ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

Laura kinda looks like an angry Piranha when you rotate it 90* ~

[BRweather]

Just looking at the last sounding from the upper-level dropsonde mission, which was right before 00z, and noticing that the actual mid-level flow fomr about 500-300MB was more out the SSE whereas the GFS initialized with it being more out the SE. The last dropsonde was in the northeast Gulf where the ridge has been building in. This slight deviation may allow for the Laura to steer slightly more to the right of the track, which could be important for Texas impacts. I went and looked after seeing the 00z models a little to the south of where the suspected center is.

The embedded is image is from the recon mission and the link below is the GFS 00z sounding at same location.



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2020082600&fh=0&lat=28.9&lon=-84.8&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular

[ConvergenceZone]

appearance wise, It doesn't look any stronger than it did on the last advisory, so they may not increase the wind speed.

[cfisher]

This NOAA Buoy just took a pass of the east eye wall. There hasn't been an update since around 1 AM though.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42001

[NotoSans]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/748052828597125162/EE999DF3A7D28A4D0FFBF025FC487A29.png

A VDM was somehow missed. Its 2 hours old btw.

Eyewall open to the East. Eye is 24nm wide

That’s probably from AF Hurricane Hunters. Weird that they haven’t transmitted data via HDOB.

[tropicwatch]

I have not seen any indication that the current mission is underway. They might not be transmitting again. Bummer

[cfisher]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=CDT

I'm starting to wonder if the buoy got knocked out... it took a direct NE eyewall hit

[NotoSans]

Intermediate advisory at 90kt/978mb. There has been recon going on but the data aren’t transmitted via HDOB.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Unexpected

...LAURA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...
1:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 25.6°N 90.2°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

[Chemmers]

Now a 105mph

[AxaltaRacing24]

welp, winds are catching up.

[tropicwatch]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42001&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT

I'm starting to wonder if the buoy got knocked out... it took a direct NE eyewall hit

Still reporting, last report about 20 minutes ago.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=25.942N&lon1=89.657W&uom=E&dist=250

[ConvergenceZone]

Unexpected

...LAURA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...
1:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 25.6°N 90.2°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

Boy was I wrong! LOL I so didn't expect this......

[cfisher]

I mean 105 mph is on point for 978, it just had to tighten up the RMW

[ClarCari]

O M G

I was casually watching TWC and saw them pose the advisory right before going to commercial and I could not contain my gasp....

A FIFTEEN MPH INCREASE

[Horn1991]

I wonder if they will keep the wind speed at 90 mph on the next advisor coming up in 30ish minutes?

Looks like 105

[cfisher]

I think it's still on track for strong Cat 4/Cat 5 landfall

[galaxy401]

Didn't expect a Cat 2 upgrade! NHC must be getting data we aren't.

[TallahasseeMan]

About 9 hours ahead of the NHC 10pm advisory...

[jaxfladude]

Any good signs of a weaker Laura now to landfall?