ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Definitely a fighter to have lasted this long. Well we know that is absolutely HAS to get get busy during the next two weeks since we are heading into the last part of August. It’s going to be insane!!

[GCANE]

PR is about to go

[wxman57]

Visible satellite indicates the little swirly center is gone. Recon would not be able to close off a circulation this afternoon. It's been torn apart by shear. I'm sure that the forecasters at the NHC see the same thing. It's a wave, no matter if it's still classified as a TS. The NHC discussion will be interesting.

[Aric Dunn]

Visible satellite indicates the little swirly center is gone. Recon would not be able to close off a circulation this afternoon. It's been torn apart by shear. I'm sure that the forecasters at the NHC see the same thing. It's a wave, no matter if it's still classified as a TS. The NHC discussion will be interesting.

No,

A convective burst has covered it up again. very clear..

[1900hurricane]

Notable downturn in curved cloud lines around the exposed center. It's hanging on by a thread.

[Aric Dunn]

Notable downturn in curved cloud lines around the exposed center. It's hanging on by a thread.

https://i.imgur.com/JRm3vrk.gif

if you watch it.. a pressure wave from the convective burst passed by. been happening multiple times a day.

[GCANE]

Its that time of day and the towers are beginning to rumble.
In feed pouring into a whole line of them.
Watching Mid-level WV loop and got Bolero going.
I know, I need to seek professional help.

[Aric Dunn]

kept it at 45 mph.. make sense.

[xironman]

Deep shear is brutal, mid level not so bad. The convection over Hispaniola may moisten the mid level environment

[Aric Dunn]

Deep shear is brutal, mid level not so bad. The convection over Hispaniola may moisten the mid level environment

https://i.imgur.com/1tsOZgm.jpg

That is likely why it has been surviving.. shear is 300mb and up. many systems have survived such shear.. its the mid level shear that will take out a system in hours.

[Hurricane Jed]

When the NHC kills it they’ll kill it. Stop questioning them and recon and jumping down their throats. They’re the experts. Recon is there not you.

[xironman]

When the NHC kills it they’ll kill it. Stop questioning them and recon and jumping down their throats. They’re the experts. Recon is there not you.

Well they are probably looking at the next recon before a final decison.

Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system near 0000Z.

[ozonepete]

Easy to see the shear belt on WV imagery extending from Hispaniola towards Josephine. Here's a couple of upshear soundings too, which show the upcoming envioronment.

https://i.imgur.com/j3p8KPC.gif

https://i.imgur.com/BkCo6uB.gif

https://i.imgur.com/er9aphs.gif

Exactly why this will probably continue to survive a lot longer than what people have been thinking.
all the shear is above the mid levels. 300mb and up.


or who knows maybe it will just get lost in the Bermuda triangle.

Survive is a bit of a relative term. The vorticity will be traceable for a while, and who knows, it might get a chance to build up if it can successfully cross TUTT alley. Now, will it be a closed entity is perhaps a more open question. Those westerlies south of the center on the last recon are what I would call hanging on by a thread. There wasn't even any real signature of them to the SW of the center before recon ascended, so we're just barely there right now.

https://i.imgur.com/65HyMMP.png

Just to be clear here. Survive, whether for cyclones or people, has only one meaning: doesn't die.

[hipshot]

If GFS gives Jo another 24 hrs, she may have 3 new friends to play with.

https://i.imgur.com/xW05FPN.png

https://i.imgur.com/bcGnAMe.png

https://i.imgur.com/ESdhOMY.png

What does that mean (3 new friends)?

[1900hurricane]

NHC discussion looks about right on the money (probably to no one's surprise). Bet recon still finds the center closed, but it's really struggling right now.

[GCANE]

If GFS gives Jo another 24 hrs, she may have 3 new friends to play with.

https://i.imgur.com/xW05FPN.png

https://i.imgur.com/bcGnAMe.png

https://i.imgur.com/ESdhOMY.png

What does that mean (3 new friends)?

Convection from these would alter the forecasted trofs and possibly create a large "synoptic-scale" anticyclone (I call an Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break) over the SE CONUS extending into the Bahamas. Would open the door for Jo to track more west and strengthen if she can hold on another 24 to 48 hrs.

[eastcoastFL]

Visible satellite indicates the little swirly center is gone. Recon would not be able to close off a circulation this afternoon. It's been torn apart by shear. I'm sure that the forecasters at the NHC see the same thing. It's a wave, no matter if it's still classified as a TS. The NHC discussion will be interesting.

Jo seems to be determined to prove you wrong. Every time you kill her off she starts to fire off convection. Maybe if there’s a bad storm threat later this season you can try reverse psychology

[eastcoastFL]

You can really see the difference of the shear at different levels



Mid level isn’t bad at all

[ozonepete]

Deep shear is brutal, mid level not so bad. The convection over Hispaniola may moisten the mid level environment

https://i.imgur.com/1tsOZgm.jpg

That is likely why it has been surviving.. shear is 300mb and up. many systems have survived such shear.. its the mid level shear that will take out a system in hours.

I don't really see why some here can't understand this. Many steadliy westward moving TCs in the Atlantic basin have gone hundreds and hundreds of miles under 30 knot southwesterly shear without dissipating or weakening and then have intensified when the shear dropped. Why? Because the shear was all in the upper levels at 300 or 200 mb. If the rest of the environment (warm water, good mid-level water vapor) is favorable, southwesterly shear at that level tilts the storm's core from southwest to northeast but still vents the TC at the top, allowing for the storm to persist. That's exactly what's going on here. If it survives the small amount of mid-level dry air left in front of it (like GCANE has shown) and shear doesn't increase any more, it can survive into a lower shear environment. That's why the NHC is not writing it off as fast as many on here are.

[eastcoastFL]

Deep shear is brutal, mid level not so bad. The convection over Hispaniola may moisten the mid level environment

https://i.imgur.com/1tsOZgm.jpg

That is likely why it has been surviving.. shear is 300mb and up. many systems have survived such shear.. its the mid level shear that will take out a system in hours.

I don't really see why some here can't understand this. Many steadliy westward moving TCs in the Atlantic basin have gone hundreds and hundreds of miles under 30 knot southwesterly shear without dissipating or weakening and then have intensified when the shear dropped. Why? Because the shear was all in the upper levels at 300 or 200 mb. If the rest of the environment (warm water, good mid-level water vapor) is favorable, southwesterly shear at that level tilts the storm's core from southwest to northeast but still vents the TC at the top, allowing for the storm to persist. That's exactly what's going on here. If it survives the small amount of mid-level dry air left in front of it (like GCANE has shown) and shear doesn't increase any more, it can survive into a lower shear environment. That's why the NHC is not writing it off as fast as many on here are.

I have a somewhat off topic question. Is it possible that all of this activity in one region could make it so that significant development in the future is less likely? Like could constant low grade TCs, constant rain and cloud cover make it so that this part of the ocean is not conducive for strengthening storms in the future?