ATL: SALLY - Models

[kevin]

18z ICON deepens to 976 mbar. But it also has at 995 mbar for 21z today instead of the current 987 mbar by NHC. So if we shift it with that difference we get 968 mbar, which I know isn't the most accurate thing to do, but it at least gives a slightly more realistic value.

[Stormcenter]

ICON stalls off the mouth of MS for some time

18z ICON deepens to 976 mbar. But it also has at 995 mbar for 21z today instead of the current 987 mbar by NHC. So if we shift it with that difference we get 968 mbar, which I know isn't the most accurate thing to do, but it at least gives a slightly more realistic value.

https://i.imgur.com/usoHLky.png

[PTPatrick]

ICON stalls off the mouth of MS for some time

18z ICON deepens to 976 mbar. But it also has at 995 mbar for 21z today instead of the current 987 mbar by NHC. So if we shift it with that difference we get 968 mbar, which I know isn't the most accurate thing to do, but it at least gives a slightly more realistic value.

https://i.imgur.com/usoHLky.png

Eventual landfall isnt actually much different...maybe a hair west over dauphin compared to 12...will be interesting to see if the march Of the models Eastward has finally stopped with these 18 z

[bella_may]

I’m just a hair west of where the NHC has landfall. I’m guessing I’ll still get some high winds even if it does go east

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like Sally is the storm the Euro ensembles gained redemption. Started showing more intense members threatening AL into FL. Complete opposite of how it went down with Laura.

[PTPatrick]

18z GFS actually came back west a tad too...so perhaps we do have a trend that the eastward progression has ceased. GFS inland over stone county ms at wed morning.

[Stormcenter]

The slow movement/stall is concerning

quote="PTPatrick"]18z actually came back west a tad...so perhaps we do have a trend that the eastward progression has ceased. GFS inland over stone county ms at wed morning.[/quote]

[HurricaneAndre2008]

This is for the area in the Western Gulf of Mexico.

[PTPatrick]

Hmon is west, landfall Pascagoula at 36...that’s GFS, icon and hmon now that nudged west. Wondering if the higher strength today and jog north with reformation actually caused the models to sense it might not get hung up and dragged south to the mouth after all.

[Blow_Hard]

Hmon is west, landfall Pascagoula at 36...that’s GFS, icon and hmon now that nudged west. Wondering if the higher strength today and jog north with reformation actually caused the models to sense it might not get hung up and dragged south to the mouth after all.

And these 18z models should have the center relocation data as well as the flight data. Looks like the East shifts have ended for the time being.

[Frank P]

Hmon is west, landfall Pascagoula at 36...that’s GFS, icon and hmon now that nudged west. Wondering if the higher strength today and jog north with reformation actually caused the models to sense it might not get hung up and dragged south to the mouth after all.

That’s a pretty big shift west, from what I can tell the center goes inland in the area between Ocean Springs and Gautier.. Goula would take the full brunt of the east eye wall

[PTPatrick]

Hwrf hits Jackson county again as well, around East Pascagoula. Maxes out at cat3 just off the MS sound with slight weakening at landfall.

Looking like Pascagoula is squarely in the crosshairs. .

[Nimbus]

18Z GFS parks Sally near the Mississippi delta pumping surge into Irish Bayou for a while which might be a problem at high tide.

[Steve]

18Z GFS parks Sally near the Mississippi delta pumping surge into Irish Bayou for a while which might be a problem at high tide.

GFS also takes us to Greek alphabet right near Florida with a low moving NE then a super massive continental ridge by GFS standards emerges from the US East Coast. It shows a trapped low, but you have to think that’s 100% ridge over troubled waters (though it is progressive). Near term, GFS moves Sally westerly for a while then turns up. What’s weird is that it builds in the west side much more than I expected. If it’s right, city of N.O. Probably gets some tropical storm conditions rather than a few gusts and weak side band or so.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1418&fh=31

[bella_may]

Hmon is west, landfall Pascagoula at 36...that’s GFS, icon and hmon now that nudged west. Wondering if the higher strength today and jog north with reformation actually caused the models to sense it might not get hung up and dragged south to the mouth after all.

That’s a pretty big shift west, from what I can tell the center goes inland in the area between Ocean Springs and Gautier.. Goula would take the full brunt of the east eye wall

I won’t be surprised if they nudge the track back west a little.

[Frank P]

Hmon is west, landfall Pascagoula at 36...that’s GFS, icon and hmon now that nudged west. Wondering if the higher strength today and jog north with reformation actually caused the models to sense it might not get hung up and dragged south to the mouth after all.

That’s a pretty big shift west, from what I can tell the center goes inland in the area between Ocean Springs and Gautier.. Goula would take the full brunt of the east eye wall

I won’t be surprised if they nudge the track back west a little.

anything possible at this time... the 18z Euro will also play a big part on the next updated forecast path ... and they have other models not available to the public (FL State model) that would be influencing their forecast projections.. instead of eye wobble watching, its model wobble watching... I prefer the eye wobble watching variety

[DestinHurricane]

Hmon is west, landfall Pascagoula at 36...that’s GFS, icon and hmon now that nudged west. Wondering if the higher strength today and jog north with reformation actually caused the models to sense it might not get hung up and dragged south to the mouth after all.

That’s a pretty big shift west, from what I can tell the center goes inland in the area between Ocean Springs and Gautier.. Goula would take the full brunt of the east eye wall

I won’t be surprised if they nudge the track back west a little.

No. Consensus is into mobile bay as wxman said.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z HWRF, which has absolutely nailed the short term evolution of Sally today, is calling for another round of intensification beginning at 00z and a 102 knot storm by 15z tomorrow.

[FixySLN]

That’s a pretty big shift west, from what I can tell the center goes inland in the area between Ocean Springs and Gautier.. Goula would take the full brunt of the east eye wall

I won’t be surprised if they nudge the track back west a little.

No. Consensus is into mobile bay as wxman said.

Consensus has changed 3 times in 6 hours. Pascagoula would be where my current chips stand. I'm still of a mind that Gulfport is the final landing zone.

[bella_may]

That’s a pretty big shift west, from what I can tell the center goes inland in the area between Ocean Springs and Gautier.. Goula would take the full brunt of the east eye wall

I won’t be surprised if they nudge the track back west a little.

No. Consensus is into mobile bay as wxman said.

No it’s not. GFS, Icon and HWRF are all west of mobile. At least the center is