ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

Very impressive eye temperature

2020AUG26 205020 6.5 929.1 127.0 6.3 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 20.59 -67.62 EYE 30 IR 9.9 27.86 92.74 ARCHER GOES16 37.8

[chaser1]

This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate
coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days
after the storm.

Oh shoot. Katrina's inland surge penetration was 6 miles . That might be the most insane weather statistic of 2020 so far aside from Death Valley reaching 54.4C (109F at 3 am too) the other week.

And 40 miles might not be far enough, it could be closer to 50, the Calcasieu River goes that far inland.

Yeah, 40 miles of inland storm surge is really hard for me to wrap my head around. A question for you Texas folks within that region..... is this particularly low lying or river bed area where 40 mile storm surge is expected?

[tolakram]

[cheezyWXguy]

Mannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn, this sure does look like a category 5 hurricane to me. How much better looking can something like this possibly get?

I have a feeling we are about to find out.

[wkwally]

Does anyone have a fix/guess on the time of landfall yet?

[msbee]

https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/129 ... 95361?s=21

[cfisher]

"There will never be another Haiyan"

Gulf: hold my SSTs

[KWT]

Mannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn, this sure does look like a category 5 hurricane to me. How much better looking can something like this possibly get?

I have a feeling we are about to find out.

Yes the next 2 recon flights are probably going to be telling as to whether its going to make it to a cat-5 or remain as a very dangerous cat-4.

Either way, I think this is a disaster unfolding.

[chaser1]

Wow didn’t realize this storm was moving so fast. Can you imagine if this thing was moving slower over these warm waters?

Sometimes that works against the storm too, when it strengthens quickly and then weakens in the day or so leading to landfall. It's the storms that blow up right before landfall that scare me; see Michael for one example.

Remember those guys in the pickup truck in Mexico Beach? When the surge hit the truck started floating away live on the stream until it got to a house on stilts. They hopped out and broke in to the house and survived.

I dont think I ever heard or saw that vid. Do you have a link?

[869MB]

[KWT]

https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1298725895767695361?s=21

Great advice, this one is larger for a start and is probably going to throw its max winds a little further afield than Michael did. Plus, its really not going to be much different in intensity even if it doesn't quite make it to the 5 that Michael did.

[supercane4867]

"There will never be another Haiyan"

Gulf: hold my SSTs

Patricia in the EPAC would like to have a word with you.

[Cunxi Huang]

lol a W ring.

[Highteeld]

"There will never be another Haiyan"

Gulf: hold my SSTs

No

[northjaxpro]

Does anyone have a fix/guess on the time of landfall yet?

Sometime in the early wee hours of tomortow morning around 1:00 - 3:00 a.m. Central time for landfall would be my best estimate.

[Ed_2001]

"There will never be another Haiyan"

Gulf: hold my SSTs

Let’s not post these kind of unsubstantiated statements. Laura will not get that strong but it doesn’t take a Haiyan to do real damage. A high end Cat 4 is more than enough.

[northjaxpro]

lol a W ring.

https://i.imgur.com/07M5Szq.jpg

Almost fully filled the ring. I have no doubt that this will achieve Cat 5 statius before landfall.

[cfisher]

"There will never be another Haiyan"

Gulf: hold my SSTs

No

https://i.imgur.com/Fl3XefX.png

https://i.imgur.com/L2D2JpA.png

that's crazy

[wkwally]

Does anyone have a fix/guess on the time of landfall yet?

Sometime in the early wee hours of tomortow morning around 1:00 - 3:00 a.m. Central time for landfall would be my best estimate.

Hate night landfalling hurricanes increases the hazzard risk. if things are not bad enough with Laura

[PTPatrick]

given the relative lack of property gulf facing in Cameron Parish, the question of whether140 MPH winds or157 mph winds hit the marshes is going to be mostly academic. you could certainly see a little more damage in the path of the eyewall eventually inland. but even in cat 5 the highest winds hardly go beyond the the beach font. Trees and frictional effects even in swamps will help with that. I think whats as important is whats its doing near landfall....A strengthening cat 4 will mix more wind further down to the surface further inland. If it peaks at 5 soon and starts to weaken a tad, the net effects from wind could be similar or even less. bottom line, this is a ferocious storm and will be one for the records whether it hits as a 4 or a 5. Its not too often that you have a storm that gets to tell its story with extreme wind damage and WAter damage. This will certainly bring both. Wish everyone in the path luck and patience in the coming weeks.