ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cjrciadt]

Given the most recent recon data, I wouldn't be surprised to see a special advisory soon with an upgrade to 115 kts. That being said, they may be waiting on a bit more data.

Might even be 120 at Noon or 12:30pm est 950mb

[northjaxpro]

Data from the NOAA pass through the NE eyewall supports 125-130. It may be a Cat 4 now. Another AF plane is on the way from South Carolina now.

That Recon data easily would support a Category 4 cyclone

[Highteeld]

Eye is much more defined. ERI phase may have commenced.

[Beef Stew]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1298647188092772352

[Fancy1001]

Eye is much more defined. ERI phase may have commenced.

https://i.imgur.com/kcbkFoF.png

What's an ERI?

[FLpanhandle91]

Eye is much more defined. ERI phase may have commenced.

https://i.imgur.com/kcbkFoF.png

What's an ERI?

Explosive Rapid Intensification

[catskillfire51]

Eye is much more defined. ERI phase may have commenced.

https://i.imgur.com/kcbkFoF.png

What's an ERI?

Totally guessing but Extreme rapid intensification or something along those lines.

[cheezyWXguy]

woah, here comes the stadium effect

[PTPatrick]

It seems to me the best cast scenario at this point for Lake Charles proper is a landfall toward the Center or East side of Cameron parish. The peak onshore effects of surge would then be focused on far less populated marsh areas of eastern Cameron and western Vermillion parishes, as opposed to Calcaseiu lake and up the channel. By the same token, worst case then would be a landfall between Holly Beach and Sabine Pass which is what NHC currently has. Any jogs east will matter for Lake Charles...this holds true for the wind as well, which looks to be a big concern in addition to the water. If Lake Charles catches that eastern eye wall...which it looks like it will at this point, it will be pretty ugly there.

[Highteeld]

Eye is much more defined. ERI phase may have commenced.

https://i.imgur.com/kcbkFoF.png

What's an ERI?

Totally guessing but Extreme rapid intensification or something along those lines.

This is correct. Defined by the JTWC as 55 knot increase in 24 hours.

[Fancy1001]

Eye is much more defined. ERI phase may have commenced.

https://i.imgur.com/kcbkFoF.png

What's an ERI?

Explosive Rapid Intensification

Thanks.

[Sanibel]

The "fist" features on this were epic all last night...

[eastcoastFL]

[Steve]

Good grief.

https://twitter.com/BrennanMatherne/status/1298594141249699840

For those who don't know, Golden Meadow is slightly NW of Grand Isle on LA Highway 1 . It's probably 150 or so miles east of the border.

[Blinhart]

Heading to Lake Charles, LA from Houston.

This is the 15th hurricane chase and is going to be yet another big one.

You all are outstanding pro/amateur mets. Lots of respect for you.

Chuck

there are some hospitals that have parking garages there, do not, I repeat DO NOT park in the pink garage just off of I-10. Just be safe, as you know first responders won't be out there during the worse of the system.

[AtascocitaWX]

https://i.imgur.com/xj1QHmw.png

If you want to try and track yourself, go to windy.com and look at the satellite view, mark a waypoint in the middle of the eye and just let it go. This point was put about an hour and 30 min ago. Helps to have a visual to reference.

Nice Website.

[Blinhart]

Poor Cameron and Holly Beach are going to get smacked and drowned

Yeah looks like Cameron Parish and Southern Vermillion Parish will be erased once again.

[catskillfire51]

https://i.imgur.com/xj1QHmw.png

If you want to try and track yourself, go to windy.com and look at the satellite view, mark a waypoint in the middle of the eye and just let it go. This point was put about an hour and 30 min ago. Helps to have a visual to reference.

Nice Website.

It's great for satellite views but if you try to look at characteristics like wind or other features it defaults to the ECMWF, on the bottom right you can change to different models but I mainly just use it for satellite views.

[Dave C]

Also just a thought, with marsh lands in SW Louisiana this may slow down weakening some.

[HurricaneEnzo]

As if things aren't bad enough looks like they may be getting a bit worse. Look at that eye popping out More strengthening highly likely.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis