ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tiger_deF]

98L is continuing to fire off deep convection to the north, banding is developing in the vicinity as well. The system has also been taking a more WNW/NW heading over the past few hours

[SouthFLTropics]

98L is continuing to fire off deep convection to the north, banding is developing in the vicinity as well. The system has also been taking a more WNW/NW heading over the past few hours

It's getting close. I think it needs to pop off some good convection around the center and maintain it before we get a classification. Dmax should give it a good boost. I think they'll wait a bit but I've seen worse storms declared before.

[Nimbus]

Definitely a lot of storm relative motion and what will be the center has started to gain a little latitude.
18Z models should be interesting, you would expect a jump in latitude once the convection bursts over the center but that can take a while.

[eastcoastFL]

I don’t see much shear in the path on the gfs forecast at 60hrs

[eastcoastFL]

Definitely a lot of storm relative motion and what will be the center has started to gain a little latitude.
18Z models should be interesting, you would expect a jump in latitude once the convection bursts over the center but that can take a while.

18z GFS still running head on into the islands

[eastcoastFL]

98L is continuing to fire off deep convection to the north, banding is developing in the vicinity as well. The system has also been taking a more WNW/NW heading over the past few hours

It's getting close. I think it needs to pop off some good convection around the center and maintain it before we get a classification. Dmax should give it a good boost. I think they'll wait a bit but I've seen worse storms declared before.

I think it looks better than Isaias did during many points of his life

[SouthFLTropics]

Definitely a lot of storm relative motion and what will be the center has started to gain a little latitude.
18Z models should be interesting, you would expect a jump in latitude once the convection bursts over the center but that can take a while.

18z GFS still running head on into the islands

It's north of the big islands but it just doesn't want to fire. Has to be dry air and lack of instability. That's the only thing I can figure.

[Kazmit]

Definitely a lot of storm relative motion and what will be the center has started to gain a little latitude.
18Z models should be interesting, you would expect a jump in latitude once the convection bursts over the center but that can take a while.

18z GFS still running head on into the islands

GFS doesn't count.

[tiger_deF]

I don’t see much shear in the path on the gfs forecast at 60hrs

Yeah but the GFS obviously predicts that an insect to the west of the circulation dies suddenly in mid air, disrupting the circulation and dissolving the system

[eastcoastFL]

I don’t see much shear in the path on the gfs forecast at 60hrs

Yeah but the GFS obviously predicts that an insect to the west of the circulation dies suddenly in mid air, disrupting the circulation and dissolving the system

That may make more sense than its other predictions

[Blown Away]

Must be record time for an invest to be at 90/90%. I couldn't pull the trigger and classify if the Euro & GFS don't develop it. It looks to good on satellite, but the Global Models are what most depend on. I do think 97L is playing a role eroding the ridge once 98l gets near FL turning NW or NNW into EGOM.

[eastcoastFL]

Must be record time for an invest to be at 90/90%. I couldn't pull the trigger and classify if the Euro & GFS don't develop it. It looks to good on satellite, but the Global Models are what most depend on. I do think 97L is playing a role eroding the ridge once 98l gets near FL turning NW or NNW into EGOM.

I could classify it as a TD without the Euro and Gfs. How many times have they classified a TD showed it getting to TS over 5 days and staying at that strength and then gradually increasing intensity with each update?

[aspen]

This definitely looks closed, and convection is still slightly expanding.

[NDG]

[SconnieCane]

https://i.imgur.com/j1N7afg.jpg

DING DING DING DING! (A day early, but those images are good enough for me).

[TheStormExpert]

https://i.imgur.com/j1N7afg.jpg

I’ve seen worse looking TS’s or Hurricanes. Don’t have to go to far back either! *Cough* Isaias *Cough*

[TheStormExpert]

This is how nuts the models are... Some don’t even form a storm. Some have a TS, a few cat 1s and 2s and then there’s HMON.

Never mind the wide array of tracks


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2020081912/hmon_mslp_wind_98L_43.png

Funny considering the HWRF tends to be the more bullish of the two hurricane models.

[caneseddy]

https://i.imgur.com/j1N7afg.jpg

I’ve seen worse looking TS’s or Hurricanes. Don’t have to go to far back either! *Cough* Isaias *Cough*

Or Josephine

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/j1N7afg.jpg

Quite impressive!

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/j1N7afg.jpg

I’ve seen worse looking TS’s or Hurricanes. Don’t have to go to far back either! *Cough* Isaias *Cough*

Nothing can be worse than Half-Bare Barry. I’m pretty sure this system will look far better if it becomes a minor hurricane as well.