ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dukeblue219]

Latest Vortex Message:

A. 18/00:34:32Z
B. 20.44 deg N 054.55 deg W
C. NA
D. 948 mb
E. 105 deg 08 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C25
H. 114 kt
I. 345 deg 17 nm 00:30:08Z
J. 064 deg 130 kt
K. 340 deg 26 nm 00:27:20Z
L. 87 kt
M. 151 deg 16 nm 00:38:29Z
N. 247 deg 98 kt
O. 151 deg 15 nm 00:38:11Z
P. 12 C / 2466 m
Q. 18 C / 2460 m
R. 18 C / NA
S. 1234 / NA
T. 0.01 / 0.5 nm
U. NOAA3 WD20A TEDDY OB 09
MAX FL WIND 131 KT 030 / 25 NM 22:52:29Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 349 / 13 NM FROM FL CNTR

[CrazyC83]

It appears to be steady state right now. There's still plenty of time to intensify some more though.

[jaxfladude]

Latest thinking about Teddy if any impacts gone up down or too soon for now?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Scary, these semi-retired pro mets from New York/New Jersey I follow on Youtube (their nor'easter coverage in winter is top-notch) mentioned the legendary Saxby Gale of 1869 on their weather show tonight. Other than the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 (which was likely even stronger), the Saxby Gale is the benhcmark storm for my region.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/EmosQy-mr7c[/youtube]

[aspen]

I’m very tempted to think Teddy is done with significant intensification...but we were all saying stuff along those lines exactly 24 hours ago, and look what happened next. I’ll give him a 50/50 shot of getting any stronger than 120 kt in the next 24-36 hours.

[ElectricStorm]

I’m very tempted to think Teddy is done with significant intensification...but we were all saying stuff along those lines exactly 24 hours ago, and look what happened next. I’ll give him a 50/50 shot of getting any stronger than 120 kt in the next 24-36 hours.

Even if he doesn't... Still very impressive

[Hurricane Mike]

I’m very tempted to think Teddy is done with significant intensification...but we were all saying stuff along those lines exactly 24 hours ago, and look what happened next. I’ll give him a 50/50 shot of getting any stronger than 120 kt in the next 24-36 hours.

Even if he doesn't... Still very impressive

Agree. I think Hurricane Teddy is gonna put out some insane swells.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The center would pass directly through Halifax, Nova Scotia by Tuesday night if the latest advisory track projection holds, not good. For some context, Halifax is the most populated regional city East of Boston.

[ElectricStorm]

Teddy's wind field is going to be absolutely huge at the end of the forecast

[SconnieCane]

Probably just wobbling along a general NW heading, but after appearing to move almost due north earlier, Teddy now appears to be moving almost due west. Approaching 55 degrees west just shy of 21 north.

[supercane4867]

Eye has improved in the past few hours.

[ClarCari]

The past couple hours had some lopsided cold cloud tops bulging on it’s SW side that’s now spinning back around the center. In combination with a boost from DMAX, Teddy should be able to make a big run for Cat.5 later today!

[Sciencerocks]

[bob rulz]

What's up with the glitchy GOES imagery recently?

[kevin]

Is it just me or did Teddy go down to cat 3 on the Storm2k image at the top of the page?

[Chris90]

Is it just me or did Teddy go down to cat 3 on the Storm2k image at the top of the page?

It’s because the new advisory from the NHC has Teddy at 115kts/130mph. 130mph on the old Saffir Simpson scale was a Cat 3 before the scale was updated to make 130mph a Cat 4. Storm2k coding seems to use the old scale. 130mph storms always show up as a 3 on the top of the page. It’s still a 4 officially, the NHC just bumped it down 5kts.

[Ryxn]

Is it just me or did Teddy go down to cat 3 on the Storm2k image at the top of the page?

It’s because the new advisory from the NHC has Teddy at 115kts/130mph. 130mph on the old Saffir Simpson scale was a Cat 3 before the scale was updated to make 130mph a Cat 4. Storm2k coding seems to use the old scale. 130mph storms always show up as a 3 on the top of the page. It’s still a 4 officially, the NHC just bumped it down 5kts.

Yeah I noticed this too. They do the same thing in reverse for 155MPH storms showing as Category 5 on Storm2k while actually being a high-end Category 4.

[Do_For_Love]

Teddy's getting some strong convection around the eyewall, looks to be stregthening to me.

Sadly it looks like the chances of big Bermuda impacts are increasing per the NHC discussion, and ATL Canada is solidly in the 4-5 day cone now. So much for our big fish storm, Teddy is dangerous now.

[Kazmit]

This should stop the dry air intrusions for now.

[cycloneye]

20L TEDDY 200918 1200 21.7N 55.8W ATL 115 947