ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

According to the discussion they upped to 80 kt because they’re getting data from an AF flight that for some reason is not transmitting publicly.

Quite odd that the AF plane is not transmitting publicly.

It showed up in the data but it was probably delayed?


025700 2503N 08900W 7526 02392 9879 +164 //// 198060 062 077 013 01
025730 2503N 08857W 7493 02441 9895 +157 //// 191073 079 074 029 01
025800 2503N 08855W 7507 02425 9912 +152 //// 185074 079 064 051 01
025830 2503N 08853W 7498 02454 9936 +143 //// 189076 077 063 024 01
025900 2503N 08851W 7465 02499 9939 +144 //// 185081 082 056 023 01
025930 2503N 08848W 7498 02472 9957 +141 //// 181079 081 055 012 01
030000 2503N 08846W 7514 02462 9965 +147 +135 181076 077 053 008 00

[BensonTCwatcher]

Man! I hope folks have bugged out. The flooding is going to be bad on top of the heavy surge. Laura is set to bring some pain in 24 hours. Can’t forget the damage from Michael, still have pics on my phone. Praying for folks and hoping folks can get out. Hoping for weakening coming ashore vs strengthening. Cameron could see 14 ft. That’s no joke.

[PandaCitrus]

Best case scenario as far as reducing destruction would be a continued eastward slide in the track. If it goes 30 or more miles east of Port Arthur, they will have dodged the worst of the surge and winds. There's very low population in the immediate coast of southwest Louisiana and Lake Charles is 30 miles inland so there should be some weakening.

[Texashawk]

Feels like it needs to start moving NW in a hurry if the track is going to verify. If it stays moving 280-285 for a few more hours... could be an interesting night for the models

[Highteeld]

Cat 2 just around the corner

[TheDreamTraveler]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298450995698192384

[Hurricane Mike]

Laura looks to be the 3rd hurricane to hit the U.S. this year. (So far) Last time that happened was 2017.

[BensonTCwatcher]

IR showing more cloud tops that look colder than -80 Pushing what looks like some -90 on the SE quad. That’s going to keep dropping the pressure at a good clip. That’s a lot of heat transfer.

[cfisher]

IR showing more cloud tops that look colder than -80 Pushing what looks like some -90 on the SE quad. That’s going to keep dropping the pressure at a good clip. That’s a lot of heat transfer.

True but it also needs to start shrink those maximum winds closer to the core for better WISHE.

[PTPatrick]

Man! I hope folks have bugged out. The flooding is going to be bad on top of the heavy surge. Laura is set to bring some pain in 24 hours. Can’t forget the damage from Michael, still have pics on my phone. Praying for folks and hoping folks can get out. Hoping for weakening coming ashore vs strengthening. Cameron could see 14 ft. That’s no joke.

I did a little research and sounds like by and large Cameron parish has few permanent structures anymore. the entire county is under a mandatory evacuation...and based on the news report, the few thousand residents in that area were making and orderly exit today, many taking their boats, cattle and campers along with them. I am not sure but this may landfall in the least populated county/parish on the US gulf coast.

EDIT: i thought I was wrong...Kenedy county texas holds the least populated county on the coast trophy. But Cameron Parish is next.

[Ubuntwo]

Now some subsidence in the center - could precede the clearing of an eye

[abajan]

Pressure down to 978 mb based off of the dropsonde splashing at 980 mb with 21 KT surface wind.

Isn't that a cat 2 pressure? Significant drop from earlier today when we were at 991.

Perhaps. But we also need to factor in the expansion of Laura's hurricane force wind field. Not that long ago there was a hurricane practically everyone thought would become a Cat5 as it approached the US East Coast, due to the drop of its central pressure. Well, the hurricane grew larger instead of intensifying. In other words, it spread its energy over a larger area instead of maintaining its size while strengthening.

[cfisher]

This is about to be a massive eye I think

[Highteeld]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a period of leveling/slow drop off in the pressure for the next couple of hours while the winds pick up quicker. Stair step pattern on how it intensifies.

[Steve]

And by then I think its forecast to start pulling away as she's coming in. I guess it's all about timing

It was supposed to back up enough for Marco to get going too. It was a little more pesky though. It left a piece back that was spinning and split back but the trough kind of only slowly migrated west and held Marco at bay and even sheared the top off and continues to do so even now. Marco partially went under the eastern edge of the high clouds moving NE alone the trough edge as you could see at the end of daylight visible. But he was pulling SW to S at that point and is at a much lower steering level than the east side flow. You know the sw flow was strong with the storm and firing 100-200 miles to the northeast this afternoon. We only have a day and 3 hours until landfall. And with the east edge of the trough adjacent and even part of the boundary of the anticyclone over Laura, how much can it pull back now? I don’t know. I’m not trying to make or refute the argument either way. I’m just observing. Lots of lightning with that first outer band to our south. Many many strikes.

Steve are you saying what I think you are saying, East of state line?

I don’t know. The trough was one of the 3 main upper features that were going to matter along with high pressure from the east and the heat high in the plains and west of there. It also turns out that the narrow embedded longwave that’s been across TX at whatever level it is at has been moving very slowly west. So I don’t know that the SW flow along the TX Coast can really go anywhere fast enough to not be a western border. If it pulled back faster, there’s always a good chance that a storm would get pulled toward it. But if it doesn’t, it’s got to turn up.

What’s hard for me to gauge is that I like watching jetstream and high clouds on visible over anything else which you can’t get at night. WV helps me some but it’s harder to see the different cloud layers interact.

To answer your actual question, east of the border maybe 52% to 48%? Maybe right on the border? Hopefully someone will report on the buoys tomorrow. It’s probably going to be our best indication if it’s still unsettled by tomorrow afternoon.

[Blinhart]

Best case scenario as far as reducing destruction would be a continued eastward slide in the track. If it goes 30 or more miles east of Port Arthur, they will have dodged the worst of the surge and winds. There's very low population in the immediate coast of southwest Louisiana and Lake Charles is 30 miles inland so there should be some weakening.

However the Storm Surge will be going up 30 to 50 miles up stream, and with all the rain will be causing all types of flooding.

[Blinhart]

Best case scenario as far as reducing destruction would be a continued eastward slide in the track. If it goes 30 or more miles east of Port Arthur, they will have dodged the worst of the surge and winds. There's very low population in the immediate coast of southwest Louisiana and Lake Charles is 30 miles inland so there should be some weakening.

Delete

[Kingarabian]

Despite the improved outflow to the north today the banding to the south has decreased. Sorta taking on annularish look.

[Kingarabian]

It was supposed to back up enough for Marco to get going too. It was a little more pesky though. It left a piece back that was spinning and split back but the trough kind of only slowly migrated west and held Marco at bay and even sheared the top off and continues to do so even now. Marco partially went under the eastern edge of the high clouds moving NE alone the trough edge as you could see at the end of daylight visible. But he was pulling SW to S at that point and is at a much lower steering level than the east side flow. You know the sw flow was strong with the storm and firing 100-200 miles to the northeast this afternoon. We only have a day and 3 hours until landfall. And with the east edge of the trough adjacent and even part of the boundary of the anticyclone over Laura, how much can it pull back now? I don’t know. I’m not trying to make or refute the argument either way. I’m just observing. Lots of lightning with that first outer band to our south. Many many strikes.

Steve are you saying what I think you are saying, East of state line?

I don’t know. The trough was one of the 3 main upper features that were going to matter along with high pressure from the east and the heat high in the plains and west of there. It also turns out that the narrow embedded longwave that’s been across TX at whatever level it is at has been moving very slowly west. So I don’t know that the SW flow along the TX Coast can really go anywhere fast enough to not be a western border. If it pulled back faster, there’s always a good chance that a storm would get pulled toward it. But if it doesn’t, it’s got to turn up.

What’s hard for me to gauge is that I like watching jetstream and high clouds on visible over anything else which you can’t get at night. WV helps me some but it’s harder to see the different cloud layers interact.

To answer your actual question, east of the border maybe 52% to 48%? Maybe right on the border? Hopefully someone will report on the buoys tomorrow. It’s probably going to be our best indication if it’s still unsettled by tomorrow afternoon.

We'll see what the 00z models show but I'm worried that this keeps going more east than forecast and puts Lafayette in play.

[pcolaman]

This is about to be a massive eye I think

You can see there is a nice size eye that has formed now on the IR. and looks to be somewhat titled to the north.