE.

HWRF has been truly remarkable in nailing the short-term structure and satellite presentation of Laura since it was approaching the Caribbean. What it thinks Laura will look like in 12 hours, it probably will be (just a little bit stronger and slower, methinks).

Nearly all the time a storm reaches Cat 3-5 the HWRF was accurate in predicting the intensity.

[eastcoastFL]

Not sure if mentioned, but the forward speed has come down. It is slightly behind in where models has it pegged for this time. Not sure if it will matter in the long run, but maybe worth noting.

What could that potentially mean?

Could go either way. More time over water could mean more strength. Could also mean she has time to undergo an eye wall replacement cycle which could slow down the intensity if she makes landfall in the middle of it. Probably won't mean too much unless its significantly slower

[sikkar]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... m=M&tz=STN

This station showing some impressive numbers although kinda far away from center.

[ConvergenceZone]

Forsee gradual eastern shifts in the forecast due to future sheer, shape, and intensity.

Friendly reminder than I'm NOT a pro met and my OPINION should NOT be taken as gospel. Please follow the instruction of your local government.

I don't know if this is truly the case though. I haven't heard it mentioned once on the weather channel that if the storm intensified significantly then the track will go more east. I mean that's pretty big, so I think that would be mentioned if that were the case.......

[eastcoastFL]

3z is 11 pm EDT, so we actually still have a bit for the pressure discrepancy to grow even more between the HWRF and what's observed. That may also partly explain the location differences as well.

Thats scary when a cane is beating the HWRF intensity estimates

Interesting it correctly forecast the strongest winds being on the SE quad at the moment, most other models had them on the NE.

It has been freakishly accurate on the IR presentation and radar predictions. It has to do with the upgrades that added additional live radar data and some other direct updates.

[ConvergenceZone]

Originally I thought it was growing larger, but based upon that image above, it's not growing in size, thank goodnesss....If there's one bright spot, WXMAN mentioned that this storm is way smaller in size than Rita, so that's a good thing at least......

[eastcoastFL]

Thats scary when a cane is beating the HWRF intensity estimates

Interesting it correctly forecast the strongest winds being on the SE quad at the moment, most other models had them on the NE.

HWRF has been truly remarkable in nailing the short-term structure and satellite presentation of Laura since it was approaching the Caribbean. What it thinks Laura will look like in 12 hours, it probably will be (just a little bit stronger and slower, methinks).

Yup. Since it hit PR its just been spot on with the IR and structural appearance. I had it side by side with live IR a few times during this storm and it was amazing.

[eastcoastFL]

Maybe some shear before landfall?

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1298414130404171779

It’s along the TX coastline. I don’t see any impacts until possibly the very end of the over water track.

And by then I think its forecast to start pulling away as she's coming in. I guess it's all about timing

[HurricaneEdouard]

Interesting it correctly forecast the strongest winds being on the SE quad at the moment, most other models had them on the NE.

HWRF has been truly remarkable in nailing the short-term structure and satellite presentation of Laura since it was approaching the Caribbean. What it thinks Laura will look like in 12 hours, it probably will be (just a little bit stronger and slower, methinks).

Nearly all the time a storm reaches Cat 3-5 the HWRF was accurate in predicting the intensity.

In all fairness, the HWRF is accurate in predicting the intensity of major hurricanes partly because it overintensifies hurricanes generally (a broken clock is right twice a day), but more impressive than the HWRF's intensity forecast for Laura (even though I do incidentally believe it will, at least, verify) is its short-term (6-12 hours) handling of structure and infrared satellite presentation; as another commentator mentioned, it has been freakishly good in that area for Laura. There's some great comparisons at pretty much every stage of development throughout the thread, showing the HWRF's satellite simulations versus the real deal.

[eastcoastFL]

Interesting it correctly forecast the strongest winds being on the SE quad at the moment, most other models had them on the NE.

HWRF has been truly remarkable in nailing the short-term structure and satellite presentation of Laura since it was approaching the Caribbean. What it thinks Laura will look like in 12 hours, it probably will be (just a little bit stronger and slower, methinks).

Nearly all the time a storm reaches Cat 3-5 the HWRF was accurate in predicting the intensity.

While that's true he's talking about how the model runs forecasted IR presentations have ended up being almost identical every time to what the actual IR presentation ends up looking like

[Ken711]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 25.2N 89.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 26.5N 91.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 28.7N 93.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 31.2N 93.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/0000Z 33.7N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/1200Z 36.0N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/0000Z 37.2N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0000Z 38.0N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/0000Z 42.0N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[supercane4867]

11PM advisory bumped peak intensity to 105kt

[Blinhart]

Forsee gradual eastern shifts in the forecast due to future sheer, shape, and intensity.

Friendly reminder than I'm NOT a pro met and my OPINION should NOT be taken as gospel. Please follow the instruction of your local government.

I don't know if this is truly the case though. I haven't heard it mentioned once on the weather channel that if the storm intensified significantly then the track will go more east. I mean that's pretty big, so I think that would be mentioned if that were the case.......

No because they want to make sure Houston is prepared just in case it doesn't end up at the state line or East of there. They don't want to look bad. All the latest models I have seen has shown a slight East shift.

[eastcoastFL]

10pm cdt

90mph 978mb