ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Looks like ADT page is broken.

Yep, can’t get to it either. Current situation seems like all hell broke loose.

[PavelGaborik10]

Looks like they're going in right now, AF has an extrapolated surface pressure of 968.6 mbar on tropicalatlantic.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... _page=hdob

That is actually quite a bit higher than I was anticipating.

[Kingarabian]

Wowwow
AMSR2 pass:

[Jr0d]

We'll get the special advisory soon enough. Just odd they wouldn't go ahead and bump it to "major" level given the way the media covers these things. But it's not a big deal with recon on the way already.

I just know how slow people can be to react to stuff like this.

Judging by the recon pass so far, it looks like NHC nailed the intensity.

I know what you mean. Key West was extremely lucky Laura went south of Cuba. Had it gone north, she likely would have been a hurricane when ahe got to our longitude, yet people scoffed at the storm and the evacuation orders for liveaboard boats and mobile homes because it was only a minimal tropical storm at the time. We got lucky, the majority of the Keys would not have been prepared for a significant storm.

The folks along the TX/LA border area are not going to get that luck unfortunately. Hopefully those in the danger zone are taking appropriate precautions and have a plan if things get really bad.

[GCANE]

Kermit is on the way in too now

[artist]

Highest so far 104 knots

[Jr0d]

Looks like they're going in right now, AF has an extrapolated surface pressure of 968.6 mbar on tropicalatlantic.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... _page=hdob

Me too, still.a significant drop though.

Also that was with calm winds, we almost never see the o instead of the wind barb, so they went right through the center....very impressive!

[PavelGaborik10]

Extremely impressive looking storm. Winds appear to be lagging behind still, still a solid amount of time but if shear is going to impact her 12 hours or so before landfall I think the NHC has things about right. I'm shocked the winds are still lagging so far behind the structure.

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/homosapieninhk/status/1298563218852294656

[supercane4867]

Looks like they're going in right now, AF has an extrapolated surface pressure of 968.6 mbar on tropicalatlantic.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... _page=hdob

That is actually quite a bit higher than I was anticipating.

That's a 1.6mb/hr rate of intensification since the last center fix at 11PM EST yesterday. Landfall pressure will be at least sub-940mb if this holds.

[KWT]

Looks like they're going in right now, AF has an extrapolated surface pressure of 968.6 mbar on tropicalatlantic.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... _page=hdob

That is actually quite a bit higher than I was anticipating.

I didn't think it was going to be super low, once the eye really clears out (which is happening now) then we will see that pressure probably lurch down 10-20mbs in 3-6hrs.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1298562111136845824






What?

[cfisher]

Winds will catch up as soon as the eye closes

[Nasdaq]

Buoy at Shell Oil Platform 34.8 ft waves?

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42395

[PavelGaborik10]

Looks like they're going in right now, AF has an extrapolated surface pressure of 968.6 mbar on tropicalatlantic.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... _page=hdob

That is actually quite a bit higher than I was anticipating.

That's a 1.6mb/hr rate of intensification since the last center fix at 11PM EST yesterday. Landfall pressure will be at least sub-940mb if this holds.

Shear is expected to increase and impact Laura later tonight according to the NHC. These conditions are the best she's going to get.

[hurricaneCW]

Enough data to bump this up to 100kts next intermediate advisory.

[supercane4867]

NWS has updated surge forecast to 10-15ft for SW LA coast.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1298551562365579265

[supercane4867]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1298562111136845824?s=19

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/745830682177306664/748122276158767186/unknown.png

What?

The inner eyewall isn't even complete yet...Primary eyewall needs to begin contract first before it does an ERC.

[Jr0d]

Wave heights over 37' have been reported with winds of 60kt, gusting to about 80kt with a pressure of 980.7 mb at the buoy about 20 miles north of the center. That was an hour ago.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42395

Edit to add pressure

[KWT]

Worth noting that from 968mbs at the current rate of 2mbs an hour your going to be looking towards the 920s as a peak before landfall.

Just give context of how rapid 2mb/hr actually is