ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chemmers]

Think it is definitely going more east now think land fall somewhere near Jacksonville as a cat 1

[Hurricane Mike]

Looks very much like a building eyewall

[AJF060288]

Jacksonville, NC here, getting nervous with some of the storms rotating off of the ocean with helicity increasing.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Little easier to visualize this way. Overall NNE. It is going to wobble all around because it is a big ole mess.

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[ScottNAtlanta]

One thing of note, the air is much less dry now than it was yesterday. Also the last recon center fix had 34kt winds so that 997 pressure is more likely 993

[TheDreamTraveler]

Euro showing a decent amount of rain inland on the western side up the coast. This is also with it gaining speed. Couldn't imagine how high these totals would be if it was slowly moving.

[Vdogg]

Euro showing a decent amount of rain inland on the western side up the coast

https://i.imgur.com/UvDcjb5.png

I think that heavy rain may need to shift East with the track. Euro has been constantly left biased with this storm for some reason.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Euro showing a decent amount of rain inland on the western side up the coast

https://i.imgur.com/UvDcjb5.png

I think that heavy rain may need to shift East with the track. Euro has been constantly left biased with this storm for some reason.

There's a couple other models showing similar rainfall amounts. That's due to the western side becoming enhanced by the front.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Euro showing a decent amount of rain inland on the western side up the coast

https://i.imgur.com/UvDcjb5.png

I think that heavy rain may need to shift East with the track. Euro has been constantly left biased with this storm for some reason.

There's a couple other models showing similar rainfall amounts around these areas, some slightly farther east and some farther west.

[SconnieCane]

Euro showing a decent amount of rain inland on the western side up the coast

https://i.imgur.com/UvDcjb5.png

I think that heavy rain may need to shift East with the track. Euro has been constantly left biased with this storm for some reason.

Euro has a left bias same as the GFS has a right (poleward) bias. Euro wanted to send Irma much deeper into Cuba than actually transpired, while GFS wanted to do the right turn much earlier with a Matthew-style coast scraper or east-coast landfall (not unlike the conundrum with Isaias a day or two ago).

[Vdogg]

Sure do wish we had recon going in. We might have a hurricane.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Sure do wish we had recon going in. We might have a hurricane.

Sure is looking more like it. Moisture envelope is much better today and closing off the dry air now.

[Vdogg]

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1290357148418023424



This is what's concerning me right now. It's so east of track, I'm wondering if hurricane conditions might spread into the Hampton Roads area. Especially since they call for it to be a hurricane up until about the state line. Wondering if we get any updated warnings at 5 p.m.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Right on track

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[HurricaneEnzo]

Don't know why people are basing movement off of Satellite when we have radar......

[emeraldislenc]

Just started raining at Emerald Isle. First rain we have had.

[Kazmit]

More East would mean more time over water, and more time to strengthen.

[HurricaneEnzo]

It's not east of any cone. If anything it is right on the NHC path. Pretty easy to see on radar 2pm update kept its motion N. Winds still 70mph. Pressure down to 993mb.

[aspen]

It might be on track to becoming a hurricane again. Maybe once recon goes back in within the next few hours, they’ll find a system that’s a few mbar stronger.

[jlauderdal]

82 Dew Point at my house in the wake of the system, will see if we can pop storms for the third time today, sun is shining