ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF is running now. According to it we should have a legit eye within the next 6 hours. Things really take off from there. I’ll post the run in models thread

[cfisher]

HWRF is running now. According to it we should have a legit eye within the next 6 hours. Things really take off from there. I’ll post the run in models thread

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082600/hwrf_satIR_13L_2.png

You mean in about an hour right?

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF is running now. According to it we should have a legit eye within the next 6 hours. Things really take off from there. I’ll post the run in models thread

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082600/hwrf_satIR_13L_2.png

You mean in about an hour right?

It’s running now. It’s showing a legit eye formed by 06z. Decent news is it is weakening very slightly as it gets closer to shore. Minimal but better than getting stronger

[cheezyWXguy]

HWRF is running now. According to it we should have a legit eye within the next 6 hours. Things really take off from there. I’ll post the run in models thread

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082600/hwrf_satIR_13L_2.png

You mean in about an hour right?

It’s running now. It’s showing a legit eye formed by 06z. Decent news is it is weakening very slightly as it gets closer to shore. Minimal but better than getting stronger

06z is about 1am, if I remember correctly.

[cfisher]

Looks like there's still some northerly shear. It could nudge the track further south and west

[SoupBone]

Does anyone have a link to a wind profile, preferably with a Google maps overlay?

[us89]

You mean in about an hour right?

It’s running now. It’s showing a legit eye formed by 06z. Decent news is it is weakening very slightly as it gets closer to shore. Minimal but better than getting stronger

06z is about 1am, if I remember correctly.

06Z is 2 AM EDT

[Beef Stew]

HWRF is running now. According to it we should have a legit eye within the next 6 hours. Things really take off from there. I’ll post the run in models thread

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082600/hwrf_satIR_13L_2.png

Also shows a drop of >10 mb between 06z and 09z. That would be quite something.

[eastcoastFL]

You mean in about an hour right?

It’s running now. It’s showing a legit eye formed by 06z. Decent news is it is weakening very slightly as it gets closer to shore. Minimal but better than getting stronger

06z is about 1am, if I remember correctly.

You are correct. It was initialized at 00z so 7pm. So yah right now actually is 06z.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF is running now. According to it we should have a legit eye within the next 6 hours. Things really take off from there. I’ll post the run in models thread

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082600/hwrf_satIR_13L_2.png

Also shows a drop of 13 mb between 06z and 09z. That would be quite something.

Need Moar Recon! The shear the nhc mentioned near shore seems to keep it in check upon approach. But it still ends around 115kts

[Beef Stew]

HWRF is running now. According to it we should have a legit eye within the next 6 hours. Things really take off from there. I’ll post the run in models thread

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082600/hwrf_satIR_13L_2.png

Also shows a drop of 13 mb between 06z and 09z. That would be quite something.

Need Moar Recon! The shear the nhc mentioned near shore seems to keep it in check upon approach. But it still ends around 115kts

Still a very formidable storm for sure. We'll know sooner than later if that run was onto anything or not. Next recon mission should be departing at 0530Z, so in about 15 minutes.

[Beef Stew]

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1298466442250248194

[eastcoastFL]

Also shows a drop of 13 mb between 06z and 09z. That would be quite something.

Need Moar Recon! The shear the nhc mentioned near shore seems to keep it in check upon approach. But it still ends around 115kts

Still a very formidable storm for sure. We'll know sooner than later if that run was onto anything or not. Next recon mission should be departing at 0530Z, so in about 15 minutes.

I’m gonna catch some sleep and check on it in a few hours. I hope everyone is safe or on their way to wherever they’re going to ride this out!

[eastcoastFL]

[Highteeld]

Major uptick in lightning

[ConvergenceZone]

I wonder if they will keep the wind speed at 90 mph on the next advisor coming up in 30ish minutes?

[BRweather]

It is tough to tell without recon, but the center sure looks close to 26N. Definitely still below that, but if that was the case then all the models are a little to the south.

[Highteeld]

Tremendous amount of lightning

[cfisher]

We could see a prolonged jog west with so much convection being sheared south of the center.

[Keldeo1997]

A VDM was somehow missed. Its 2 hours old btw.

Eyewall open to the East. Eye is 24nm wide