ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Plane heading toward the eye.

[SconnieCane]

Not that it matters, but what ever happened to the remnants of Marco? I know the models had it kind of lingering around the LA/TX gulf coast after it got sheered apart - but did any of it survive? A low level swirl? Is Laura in any way interacting with those remnants?

Whatever is left of Marco, Laura is plowing through it like a hot knife through butter.

Seriously though, I wonder if that blowup of convection earlier on the NW side of Laura's circulation might be related? Like it absorbed Marco's remnant circulation at that point?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is that the effects of shear on the NW side of Laura? I pray it is. Any METs know?

[Beef Stew]

2020AUG26 162020 6.5 929.5 127.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.78 -68.24 EYE 19 IR 9.9 27.09 92.18 ARCHER GOES16 36.8

Eye is beginning to torch, no doubt this is a category 4

If I had to guess... I'd say we get an extrap intensity of 115-120 kts this pass. At least.

[supercane4867]

EYE closeup loop

[tomatkins]

Not that it matters, but what ever happened to the remnants of Marco? I know the models had it kind of lingering around the LA/TX gulf coast after it got sheered apart - but did any of it survive? A low level swirl? Is Laura in any way interacting with those remnants?

Whatever is left of Marco, Laura is plowing through it like a hot knife through butter.

Seriously though, I wonder if that blowup of convection earlier on the NW side of Laura's circulation might be related? Like it absorbed Marco's remnant circulation at that point?

Yeah - thats what got me thinking about it.

[wx98]

Center pass incoming...
Category 4 incoming...

[BYG Jacob]

2020AUG26 162020 6.5 929.5 127.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.78 -68.24 EYE 19 IR 9.9 27.09 92.18 ARCHER GOES16 36.8

Eye is beginning to torch, no doubt this is a category 4

If I had to guess... I'd say we get an extrap intensity of 115-120 kts this pass. At least.

I'll go with 120 knots, and 140 knots flight level

[Shell Mound]

https://i.imgur.com/7Iqd0iL.gif

The convection firing off to the NW along the TX coast is wild to watch. Can someone explain to me what the driving force of this is and what that might tell us about steering?

 https://twitter.com/coon_bucket/status/1298662055180894210



 https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1298668467256795144



 https://twitter.com/pcavlin/status/1298669403240890368



 https://twitter.com/wxusa/status/1298669115205455875



 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1298670208094216195

[tarheelprogrammer]

130 knots is my estimate

[psyclone]

https://i.imgur.com/7Iqd0iL.gif

The convection firing off to the NW along the TX coast is wild to watch. Can someone explain to me what the driving force of this is and what that might tell us about steering?

It might be enhanced by lift from oceanic air encountering drier continental air...much a like a conventional high plains dry line serves as a lifting mechanism. perhaps one of our blue taggers could chime in.

[Highteeld]

Based off the data I have seen, a delta of around 90* is a good threshold for a cat 5 in the Atlantic, so it needs to increase the delta by about 5-6 degrees for 140 knots winds at the surface based off historical satellite data

[aspen]

I’m guessing recon will find extrapolated pressures in the high 940s. It’s been nearly two hours since the last center pass, and Laura is deepening at 2-5 mbar/hr.

[Fancy1001]

EYE closeup loop

https://i.gyazo.com/fa0f45fd8bafa96d73fec15eb103ed37.gif

It is shrinking and tightening up.

[supercane4867]

NWS Lake Charles office location has been evacuated. All operations now handled by NWS Brownsville.

[NevadaFan18]

This incoming recon is probably one of the most anticipated flights into any storm in quite a long time

[Sanibel]

The eye might not be clearing because trochoidal intensification jerks are keeping it from clearing out clean...In other words it is intensifying too fast to clear out...

[wx98]

Not that it matters, but what ever happened to the remnants of Marco? I know the models had it kind of lingering around the LA/TX gulf coast after it got sheered apart - but did any of it survive? A low level swirl? Is Laura in any way interacting with those remnants?

I tracked the naked swirl on IR and radar down the coast and into Freeport TX late last night. I think it dissipated completely after making landfall.

[BYG Jacob]

The eye might not be clearing because trochoidal intensification jerks are keeping it from clearing out clean...In other words it is intensifying too fast to clear out...

Same thing happened with Michael.

[wx98]

Not that it matters, but what ever happened to the remnants of Marco? I know the models had it kind of lingering around the LA/TX gulf coast after it got sheered apart - but did any of it survive? A low level swirl? Is Laura in any way interacting with those remnants?

Whatever is left of Marco, Laura is plowing through it like a hot knife through butter.

Seriously though, I wonder if that blowup of convection earlier on the NW side of Laura's circulation might be related? Like it absorbed Marco's remnant circulation at that point?

The circulation was far SW of there by last night and dissipated overnight I believe.