ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

50 knots detected. Is it a max wind band or rain enhanced? You decide!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-0328A-ZETA_zoom.png

But those are flight level winds?

Yes, but it's useful for how strong the storm is.

[ElectricStorm]

NHC still says 40 mph, likely because of the main circulation is becoming broad.

The best track just updated to 45 kts so NHC will likely up the winds at the next advisory

[ScottNAtlanta]

This looks to me like there is some kind of shear suppressing this from the north. There is also a lack of good outflow on the north side

[Blown Away]

Not a very impressive system based on that pass.

Certainly no clear center at 18N/83.7W per the update, just very broad rotation...

[CrazyC83]

The last data suggests 50 kt may be a reasonable intensity estimate. It does seem the circulation may be farther southeast.

[Iceresistance]

Another circulation detected closer to the convection, at 17.7 N

[skyline385]

Lots of 50 kts SFMR

[ScottNAtlanta]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1320421389199937540

[ScottNAtlanta]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1320423415883436042

[aspen]

Zeta is stronger than I expected (45-50 kt is supported by both passes), but it still has work to do. At least now we know why there is shear; see Eric Webb’s Tweet a few posts up.

If Zeta is much further south when the weakness opens up and shear dies down, where will it go? Will it go NW as modeled, or will its position lead to more wandering?

[underthwx]

Zeta is stronger than I expected (45-50 kt is supported by both passes), but it still has work to do. At least now we know why there is shear; see Eric Webb’s Tweet a few posts up.

If Zeta is much further south when the weakness opens up and shear dies down, where will it go? Will it go NW as modeled, or will its position lead to more wandering?

That's a good question Aspen. Time will tell.

[Blown Away]

Zeta is stronger than I expected (45-50 kt is supported by both passes), but it still has work to do. At least now we know why there is shear; see Eric Webb’s Tweet a few posts up.

If Zeta is much further south when the weakness opens up and shear dies down, where will it go? Will it go NW as modeled, or will its position lead to more wandering?

That's a good question Aspen. Time will tell.

I think NW into the heart of the Yucatan. Climatology is talking to us, models going W against 150 years of data tells me Zeta may not be long lived if the W trends continue

[aspen]

The last two passes do seem to show the LLC trying to reform further SE. I can’t wait for Levi’s video tonight to address this extremely complicated and changing track forecast.

[blp]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1320455182979878913

[tiger_deF]

My thoughts are the center has been slowly migrating to the SE all day, Zeta has remained disorganized but the most important process in future intensification, the cyclone stacking, has been underway. Zeta might decouple again, and could easily fail to fully stack but if the center continues the shift then it should be cleared for takeoff by this evening.

[Aric Dunn]

Just got back..

looks like convection is trying to build up the east side.

[CourierPR]

Zeta is stronger than I expected (45-50 kt is supported by both passes), but it still has work to do. At least now we know why there is shear; see Eric Webb’s Tweet a few posts up.

If Zeta is much further south when the weakness opens up and shear dies down, where will it go? Will it go NW as modeled, or will its position lead to more wandering?

That's a good question Aspen. Time will tell.

I think NW into the heart of the Yucatan. Climatology is talking to us, models going W against 150 years of data tells me Zeta may not be long lived if the W trends continue

Climatology is not a force in itself. Storms can and do deviate from the climatological norm.

[skyline385]

Thats a lot of cold tops

[underthwx]

Thats a lot of cold tops

https://i.imgur.com/SMLRqVN.jpg

Pop a top on a cold one.....