ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[StruThiO]

Yes it did go look at the previous runs, go loook at last week if u can’t see it didn’t do well then I don’t know what ur looking at.

uh

[stormlover2013]

The euro had Hanna around corpus and the gfs didn’t even have a dang storm.


Go do ur research, go look at the ensembles.

[StruThiO]

The euro had Hanna around corpus and the gfs didn’t even have a dang storm.


Go do ur research, go look at the ensembles.

lmao ok model hugger here's your ****ing ensembles

[WeatherEmperor]

Here is how the HWRF run ends. Looks very weak and sheared




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[TheStormExpert]

The euro had Hanna around corpus and the gfs didn’t even have a dang storm.


Go do ur research, go look at the ensembles.

Lol, I think you need to do your research!

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1287811697353330689

[WeatherEmperor]

Here is the 12z Euro so far. Could it be trying to skim the north coast of Hispanola this time?




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[Evil Jeremy]

ECMWF with a very broad Low just South of Jamaica at 96hrs... Convective mass displaced to the NE in the Southern Bahamas.

[otowntiger]

Here is the 12z Euro so far. Could it be trying to skim the north coast of Hispanola this time?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200727/c879133c1911b262936a6705e48c5c09.jpg maybe, but it sure seems like there will be nothing to track by then Looking at that image. Seems like several of the models are indicating little if any development or at least weakening by the time it reaches that part of the basin. Development potential falling way down, at least for the moment apparently.


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[Blown Away]

12z EURO has 92L as a wave in the FL Straits in @120 hours. This track is slightly N of 00z and still has interactions with the big islands. I noticed the HP has thumb ridge @120 to push 92L towards SFL/GOM.

[Aric Dunn]

12z today GFS PARA latches onto the obvious well defined vort max

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 72712&fh=6

[stormlover2013]

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The euro had Hanna around corpus and the gfs didn’t even have a dang storm.


Go do ur research, go look at the ensembles.

lmao ok model hugger here's your ****ing ensembles


Not a model hugger it’s just anyone that follows weather knows euro is king
https://i.imgur.com/GNft4Um.png

https://i.imgur.com/B7oehkY.png

[MississippiWx]

12z today GFS PARA latches onto the obvious well defined vort max

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 72712&fh=6

Yeah, I was just about to mention this.

Still several models make this into a decent system.

[TheStormExpert]

Model Guidance should continue to shift south considering 92L hasn’t really gained much if any latitude. Not to mention it’s moving at a good clip, 15 to 20mph. Will likely cross over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba as the Euro has been showing it doing so for many runs now.

[TheStormExpert]

  Help support Storm2K!

The euro had Hanna around corpus and the gfs didn’t even have a dang storm.


Go do ur research, go look at the ensembles.

lmao ok model hugger here's your ****ing ensembles


Not a model hugger it’s just anyone that follows weather knows euro is king
https://i.imgur.com/GNft4Um.png

https://i.imgur.com/B7oehkY.png

To call a model “king” is kind of weird. Yes we used to jokingly call it King Euro but it has since made some mistakes or screwups like all models do. Yes it did sniff out the unfavorable environment ahead of 92L first but it did VERY poorly on even picking up the slightest bit of intensity when it came to Hanna just a few days out.

[CyclonicFury]

Very hostile environment after the next 48 hours. Still could become a TS during that time, but it is no wonder why global models have backed off significantly.

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922020 07/27/20 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 32 36 41 45 47 46 45 44 42 41 41 41 42
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 32 36 41 45 46 43 41 41 39 38 38 38 39
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 30 29 27 23 21 19 19 19 21 22
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 12 11 13 5 11 9 22 26 37 26 32 26 28 28 37 36
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 1 2 2 8 13 9 10 4 -1 -4 -2 -3 -2 -6
SHEAR DIR 17 2 347 332 317 239 239 242 245 237 233 224 215 216 223 235 239
SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.6 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3
POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 133 137 141 148 155 151 153 147 151 150 151 150 153 155 157
ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 133 137 141 148 155 151 153 143 141 137 134 131 133 135 135
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 11
700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 62 58 52 48 43 37 31 33 35 39 41 43 44 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 16 16 17 17 17 16 14 12 10 8 7 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR 115 108 102 107 107 95 76 60 55 24 -12 -43 -39 -50 -22 -38 14
200 MB DIV 77 113 115 72 49 25 33 40 20 -1 -13 -24 -2 -4 0 -16 -4
700-850 TADV -14 -21 -19 -21 -15 0 -2 -6 -11 -16 -19 -12 -5 3 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 1073 982 927 923 858 663 495 115 11 56 114 152 197 131 85 124 174
LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 46.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 19 19 19 18 18 18 19 15 12 10 8 7 8 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 31 22 14 22 42 34 37 67 52 45 34 41 54 41 38 39 40

[sma10]

12z today GFS PARA latches onto the obvious well defined vort max

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 72712&fh=6

GFS (Para) and Euro solutions couldnt be any more different

[TheStormExpert]

18z Track and Intensity Guidance. Definitely a downward trend in peak intensity.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well we know one thing, if it stays weak, it ain’t going out to sea. So it’s very possible the depression, or remnants will get its act together in the Carib or Gulf

[WeatherEmperor]

Just for laughs and giggles, the 12z Navgem has a hurricane making landfall in South Florida




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