ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurrilurker]

Pressure only 953? That's surprisingly high to me.

I noticed that as well, you think it'd be lower.
Florence (150 Mph) - 937 mb
Harvey (130 mph) - 937 mb
Joaquin (155 mph) - 931 mb
Gonzalo (145 mph) - 940 mb
The only storm I found in recent years around Laura's strength with such a relatively "high" pressure was Nicole in 2016.. wonder what the reasoning is.

Higher environmental pressure; remember it's the pressure gradient that drives the wind speed not just lower pressure. Matthew was the same way (Cat 5 @ 940-ish)

Thanks, that's a good explanation. Which means the absolute pressure really isn't that important. Wouldn't it be more useful if instead of the historical record featuring the lowest pressure and landfall pressure prominently, they instead focused on the pressure differential? That would seem to be a more accurate description of the storm's strength.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

SATELLITE





NOAA STAR:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL132020


RAMMB/CIRA:
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... r=al132020


CIMSS:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0
(Site experienced a power outage overnight and some things might not be available or might be out of date)


RAMMB/CIRA SLIDER (hard to operate sometimes):
GeoColor: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 5068.21875
IR: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 5068.21875
Visible: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 5068.21875


College of DuPage:
IR: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined
Visible: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined


Tropical Tidbits:
IR: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
Visible: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis


NASA MSFC:
IR: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... te=ir2.pal
Visible: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... olor=white
Closeup Visible: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... olor=black
From: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/



1 minute satellite imagery:



NOAA STAR:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/meso_index.php
On mesoscale page, click latest for Gulf of Mexico where the storm is.
Band 2 for visible. Band 13 for IR.


College of DuPage:
IR: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined
Visible: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined


NASA SPORT:
IR: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/s ... ct=10p35um



Other Satellite Imagery:



SSEC RealEarth is out of date at the moment, or unavailable, for the following after suffering a power outage last night:

SSEC RealEarth GOES East Full Disk (every 10 minute):
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... ter=27,-90

SSEC RealEarh Global Imagery (like AVN, hourly):
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?center ... obalir-avn






RADAR






Lake Charles, Louisiana radar and some that have a composite of radar sites.


NWS:
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 11&loop=no


Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS) from NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory:
https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_ ... s_step=600


A few different views from Lake Charles radar and others:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/radar.html


Plymouth State Weather Center:
https://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/rad ... &ident=LCH


Weather Underground. In drop down menu, select 248nm range:
https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/l ... harles/lch


Wundermap:
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap? ... rm-cells=0


Experimental NWS Radar Display:
https://preview-radar.weather.gov/?sett ... xzZX0%3D#/
(subject to being unavailable)


Tropical Cyclone Radar Loops:
http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/
Long updating loops of Laura.


Radar Floater:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _and_Radar
Where you could view a 200 image loop of Laura at the moment:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... isplay=200


Another NWS interactive map:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?radar=true


RealEarth is just coming back online so might have issues:
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... ew=leaflet





OTHER LINKS





Current Tide Levels:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inund ... Laura.html


River levels:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps/


Buoys:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/


Local NWS Products:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls3+shtml/


Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map (Inundation):
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... n#contents

[GrayLancer18]

Looking at the visible it seems like the NW quadrant is being eroded away.

Dry air perhaps?

[Shell Mound]

High background pressures.

So that means that Laura can reach higher wind speeds with less effort in pressure drop?

The Euro thinks so

https://i.imgur.com/2T5uEVW.png
https://i.imgur.com/dkZ9K9f.png

May you please post the charts for 06Z, which is one hour later? Landfall looks to occur closer to that time on the run.

[catskillfire51]

This is how I have been watching for the turn, i put that waypoint at about 10:30am, granted it's not perfect. So far you can see she hasn't started her turn yet but she should soon. The first picture is now and the second picture is an hour ago. ****NOTE*** That red line is not a projection I am just using that as a reference.

[Cunxi Huang]

Dat V shape...

[cfisher]

The way Laura has been strengthening makes me think it's less likely it "overheats" before landfall.

[dantonlsu]

https://i.imgur.com/FuedghR.png

Definitely hugging the west side of the cone!

Yikes!

[Fancy1001]

I'm just thinking of charley and how they screwed up its turn.

That was 16 years ago. Track forecasting has improved. And they are the best of the best.

In addition Charley was a pint sized bullet. more like giant tornado. Laura is a massive steamroller

Good point. I went through Charley's eye when I was 9, and it was a major precursor for my love of hurricanes.

[Michele B]

This is absolutely astonishing. These coastal area will never look the same. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw power outages across Texas,Louisiana , Arkansas and into the mid Atlantic states from Laura. The damage will be spread way out over large swathes of the region.

I thought I heard this morning on TWC that power outages could occur as far away as Asheville.

I remember it because my sister lives there and always teases me about staying in FL in "hurricane territory."

[northjaxpro]

You would have to wonder with this nice a structure if it could hold on better inland.

Michael's inner core held up well inland. So, it is a possibility for sure.

[ColdMiser123]

I noticed that as well, you think it'd be lower.
Florence (150 Mph) - 937 mb
Harvey (130 mph) - 937 mb
Joaquin (155 mph) - 931 mb
Gonzalo (145 mph) - 940 mb
The only storm I found in recent years around Laura's strength with such a relatively "high" pressure was Nicole in 2016.. wonder what the reasoning is.

Higher environmental pressure; remember it's the pressure gradient that drives the wind speed not just lower pressure. Matthew was the same way (Cat 5 @ 940-ish)

Thanks, that's a good explanation. Which means the absolute pressure really isn't that important. Wouldn't it be more useful if instead of the historical record featuring the lowest pressure and landfall pressure prominently, they instead focused on the pressure differential? That would seem to be a more accurate description of the storm's strength.

That would definitely be useful, since winds are generated from this difference in pressure, and not just the low pressure itself. That's why it's not constantly windy in elevated regions in interior PA, even though surface pressures are constantly in the 970s due to that elevation.

[Argcane]

Dat V shape...

https://i.imgur.com/Gmnhciw.png

Hi. Sorry, what does it mean that "V-shape" in the eye? Subsidence?

[tomatkins]

Is that suppose to be sarcastic at the end?

Nope. They nail it most times.

I'm just thinking of charley and how they screwed up its turn.

That was 16 years ago.

[supercane4867]

What's up with AF observations. It seems to have stopped transmitting again.

[aspen]

Of course the recon flight is having transmission issues again.

[EquusStorm]

Felix and Matthew had fairly high pressure at category five. Amazing how each hurricane is its own animal in its own environment and varies a bit.

[FLpanhandle91]

Looking at the visible it seems like the NW quadrant is being eroded away.

Dry air perhaps?

If you peak at some of the 1-minute imagery, you can see that appeared to be a bit of dry air but it is now being exhausted out of the system. Solid eyewall on IR is beginning to take shape again.

[AnnularCane]

The way Laura has been strengthening makes me think it's less likely it "overheats" before landfall.

They "overheat?" What does that mean?

[cheezyWXguy]

Looking at the visible it seems like the NW quadrant is being eroded away.

Dry air perhaps?

If you peak at some of the 1-minute imagery, you can see that appeared to be a bit of dry air but it is now being exhausted out of the system. Solid eyewall on IR is beginning to take shape again.

In fact the eye has actually gotten clearer and more circular in the last couple frames on vis