ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like that moat feature is not there anymore

[cfisher]

An ERC in the near-term wouldn't necessarily be a good thing...

[cheezyWXguy]

MPI might be difficult to achieve with such a large eye.

No doubt, MPI in this area is sub 900. But I think the increase in sst’s in this area would likely allow for it to continue building deep enough convection to insulate it from any shear that may arise at landfall.

What's MPI

Maximum Potential Intensity

[WeatherEmperor]

MPI might be difficult to achieve with such a large eye.

No doubt, MPI in this area is sub 900. But I think the increase in sst’s in this area would likely allow for it to continue building deep enough convection to insulate it from any shear that may arise at landfall.

What's MPI

Maximum Potential Intensity


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[wx98]

Recon fix confirmed a definite NNW turn now, which I alluded to several minutes ago. Cameron/Holly Beach in the crosshairs...

[FLpanhandle91]

Any beginnings of concentric banding has been quickly absorbed by the inner eye wall. Additionally, recon hasn't found even a hint of double wind maxima yet.

[Fancy1001]

No doubt, MPI in this area is sub 900. But I think the increase in sst’s in this area would likely allow for it to continue building deep enough convection to insulate it from any shear that may arise at landfall.

What's MPI

Maximum Potential Intensity

Ok

[Hurricane Mike]

The surge this thing has likely built up is going to be enormous.

[wkwally]

Recon fix confirmed a definite NNW turn now, which I alluded to several minutes ago. Cameron/Holly Beach in the crosshairs...

So are we ruling out a Texas center of landfall now?

[Extratropical94]

Center dropsonde 947/6kt

Looks like the insane intensification trend has slowed down some

[Highteeld]

Eye size on radar looks mostly unchanged, maybe a mile smaller

[aspen]

An ERC in the near-term wouldn't necessarily be a good thing...

It wouldn’t even have much time to have its full effect of weakening Laura yet expanding its wind field. There’s no more than 12 hours until landfall.

[ColdMiser123]

Dropsonde supports 946.4 mb.

[butch]

KPLC in Lake Charles has just abandoned their station, transferring their coverage to Baton Rouge. Good move.

[mrbagyo]

[Highteeld]

YEET

[Cunxi Huang]

Some decent 155 kt on 900 mb level.

[GCANE]

Eye Drop
947mb
27.6N 92.7W
RH = 56%

Relative Humidity up from 46% last drop.
Watching if the trend continues.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

No evidence of an EWRC at least from this perspective.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Dropsonde suggest Laura might be slightly stronger, up to 125 knots. In fact, winds were 150mph literally a few feet off the surface.

Additionally:

Code: Select all

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 80° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 130 knots (150 mph)