ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

I am expecting another flare up this evening. Still a chance the Space Coast could get some of the stronger winds.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[chaser1]

Now that the LLC is exposed again, I wonder if we might see a wobble or 2 toward the coast like we did yesterday

good point, seems sensible enough

[xironman]

I am expecting another flare up this evening. Still a chance the Space Coast could get some of the stronger winds.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

HRRR does show a convective burst. It has done pretty well in the short range.

[chaser1]

Now that the LLC is exposed again, I wonder if we might see a wobble or 2 toward the coast like we did yesterday

One rule of thumb I've always used is that "the center always follows the convection", not the other way around. Basically, the orientation of the convection with respect to the center identifies the steering currents. If convection develops NW of the center, then it will move in that direction.

Convection? Wait a couple hours

[Jr0d]

The 20 mile(41009) and 120 mile buoy(41010) are good data points tonight:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41009

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41010


Up to 16' seas at the 20 mile buoy. Pressure is falling as expected at both locations.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Appears that models didn’t process Saharan dry air ingestion very well, but just more room for improvement.Here in Cape Canaveral, celebrating the successful Space X Dragon return with healthy astronauts . And waiting on a Dominos Pizza delivery Good luck, GA/Carolinas, hope Isa doesn’t rebuild. See y’all on the next one. Early days.

[xironman]

994 and a NE jog. Maybe pressure is very slowly going down. Looks like the center is rotating in a larger vortex.

[Jr0d]

Appears that models didn’t process Saharan dry air ingestion very well, but just more room for improvement.Here in Cape Canaveral, celebrating the successful Space X Dragon return with healthy astronauts . And waiting on a Dominos Pizza delivery Good luck, GA/Carolinas, hope Isa doesn’t rebuild. See y’all on the next one. Early days.

Watched the splashdown live. I think there will be more gulf side splashdowns given the lake like conditions that are common on that side vs. the Atlantic.

A bit upset that a bunch of civilian boaters decided to get up close to the capsule though...hopefully next time there is Coast Guard presence to shoo them away.

Obviously a Cape Caneveral splashdown was not going to happen today.

[jdjaguar]

Appears that models didn’t process Saharan dry air ingestion very well, but just more room for improvement.Here in Cape Canaveral, celebrating the successful Space X Dragon return with healthy astronauts . And waiting on a Dominos Pizza delivery Good luck, GA/Carolinas, hope Isa doesn’t rebuild. See y’all on the next one. Early days.

Watched the splashdown live. I think there will be more gulf side splashdowns given the lake like conditions that are common on that side vs. the Atlantic.

A bit upset that a bunch of civilian boaters decided to get up close to the capsule though...hopefully next time there is Coast Guard presence to shoo them away.

Obviously a Cape Caneveral splashdown was not going to happen today.

Why does that upset you?

[ColdMiser123]

Hurricane watches out for portions of the Carolina coast.

[aspen]

5pm track gives Isaias 32 hours over water before landfall at ~2am Tuesday. Since it’s already at 60 kt, that’s enough time for it to return to hurricane status, but I highly doubt it’ll break 65 kt.

[northjaxpro]

5pm track gives Isaias 32 hours over water before landfall at ~2am Tuesday. Since it’s already at 60 kt, that’s enough time for it to return to hurricane status, but I highly doubt it’ll break 65 kt.

Yes, he probably will.be a Cat 1 at the minimum on approach to the South Carolina coast tomorrow.

[CronkPSU]

convection on the IR loop sliding west again...has done it a few times over the past 24 hours to only make it so far and then blow back to the north and east

[Jr0d]

Why does that upset you?

Had there been an emergency, they would have been in the way of rescue operations. Also the capsule uses toxic hypergolic fuel for its thrusters, a leak could have been deadly to the sight seeers. There actually was some venting of toxic fumes that delayed opening the hatch when the capsule was on board the recovery vessel.

It was a stupid and reckless thing for them to do.

[ozonepete]

It looks like the LLC and MLC/convection center are starting to align much better.
This was expected as the shear is dropping off now and the mid-level dry air has almost completely moistened up now. Both of the latter were forecasted by the NHC and most of the models to happen right about this time. Since the center has remained offshore and will be further offshore and over the Gulf Stream until the SC/NC border, it sure does look like it could make hurricane again, especially since it's already showing signs of stacking vertically again.

[AnnularCane]

Funny how he starts strengthening again whenever the talk turns to how disorganized he's becoming. He's a little tiger!

[Steejo91]

It looks like the LLC and MLC/convection center are starting to align much better.
This was expected as the shear is dropping off now and the mid-level dry air has almost completely moistened up now. Both of the latter were forecasted by the NHC and most of the models. Since the center has remained offshore and will be further offshore and over the Gulf Stream until the SC/NC border, it sure does look like it could make hurricane again, especially since it's already showing signs of stacking vertically again.

Agreed! With this assessment that Water Vapor does not show anymore intrusions of dry air inside or even around the core. The problem today with Isaias has been the MLC and LLC not vertically stacked. There is definitely a window of opportunity for it to slightly strengthen before making landfall tomorrow night.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The NHC has ardjusted the longrange track back a bit east, probably due to the recent eastward bend in the computer model runs, interesting.

[Steve]

Appears that models didn’t process Saharan dry air ingestion very well, but just more room for improvement.Here in Cape Canaveral, celebrating the successful Space X Dragon return with healthy astronauts . And waiting on a Dominos Pizza delivery Good luck, GA/Carolinas, hope Isa doesn’t rebuild. See y’all on the next one. Early days.

People still eat that? :yuck:

Pretty close.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

[AnnularCane]

Appears that models didn’t process Saharan dry air ingestion very well, but just more room for improvement.Here in Cape Canaveral, celebrating the successful Space X Dragon return with healthy astronauts . And waiting on a Dominos Pizza delivery Good luck, GA/Carolinas, hope Isa doesn’t rebuild. See y’all on the next one. Early days.

People still eat that? :yuck:

Pretty close.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

Domino's pizza? Yes, and it was good, so there.

Dry air, not so much.