ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

The outflow boundaries have reached the Gulf of Mexico. Center is exposed SW of convection.

[Emmett_Brown]

Now that the LLC is exposed again, I wonder if we might see a wobble or 2 toward the coast like we did yesterday

[emeraldislenc]

WXMAN what do you think the conditions will be on Emerald Isle/Bogue Banks on Monday evening and Tuesday morning.
I value your opinion.
Thanks

[Beachside]

Watching the South Florida Water District Management radar, everything on the west side of the storm near the coast just completely disappears over the last few frames. It looks like there is almost zero rain on the west side of the storm out to almost 50 miles

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[xironman]

Oddly CIMSS shows conditions improving, but these maps have dodgy in the past.

[jlauderdal]

Just had the power flicker here. Peeking outside, there is a sideways drizzle. Hardcore stuff.

FPL reminding you to have a generator ready for anything Invest and higher

[jdjaguar]

The outflow boundaries have reached the Gulf of Mexico. Center is exposed SW of convection.

http://wxman57.com/images/outflow.JPG

Appears to be roughly 45-50 miles east of Vero.

[CronkPSU]

Watching the South Florida Water District Management radar, everything on the west side of the storm near the coast just completely disappears over the last few frames. It looks like there is almost zero rain on the west side of the storm out to almost 50 miles

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

yep...was noticing the same thing...looking at the differences between the IR/Visible and radar is mind numbing...like they are not even the same storm

[Sciencerocks]

[bcargile]

Checking in from North Topsail Beach. Not much to add, just wanted to chime and say thanks to all of the contributors on this site. Fingers crossed as we just finished our Florence repairs. Understanding things can change quickly, my main concern is erosion as of now.

[NDG]

It has pretty much stalled or barely moved since 2 PM EDST or meandered around.

Edit: Actually it jogged due north in the past hour and a half.

94700 2738N 07937W 8426 01477 9947 +251 +059 263006 008 017 000 03

[CronkPSU]

It has pretty much stalled or barely moved since 2 PM EDST or meandered around.

94700 2738N 07937W 8426 01477 9947 +251 +059 263006 008 017 000 03

I think it may just barely clip the Cape...not that anyone on the ground will notice, all the convection way off the coast

[wxman57]

Now that the LLC is exposed again, I wonder if we might see a wobble or 2 toward the coast like we did yesterday

One rule of thumb I've always used is that "the center always follows the convection", not the other way around. Basically, the orientation of the convection with respect to the center identifies the steering currents. If convection develops NW of the center, then it will move in that direction.

[ColdMiser123]

Actually a NNE jog since the previous center fix. Good news for short-term impacts in Florida, but wobbles back west closer to the coast are still possible.

[ava_ati]

It has pretty much stalled or barely moved since 2 PM EDST or meandered around.

94700 2738N 07937W 8426 01477 9947 +251 +059 263006 008 017 000 03

Yeah, I left around noon to do some shopping and without looking at the guidance real closely I was sort of expecting it to be at least near Cape Canaveral's latitude but it looks like it is in the roughly the same spot as it was when I left

[NDG]

Oddly CIMSS shows conditions improving, but these maps have dodgy in the past.

https://i.imgur.com/u9Vk6C0.gif

There is no way shear is only around 15 knots, sounding from Tampa showed westerly 25 knot winds hitting in the mid to upper levels.

[Vdogg]

I hate to be area-centric when folks to the south have more pressing concerns, but I can't tell, from anything I've seen thus far, how concerned I should be in VA's Tidewater area.

How susceptible is your exact area to coastal flooding? I ask because the tidal cycle will be running high Monday into Tuesday as is.

Extremely. We flood in summer thunderstorms and have minor tidal flooding often.

[ava_ati]

Actually a NNE jog since the previous center fix. Good news for short-term impacts in Florida, but wobbles back west closer to the coast are still possible.

We sure the LLC isn't just elongated... looks like they immediately turned right as soon as pressure dropped instead of crossing the "eye" to see where the west side picks up at

[Blown Away]

The outflow boundaries have reached the Gulf of Mexico. Center is exposed SW of convection.

http://wxman57.com/images/outflow.JPG

I’m directly SW of LLC and those this whispy clouds are producing light rain. Weird clouds, you can kinda see through them to blue sky and they still produce rain. Strange with all the high clouds sheared off.

[xironman]

Oddly CIMSS shows conditions improving, but these maps have dodgy in the past.

https://i.imgur.com/u9Vk6C0.gif

Yeah, that is why said take the maps with a grain of salt.