ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[boca]

Where is Josephine heading that we have 96L out there now gcane was saying it’s a game changer? Anyone have an idea because it looks like Bermuda only is threatened.

[HurricaneEnzo]

I'm on board with the Josephine being on borrowed time. Just too much shear in the area nowhere it can run and hide. Even if it heads due West it is still gonna get blasted.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[curtadams]

CIMSS agrees convergence has become weak: No matter how Josephine goes NW, she's heading into 30+ kt shear, and that's normally death for a TC.

[Nuno]

Models have been persistent that dry air would be its demise. That scenario is becoming less likely by the hour.

According to early models, this should have already dissipated by now.

I'm not sure I buy this surviving very long, but we've seen a tendency of these weak storms to persist even in adverse conditions.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon is in the Air

[Aric Dunn]

The only thing it has to do is keep pulsing convective bursts .. and even going through the shear systems have survived in this manner... as long as it is divergent.

[Nimbus]

Looks elongated like it was trying to develop a second circulation center to the north?

[gfsperpendicular]

It's having a really tough time, I think it's 50/50 that recon finds a wave to be honest

[wxman57]

What weak circulation it had appears to be dissipating. Won't be much for recon to investigate. Models were correct that it would peak overnight then steadily weaken and dissipate.

[abajan]

Somehow the opposing views of Aric and wxman57 regarding Josephine's future remind me of this horse race. Just like one of the horses won, either Aric's or wxman57's analyses will eventually be proven right.

Here's the full race. Lol

[Aric Dunn]

Well it is closed.. and right where it is supposed to be.. where that new convective burst is. Looks like it got tugged to the NE a little as this burst of convection started.

[wxman57]

Well it is closed.. and right where it is supposed to be.. where that new convective burst is. Looks like it got tugged to the NE a little as this burst of convection started.

Looks like a sharp wave axis. SSW winds south of AND north of the center? Nothing there but an open wave, as the models had been predicting.

[GCANE]

Lowest pressure so far 1006 mb. Not bad, was expecting higher.

[AnnularCane]

Is recon in there yet? There's no thread.

[GCANE]

Diurnal convective behavior has always been a lull in the afternoon and then a pickup a couple hours before sunset.
We'll see if that pattern persists today.

[Aric Dunn]

west winds , SW winds, SE winds..

Closed circ..

they also are fly very low so they wont be doing a center pass or going in to heavy convection unless they gain some altitude.

[GCANE]

Is recon in there yet? There's no thread.

They're looking for the center now.

[Aric Dunn]

Lowest pressure so far 1006 mb. Not bad, was expecting higher.

1006 mb with 20 kt winds. so 1004 to 1005mb. likely.

[Kazmit]

Somehow the opposing views of Aric and wxman57 regarding Josephine's future remind me of this horse race. Just like one of the horses won, either Aric's or wxman57's analyses will eventually be proven right.

A lot of the time they're both right. Every system has it's strengths and weaknesses.

[GCANE]

CIMSS indicating the anticyclone is closing in on the CoC from the SW.
Shear is in the green zone at 15 knots.
Watch out if the anticyclone rotates clockwise and gets ahead of the CoC in its track to the NW.