ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronjon]

Tornado Warning
LAC037-063-091-MSC005-270045-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0078.200827T0016Z-200827T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
716 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central St. Helena Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
North central Livingston Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Northeastern East Feliciana Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Southwestern Amite County in southern Mississippi...

* Until 745 PM CDT.

* At 715 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Montpelier, or 9 miles southwest of Amite, moving
northwest at 30 mph.

[jdjaguar]

Dark orange comparable to continental dry air now showing up inside the eye on WV rapidscan.

https://i.imgur.com/cn2K3K6.gif

Meaning continued Rapid intensification?

[KWT]

Eye definately contracting quite obviously now, the southern eyewall does look a little weaker than it was earlier and the pass from the south wasn't all that
impressive. However that northern eyewall looks amazing.

I'd be surprised if there isn't some cat-5 winds within that northern half of the eyewall.

[Hurrilurker]

Code: Select all

001030 2827N 09259W 6948 02672 9359 +228 +080 198014 016 033 005 00


Am I reading that right? 935.9 mb with 14 kt wind?

[HurricaneEdouard]

936mb compared to the NHC's 940mb. Another 4mb drop since the last pass.

The extrap pressures have a low bias; actual pressure is probably 938mb or 939mb, a 1mb or 2mb drop since the last pass.

[eastcoastFL]

[BigB0882]

The school I teach at was one of only three in the Baton Rouge area that opened today and we spent the afternoon in the halls during tornado warnings. Lots of mad parents. That was exactly why the other districts didn’t have school today.

[hurricaneCW]

We're about 6-7hrs from landfall and she's still intensifying. An EWRC ain't coming to save the day and so far the shear isn't impeding it much.

Seems likely this will hit as a 145-155mph storm, devastating impacts for SW Louisiana.

[FLpanhandle91]

133 knot unflagged. 137 knot flagged.

[cheezyWXguy]

Code: Select all

001030 2827N 09259W 6948 02672 9359 +228 +080 198014 016 033 005 00


Am I reading that right? 935.9 mb with 14 kt wind?

Looks like 16kt to me. This factored in with the low bias of the pressure extrapolator probably makes about 936-937mb

[sgastorm]

I'm expecting the Lake Charles radar site to crash peak storm and continue to display a terrifying image of Laura's core...much like PR's radar did during Maria. This is going to be a multi generational "date" storm for the impact zone. Everyone will speak in pre and post Laura terms for a couple of generations...much like those in south florida have done for Andrew or those on the MS gulf coast and SE LA coast do for Katrina. Another random thought about hurricane season in general...this will be another massive anniversary storm that fits nicely into the anniversary storm calendar hot zone...latter August into October. We're just into the hot zone. Dr Gray is still correct..for the bell hath tolled.

Or the last image from the Miami radar before Andrew knocked it off the building.

[HurricaneEdouard]

Wind shear over Laura is 25-30 knots. Incredibly impressive intensification given the cooler continental shelf waters and the now moderate wind shear; if the core continues to hold up, I wouldn't be surprised if we just edge into Category 5 given these rapid pressure drops.

[KWT]

133 knot unflagged. 137 knot flagged.

Identical to the previous pass to the exact degree...

Man it really is so close!

[galaxy401]

Potential Category 5 winds found on SMFR recon though it might be flagged. Supports a 135 kt intensity though...

[supercane4867]

133 knot unflagged. 137 knot flagged.

135kt is a good estimate for now. Just need to wait for the next few passes to get a unflagged reading.

[Sciencerocks]

Wind shear over Laura is 25-30 knots. Incredibly impressive intensification given the cooler continental shelf waters and the now moderate wind shear; if the core continues to hold up, I do expect a Category 5 hurricane given these rapid pressure drops (5mb in one hour?).

https://i.imgur.com/qpIgV8i.jpg

Its probably why the southern eyewall is so much weaker and thinner as shear is starting to get to it. It is probably pretty much at its peak and I'd say it is around 135 knots currently.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

133 knots in the northern quadrant.

Winds are probably slightly stronger in the northeastern quadrant, so I wouldn't be surprised if the next pass finds Category 5 winds.

[KWT]

133 knot unflagged. 137 knot flagged.

135kt is a good estimate for now. Just need to wait for the next few passes to get a unflagged reading.

Its exactly the same as the last pass, and so it probably won't on its own merit an upgrade given the last pass didn't. IF we get a dropsonde in that 132-135kts range though that probably shifts the balance enough.

Real close though, again you've got to think one of these passes will find the required winds.

[GCANE]

Tornado warnings coming in about every three to five minutes

[tolakram]

There is no upper shear, any shear is in the mid levels. Levi explained this in his video update.