ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[mpic]

There is ALOT of dry air around in the NW Gulf. Wouldn’t surprise me if Beta fails to become a hurricane. Also being that fronts are passing through or near the Gulf Coast this should be the last western Gulf threat of the season at least in my opinion.

I sure hope you're right. This has been a long season and been my best for being prepared. I would gladly count it off as a dead run.

[Horn1991]

I am seeing what could be a significant trend in recent model runs - taking Beta right into Texas with a much-delayed northerly turn. This would increase rain somewhat along the middle TX coast, but there will be so much dry air around it, that the rain may not be too bad. Only a few inches of rain for us in Houston if that happens. Haven't adjusted our track inland and weakening to a depression yet, but that is quite possible Decreasing chances it will become a hurricane, given the current issue with dry air.

Yep. An insane amount of dry air. This is much different setup than previous RI storms this year. Probably a mid level to high level tropical storm at landfall.

I’ll take that.

[wxman57]

I am seeing what could be a significant trend in recent model runs - taking Beta right into Texas with a much-delayed northerly turn. This would increase rain somewhat along the middle TX coast, but there will be so much dry air around it, that the rain may not be too bad. Only a few inches of rain for us in Houston if that happens. Haven't adjusted our track inland and weakening to a depression yet, but that is quite possible Decreasing chances it will become a hurricane, given the current issue with dry air.

The HWRF has been on this path for at least two days now (I'm sure you've seen that being in your position), and the Euro also showed it last run.

UKMET now, too.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Woah, that's a pretty intense area of lightning in the main CDO. Very interested to see how long it lasts.

[Blinhart]

Been waiting for the rain here in Crowley since yesterday, and still nothing. I know our local Mets are saying we can get anywhere from 2 to 10 inches of rain, I'm hoping for the lower end.

[Steve]

Been waiting for the rain here in Crowley since yesterday, and still nothing. I know our local Mets are saying we can get anywhere from 2 to 10 inches of rain, I'm hoping for the lower end.

It’s been drizzling here since yesterday. We caught rain almost all the way to the Panhandle this morning. It’s breezy and a little cool (mid 70’s).

[tailgater]

Any guesses what the the next advisory will look like. I’ll say 60mph and nearly stationary

[underthwx]

I am seeing what could be a significant trend in recent model runs - taking Beta right into Texas with a much-delayed northerly turn. This would increase rain somewhat along the middle TX coast, but there will be so much dry air around it, that the rain may not be too bad. Only a few inches of rain for us in Houston if that happens. Haven't adjusted our track inland and weakening to a depression yet, but that is quite possible Decreasing chances it will become a hurricane, given the current issue with dry air.

The HWRF has been on this path for at least two days now (I'm sure you've seen that being in your position), and the Euro also showed it last run.

UKMET now, too.

Wxman57....i have wondered exactly about what you wrote...a weatherman57 I am not...I look at the satellite images..and it seems to me that it may do as you suggest...to me its obvious that this dry air is a silver lining to this storm....moral of the story to me is....we don't need any more storms....I'm a fan of this dry air

[SohCahToa]

Been waiting for the rain here in Crowley since yesterday, and still nothing. I know our local Mets are saying we can get anywhere from 2 to 10 inches of rain, I'm hoping for the lower end.

It’s been drizzling here since yesterday. We caught rain almost all the way to the Panhandle this morning. It’s breezy and a little cool (mid 70’s).

Yeah I left the generator out when I saw this one pop up. Wind almost blew me off the Causeway earlier, but I think that has more to do with my car being a trash can than the wind speeds being that high.

That being said, just got word we are headed to Orange Beach to rebuild a roof top cell site destroyed by Sally, so I’ll get to see some of that damage first hand. Might get to avoid some of Betas rain as well. I’m dipping and dodging all these storms this year it appears

[galvbay]

Checking in from Smith Point TX. We are on the northern side of Galveston Bay. High point in the area...no flooding from Ike, Harvey and the 1900 storm according to the history books. Tides are up 1-2’.

[us89]

Any guesses what the the next advisory will look like. I’ll say 60mph and nearly stationary

Nailed it:

...BETA NOW STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 92.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

[edu2703]

NHC no longer forecast Beta to reach hurricane strength. Hurricane watches are still in place.

[Portastorm]

I am seeing what could be a significant trend in recent model runs - taking Beta right into Texas with a much-delayed northerly turn. This would increase rain somewhat along the middle TX coast, but there will be so much dry air around it, that the rain may not be too bad. Only a few inches of rain for us in Houston if that happens. Haven't adjusted our track inland and weakening to a depression yet, but that is quite possible Decreasing chances it will become a hurricane, given the current issue with dry air.

The HWRF has been on this path for at least two days now (I'm sure you've seen that being in your position), and the Euro also showed it last run.

UKMET now, too.

I was wondering if NHC's forecasted track inland might change as a result of this model trend but it doesn't look like it.

[ConvergenceZone]

NHC no longer forecast Beta to reach hurricane strength. Hurricane watches are still in place.

And the forum goes incredibly quiet
At least now I can get some stuff done this weekend not be pulled in to the excitement. Still hope the rain isn't too bad for you guys. Nice to catch a break though...

[Steve]

Been waiting for the rain here in Crowley since yesterday, and still nothing. I know our local Mets are saying we can get anywhere from 2 to 10 inches of rain, I'm hoping for the lower end.

It’s been drizzling here since yesterday. We caught rain almost all the way to the Panhandle this morning. It’s breezy and a little cool (mid 70’s).

Yeah I left the generator out when I saw this one pop up. Wind almost blew me off the Causeway earlier, but I think that has more to do with my car being a trash can than the wind speeds being that high.

That being said, just got word we are headed to Orange Beach to rebuild a roof top cell site destroyed by Sally, so I’ll get to see some of that damage first hand. Might get to avoid some of Betas rain as well. I’m dipping and dodging all these storms this year it appears

I was only on the I-10 and then Airport Rd in Pensacola. There were some downed trees and signs, but really just a few - mostly Baldwin and Escambia. There were a lot of limbs and leaf debris as well as downed branches and a few trees in NE Pensacola. We had some missing roof shingles. The French doors were stuck a little. I’m not sure if it was water swollen or if the winds altered the support a little. The refrigerator was rank as expected.

[SoupBone]

The HWRF has been on this path for at least two days now (I'm sure you've seen that being in your position), and the Euro also showed it last run.

UKMET now, too.

I was wondering if NHC's forecasted track inland might change as a result of this model trend but it doesn't look like it.

I imagine they are waiting for one more set of runs before moving the track more inland. The HWRF will again have nailed a track (at least in the short term) if this ends up inland. It's been persistent with that track.

[Blinhart]

It’s been drizzling here since yesterday. We caught rain almost all the way to the Panhandle this morning. It’s breezy and a little cool (mid 70’s).

Yeah I left the generator out when I saw this one pop up. Wind almost blew me off the Causeway earlier, but I think that has more to do with my car being a trash can than the wind speeds being that high.

That being said, just got word we are headed to Orange Beach to rebuild a roof top cell site destroyed by Sally, so I’ll get to see some of that damage first hand. Might get to avoid some of Betas rain as well. I’m dipping and dodging all these storms this year it appears

I was only on the I-10 and then Airport Rd in Pensacola. There were some downed trees and signs, but really just a few - mostly Baldwin and Escambia. There were a lot of limbs and leaf debris as well as downed branches and a few trees in NE Pensacola. We had some missing roof shingles. The French doors were stuck a little. I’m not sure if it was water swollen or if the winds altered the support a little. The refrigerator was rank as expected.

Glad to hear it wasn't that bad, but I would definitely get the French Doors inspected.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

BTW, a clear sign that a TC is a shear-driven cold-pool system are outflow boundaries.
The infeed is taken out by the large downdraft and LL wind direction changes from going into the tower to rushing away from the tower.
The refiring process then begins anew as the cold pool and shear create updrafts to again fire towers.

Interesting. Sounds fairly similar to a typical land-based MCS.

They all follow the same physics

Well...don’t we all.

[Steve]

^^ That’s on the HOA

[GCANE]

Recon on the runway