ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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PavelGaborik10
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#521 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:58 pm

plasticup wrote:
Do_For_Love wrote:
plasticup wrote:
Models have been moving east in the last 24 hours.


Not from what I've seen in the models thread - it seems like the GFS has been trending towards to Euro which had a western solution near the US canada border. I'm not an expert on these things by any means, but that seems like reason for increased concern IMO


Oh, who cares about the 7 day range. GIGO at that range. I am talking about the 4 days Bermuda impacts, which are looking less and less every run as the models trend east.


Teddy is only 5 days away from a potential US/Canada impact, sir.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#522 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:00 pm

Eye needs to warm quite a bit from here for it to attain T6.5
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#523 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:10 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Eye needs to warm quite a bit from here for it to attain T6.5

Visible loops suggest the eye is clearing out some more as that new burst of convection rapidly rotates around the center. The eyewall rotation seems to have significantly picked up in the last hour or so.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#524 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:13 pm

Image

Cloud tops getting colder on the eastern side and the eye is warming up.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#525 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:14 pm

947.2 mbar extrapolated. A surprisingly high drop between passes.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#526 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:14 pm

RL3AO wrote:https://i.imgur.com/ycxmvFa.jpg

Cloud tops getting colder on the eastern side and the eye is warming up.

Beat me to it. Looks the most symmetrical it has so far on both IR and vis
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#527 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:15 pm

aspen wrote:947.2 mbar extrapolated. A surprisingly high drop between passes.


It'll probably be in the low 940s two or three hours. Satellite images improve every five minutes.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#528 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:17 pm

RL3AO wrote:
aspen wrote:947.2 mbar extrapolated. A surprisingly high drop between passes.


It'll probably be in the low 940s two or three hours. Satellite images improve every five minutes.

I think there’s a very decent chance it’ll be a Cat 4 for the 5pm advisory, even if the 18z best track goes with 110 kt.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#529 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:23 pm

Really starting to look like Igor. Similar location almost exactly 10 years apart

2020
Image

2010
Image
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#530 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:26 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Really starting to look like Igor. Similar location almost exactly 10 years apart

2020
https://i.imgur.com/ez6mzif.jpg

2010
https://i.imgur.com/IyIhsFi.jpg


Acquiring that classic buzz saw shape.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#531 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:30 pm

Once Teddy clears out his eye, for me that will be confirmation he is a solid Cat 4.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#532 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:31 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Really starting to look like Igor. Similar location almost exactly 10 years apart...


Don't mention Igor. We were lucky here in the Maritimes and Maine that Igor missed us but he did a number on Newfoundland Island to the East. There was cataphoric flooding in the mountainous interior (mainly) of NFL due to his size and enhancement caused by interaction with a trough to his West. I believe it was the worst hurricane to hit there in roughly seventy years. :eek:
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#533 Postby msbee » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:39 pm

RL3AO wrote:https://i.imgur.com/ycxmvFa.jpg

Cloud tops getting colder on the eastern side and the eye is warming up.


monster looking storm. So glad it is avoiding us in the Northern islands, but sure hope it avoids Bermuda too.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#534 Postby hurricaneCW » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:43 pm

It's either gonna hit Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. It would be much weaker if it heads to Newfoundland.

Close shave for Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#535 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:43 pm

Raw ADT numbers increasing again to 6.4 after it started to clear the cirrus from the eye.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#536 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:46 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#537 Postby bob rulz » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:46 pm

bob rulz wrote:So the story of 2020 is that everything develops but nothing intensifies unless it's on a coastline


It looks like Teddy heard me LOL
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#538 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:47 pm

Seems like an upper Cat 3 based on Recon findings but it is continuing to strengthen. Will probably be a Cat 4 shortly.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#539 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:49 pm


946.9 with a 30-something knot wind? That probably justifies 947mb when calibrated
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#540 Postby NotoSans » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:56 pm

Instantaneous DT now reaches 6.0 based on WMG eye embedded in LG and surrounded by B, which is consistent with an upper category-3 found by recon.
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