ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Wind shear over Laura is 25-30 knots. Incredibly impressive intensification given the cooler continental shelf waters and the now moderate wind shear; if the core continues to hold up, I do expect a Category 5 hurricane given these rapid pressure drops.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/qpIgV8i.jpg[url]

This type of shear so long it remains away from the mid levels will enhance the system and its effects until it moves in land. Around then it'll start to get shredded.

According to Levi it is mid-level shear...?

Here's the CIMSS mid level shear chart:


Embedded within 10-15kts of mid level shear.

[ajurcat]

I can only imagine what we're seeing now is akin to what we would've seen during the 1856 Last Island, 1886 Indianola, or 1932 Freeport Hurricanes if we had the technology then. Stunning.

Quick history of Indianola:

Indianola is a ghost town located on Matagorda Bay in Calhoun County, Texas, United States. The community, once the county seat of Calhoun County, is a part of the Victoria, Texas, Metropolitan Statistical Area. In 1875, the city had a population of 5,000, but on September 15 of that year, a powerful hurricane struck, killing between 150 and 300 and almost entirely destroying the town. Indianola was rebuilt, only to be wiped out on August 19, 1886, by another intense hurricane, which was followed by a fire. Indianola was designated a Recorded Texas Historic Landmark in 1963, marker number 2642.[1]

Indianola is coming back. We go fishing there. During Hurricane Hanna, the was a fire at the marina but they are planning to rebuild.

[Beef Stew]

It really just looks like a matter of when, not if, recon verifies 160 mph winds. I'm truly at a loss for words.

[Highteeld]

Obvious stadium effect on radar

[gatorcane]

[psyclone]

I think they need to upgrade it to a Cat 5, it continues to strengthen is surely not leveling off just yet, but what does just a few miles will do, still the same destruction but upgrading it will make people leave in case they haven't yet.

I'm not a fan of moving the goal post to get people to take action. if you haven't taken action yet...ain't nothing going to change that. Cat 5 storms are top of the pile. Make it earn every bit of it. it's close. no cheating

[ozonepete]

The smallest east wobble can make a MASSIVE difference for how severe the storm surge is in Lake Charles. On the flip side of that, any western component to Laura's movement and they're in a lot of trouble.

Small wobbles do not make any difference in the surge. The surge is dozens of miles ahead of and to the right of the line of motion so a wobble of a few miles makes no difference.

[Kingarabian]

AF plane closing in on Luara.

NOAA plane looks like it's about to do a NW-SE pass.

AF should be prepping a NE-SE pass after the NOAA pass is complete.

[sweetpea]

Reed Timmer is live on FB right now, driving through Lake Charles.

https://www.facebook.com/reedtimmer2.0/ ... 4490361335

Please delete if not allowed to post this.

[eastcoastFL]

Man on that live cam in Cameron the surge is really coming in and starting to rise.

[tolakram]

[EnnisTx]

It really just looks like a matter of when, not if, recon verifies 160 mph winds. I'm truly at a loss for words.

158 mph in the Northern eye wall

[eastcoastFL]

Reed Timmer is live on FB right now, driving through Lake Charles.

https://www.facebook.com/reedtimmer2.0/ ... 4490361335

Please delete if not allowed to post this.

Is he going to be live again?

[jlauderdal]

Obvious stadium effect on radar

https://i.imgur.com/gOA2jRg.png

you might want to turn smoothing on in gr2 analyst

[cfisher]

Sheriff is saying 100-150 people staying in Cameron Parrish overnight. Very sad situation

[supercane4867]

If Laura does make landfall at an official intensity of CAT5, it will be the first ever hurricane to be operationally classified as CAT5 at US landfall. Both Andrew and Michael were upgraded posthumously and the SSHS scale was not introduced yet in 1969 when Camille made landfall.

[ozonepete]

Nearly tied with Dorian in terms of eye temp. Also only .09*C shy of the 90*C threshold most cat 5's experience per ADT.

2020AUG27 002020 6.4 929.0 124.6 6.4 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 21.21 -68.70 EYE 26 IR 69.2 28.60 93.00 ARCHER GOES16 38.7

Are you talking about cloud top temps? You mean -90C?

[gatorcane]

[Rail Dawg]

Am watching all the posts here. Storm2k is awesome for instant info! Please keep it up!

Winds picking up here Lake Charles.

Chuck

[Rail Dawg]

I call it Lake Chuck lol.

Chuck