ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneEdouard]

Wind shear over Laura is 25-30 knots. Incredibly impressive intensification given the cooler continental shelf waters and the now moderate wind shear; if the core continues to hold up, I do expect a Category 5 hurricane given these rapid pressure drops.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/qpIgV8i.jpg[url]

This type of shear so long it remains away from the mid levels will enhance the system and its effects until it moves in land. Around then it'll start to get shredded.

According to Levi it is mid-level shear...?

[supercane4867]

WV channel is very telling in terms of intensification trend.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[ozonepete]

Wind shear over Laura is 25-30 knots. Incredibly impressive intensification given the cooler continental shelf waters and the now moderate wind shear; if the core continues to hold up, I do expect a Category 5 hurricane given these rapid pressure drops.

https://i.imgur.com/qpIgV8i.jpg

CIMSS shear map is not accurate for real-time reference. Maximum wind shear that Laura is currently experiencing is probably no more than 15-20kts.

Yes, please don't use CIMSS shear maps like that for real time. Besides the fact that it is not totally real time it also has a 50-100 mile grid error so the high shear you see with those red lines could be 100 miles further to the north inland and thus having no effect on this storm.

[ColdMiser123]

Dropsonde splashed at 940 mb with 30 KT surface wind, supports 937 mb, a 3 mb drop in an hour. Still deepening.

[HurricaneEdouard]

Wind shear over Laura is 25-30 knots. Incredibly impressive intensification given the cooler continental shelf waters and the now moderate wind shear; if the core continues to hold up, I wouldn't be surprised if we just edge into Category 5 given these rapid pressure drops.

https://i.imgur.com/qpIgV8i.jpg

Matthew rapidly intensified under similar conditions.

Often seems to briefly boost a hurricane before landfall.

[supercane4867]

It's only a matter of time before the two recon missions find CAT5 winds somewhere in that eyewall. Chill...

[Cataegis96]

Absolutely speechless what is happening right now. The E-W pass should confirm a cat 5 imho.

[cfisher]

Laura's outflow is obliterating the trough that sheared Marco.

[Powellrm]

If Laura stays fairly tightly wound up and makes landfall as a cat 4.9 in a relatively abandoned community it might be better than if the squall lines band outward quickly expanding the wind field over 100 miles.

cat 4.9?????????????

*cat 4.99

[xironman]

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/129 ... gr%5Etweet

Sulfur looks like a good choice for being in the eye, having a parking garage not so much.

[Mob1]

The smallest east wobble can make a MASSIVE difference for how severe the storm surge is in Lake Charles. On the flip side of that, any western component to Laura's movement and they're in a lot of trouble.

[Highteeld]

dropping 3 mb/hr

[SunnyThoughts]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJMX4AX ... e=youtu.be

This guy has cameras rolling in Lake Charles ( I believe its lake charles) he isns't there...but has cameras rolling and is online ..says will keep the cameras going until loses power.

[NDG]

I think they need to upgrade it to a Cat 5, it continues to strengthen is surely not leveling off just yet, but what does just a few miles will do, still the same destruction but upgrading it will make people leave in case they haven't yet.

[KWT]

Dropsonde supports 937mbs at the moment, so still in a deepening phase. Remember also that the 140kts winds were found at 937mbs on one of the previous dropsonde's in the northern eyewall.

Must be real close now everyone.

[AnnularCane]

Laura's outflow is obliterating the trough that sheared Marco.

Somehow that doesn't surprise me.

[PandaCitrus]

Right now is setting up to be a wipeout scenario for Lake Charles. They will get the eye directly over them or the eyewall and even though 30 miles inland...should still mean Cat 3/4 sustained winds at least with Cat 5 gusts possible. Along with record surge. The city is probably wiped out and the Lake Charles metro has almost 200,000 people so it's going to be a major disaster.

If Laura stays fairly tightly wound up and makes landfall as a cat 4.9 in a relatively abandoned community it might be better than if the squall lines band outward quickly expanding the wind field over 100 miles.

[gatorcane]

[Highteeld]

Nearly tied with Dorian in terms of eye temp. Also only .09*C shy of the 90*C threshold most cat 5's experience per ADT.

2020AUG27 002020 6.4 929.0 124.6 6.4 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 21.21 -68.70 EYE 26 IR 69.2 28.60 93.00 ARCHER GOES16 38.7

[GCANE]

Eyewall lightning is increasing