ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[St0rmTh0r]

Here's the MDR storm so many said needed to happen. Really about to ramp up now!

[GeneratorPower]

My money is on a fizzle overnight. These pop ups will break your heart every time.

[Ivanhater]

My money is on a fizzle overnight. These pop ups will break your heart every time.

I think most think this will dissipate soon but it is definitely a TD at this time, imo.

Blowup over the center continues to deepen and expand. Whites starting to pop now

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[Ubuntwo]

My money is on a fizzle overnight. These pop ups will break your heart every time.

Short term weakening might be expected, but the Euro has this peaking 31 hours from now - there's still time.

[sma10]

So odd to see 99L just sauntering along at a leisurely pace. Often these July/early Aug waves scream their way across the MDR

[EquusStorm]

Would be nice to get this classified so those insistent on a pre-August MDR storm for climo validation can be satisfied Really tho it definitely seems to happen a little more often in active seasons so if 2020 is gonna approach the seasonal activity forecast, this is a sign it could trend that way

For what it's worth, yeah sure we've had six named storms, but only one of them being truly fully tropical in origin and nature (Cristobal) is rather close to average, getting another before August would certainly put it on up there with the more active ones. With the exceptions of 1999, 2004, etc, which we're still vastly ahead of.

[Steve H.]

Really nice blowup of convection right now near the CoC. If this continues we'll have a TD later this morning. Probably is one now.

[ColdMiser123]

This is very close to being a classified system if it isn't already one at this point.

While this may get named in the short-term, the mean flow in the Caribbean is still far too strong for a circulation to survive much beyond the Lesser Antilles. During which, 99L will likely open back up into a wave.

[Shell Mound]

Classification at this point likely depends on a) persistence of convective organisation and b) a conveniently timed ASCAT pass (particularly for TS classification). Borderline, compact, short-lived cases such as this often jump straight to TS rather than TD status, then degenerate into an open wave just as fast as they “spin up.” If convection persists through the early portion of the diurnal minimum, then this will likely be classified as TS Gonzalo. At this stage, if this ever gets classified later today or (less probably) early tomorrow, I think it is actually more likely to be deemed TS Gonzalo rather than a TD from the onset.

[MarioProtVI]

I think the reason NHC has this so low is probably because it is still connected to the ITCZ which is fueling it right now. As soon as it breaks off on its own however....given the current overall conditions you can kinda see why they’re keeping it so low. Then again it’s looking pretty good right now and I would be shocked if they didn’t raise this to at least 40/40 at 2 am.

[MarioProtVI]

2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become a little better
organized in association with a low pressure system located about
midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
couple of days while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over
the tropical Atlantic. By the weekend, however, less favorable
conditions should limit additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Shell Mound]

There almost seems to be a nascent eyewall-type feature over or just west of the low-level centre on the very latest IR frames as of 06:35Z. It resembles a small, upside-down comma shape, and the overall appearance is typical of a sheared, weak TS. Additionally, the circulation of the system is quite compact; the impression of a formative inner core may further confirm this. Microwave imagery could prove revealing. If 99L is not yet Gonzalo, it will likely be named later today. I’m already envisioning a peak of 45 to 50 knots during the next few days before degeneration near the Lesser Antilles.

[GCANE]

Current Best Track.
We got a Carib Cruiser

[GCANE]

Very tight 1C Warm Core.
Very impressive for where this is in the MDR and having to flush out SAL.
A classic late Aug / Sept protected pouch in July.

A number of factors are in play for the long term
1) African Easterly Jet has moved significantly south.
2) Rossby Waves have moved significantly north.

Given the fact GFS is forecasting a succession of waves coming of Africa in less than a week apart, only one word can describe the next couple months IMHO: ominous.

[GCANE]

Looks like a TD to me.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Looks like a TD to me.

https://i.imgur.com/E2mCDrA.gif

https://i.imgur.com/4dQPjvM.gif

there's no way you can say that is not in my opinion.

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like a TD to me.

https://i.imgur.com/E2mCDrA.gif

https://i.imgur.com/4dQPjvM.gif

there's no way you can say that is not in my opinion.

These windfield estimates aren't an appropriate way to determine a cyclone's structure. Gotta wait for the next ASCAT pass in a few hours.

[GCANE]

GFS kills the forecasted ULL that was supposed to form ahead of this tomorrow.
I thought they were improving the model.

Waiting to see Visible Satellite this morning if the Anticyclone is there.
The way the short-duration high-helicity towers are firing, its a good chance it's there.

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1285513025764630528

[Ivanhater]

Continued bursting over the LLC,

Gonzalo, is that you?

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