ATL: LAURA - Models

[caneseddy]

GFS does nothing with this. Either it's going to be a coup or it's going to be late to the party..again.

[TheStormExpert]

Levi Cowan said don’t bother looking at the models until something consolidates.

[Blown Away]

00z GFS 66 hrs... Circulation more defined than 18z

[eastcoastFL]

Ready to get shredded through the islands for the hundredth time.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200819/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-14.png

It’s a hair south of the 18z

[WeatherEmperor]

On a colision course with Hispanola again??




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[CFLHurricane]

that is a scary run from the icon....

Would peak season 2020 start any other way?

[Hammy]

GFS with absolutely nothing. Typical.

Down to 1006mb.

You must've edited while I was hitting reply

GFS does have a tropical storm by the weekend, for some reason the surface pressure doesn't show the lowest pressure mark too close to land (I've seen major hurricanes even where the L/pressure reading just vanish once land is within a certain number of pixels)

[Blown Away]

GFS keeps 98L shallow and goes more W into GA again... It’s clear now if 98L deepens before GA it will likely gain latitude to skim or miss GA...

[TheStormExpert]

Ready to get shredded through the islands for the hundredth time.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200819/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-14.png

Usually the GFS is right biased, so I wonder if a track south of the Greater Antilles is possible?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Ready to get shredded through the islands for the hundredth time.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200819/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-14.png

Usually the GFS is right biased, so I wonder if a track south of the Greater Antilles is possible?

anything is possible right now. complex situation. ridging is looking solid with the time frame slowly coming in though. that's my main takeaway for now.

[Shell Mound]

That's a monster HP on the ICON. No turn out to sea on this run. Double landfall for Florida. Middle Keys, then the Big Bend area/central Panhandle as a major

It would be rather unlikely for a strong hurricane to make landfall in the Keys so soon after Irma (2017). If 98L heads to South FL, then Miami is more likely.

Is the ICON really about to put 2 canes in the gulf?!

Looks like a yes.

https://i.imgur.com/IhxVstf.png

This scenario very nearly occurred in 1933 with Storms Eight and Eleven, both of which were major hurricanes on 3 September.

[toad strangler]

That's a monster HP on the ICON. No turn out to sea on this run. Double landfall for Florida. Middle Keys, then the Big Bend area/central Panhandle as a major

It would be rather unlikely for a strong hurricane to make landfall in the Keys so soon after Irma (2017). If 98L heads to South FL, then Miami is more likely.

Wow, please explain that one. These storms don't follow a script. Frances and Jeanne landfalled within TWO miles of each other and just TWO weeks apart in 2004. NOTHING since then.

[TheStormExpert]

That's a monster HP on the ICON. No turn out to sea on this run. Double landfall for Florida. Middle Keys, then the Big Bend area/central Panhandle as a major

It would be rather unlikely for a strong hurricane to make landfall in the Keys so soon after Irma (2017). If 98L heads to South FL, then Miami is more likely.

This makes literally no sense! So how do you explain Frances and Jeanne both making landfall in the same exact location in East-Central Florida just three weeks apart?

[eastcoastFL]

That's a monster HP on the ICON. No turn out to sea on this run. Double landfall for Florida. Middle Keys, then the Big Bend area/central Panhandle as a major

It would be rather unlikely for a strong hurricane to make landfall in the Keys so soon after Irma (2017). If 98L heads to South FL, then Miami is more likely.

Is that just based off of the Odds? I don’t think it’s too crazy for the keys to get hit every 3 years. We had Frances and Jeanne just 3 weeks apart right here, same spot

[Shell Mound]

That's a monster HP on the ICON. No turn out to sea on this run. Double landfall for Florida. Middle Keys, then the Big Bend area/central Panhandle as a major

It would be rather unlikely for a strong hurricane to make landfall in the Keys so soon after Irma (2017). If 98L heads to South FL, then Miami is more likely.

Wow, please explain that one. These storms don't follow a script. Frances and Jeanne landfalled within TWO miles of each other and just TWO weeks apart in 2004. NOTHING since then.

Climatologically, hurricane landfalls are rare, and two (major?) hurricanes hitting the same area (Keys) within three years would be even rarer. But I could be wrong.

[Blown Away]

00z GFS 126 hrs... Coming off Cuba, circulation better defined than 18z... Should begin moving more NW

[eastcoastFL]

Gfs 132hrs blob heading towards Fl

[Steve]

Levi Cowan said don’t bother looking at the models until something consolidates.

I didn't get to watch it, but his video yesterday popped up on my youtube feed and had like 21,000 views. That's pretty awesome for him.

[TheStormExpert]

It would be rather unlikely for a strong hurricane to make landfall in the Keys so soon after Irma (2017). If 98L heads to South FL, then Miami is more likely.

Wow, please explain that one. These storms don't follow a script. Frances and Jeanne landfalled within TWO miles of each other and just TWO weeks apart in 2004. NOTHING since then.

Climatologically, hurricane landfalls are rare, and two (major?) hurricanes hitting the same area (Keys) within three years would be even rarer. But I could be wrong.

Rare, yes. But not impossible. Mother Nature does what she wants!

[AutoPenalti]

It would be rather unlikely for a strong hurricane to make landfall in the Keys so soon after Irma (2017). If 98L heads to South FL, then Miami is more likely.

Wow, please explain that one. These storms don't follow a script. Frances and Jeanne landfalled within TWO miles of each other and just TWO weeks apart in 2004. NOTHING since then.

Climatologically, hurricane landfalls are rare, and two (major?) hurricanes hitting the same area (Keys) within three years would be even rarer. But I could be wrong.

It would be unlikely but not impossible. 2004 would like to have a word in that case.