ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
The next pass will determine how fast Eta is intensifying. For comparison to determine the pressure fall rate, the minimum pressure of last pass was 973.9 mbar extrapolated at 11:11z.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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supercane4867
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supercane4867
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Highteeld wrote:us89 wrote:Highteeld wrote:Crazy cloud tops, not unlike Goni in the western pacific
Oh god, let's not go there...
https://i.imgur.com/hpNCUu4.png
How strong is that!?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
The WCar really has had a thing this year for rapidly intensifying compact/pinhole systems — Marco, Nana, Delta, and now Eta. This might be the one that actually takes full advantage of being a pinhole, unless mid-level shear shows up at the last moment.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/jJJkDrl.gif
I see an eye developing
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
The map is fixed! I like that better than the old one! 
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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ouragans
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Blinhart wrote:Has there ever been a system that has crossed over from the Atlantic to the Pacific and then crossed back over to the Atlantic??
I found no record of a double crossover, since 1851
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Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:The WCar really has had a thing this year for rapidly intensifying compact/pinhole systems — Marco, Nana, Delta, and now Eta. This might be the one that actually takes full advantage of being a pinhole, unless mid-level shear shows up at the last moment.
Feels like the WCar is making up for lost time. Unfortunate for those in Honduras and Nicaragua. I think it's more likely than not this will be a Cat. 4 near the coast.
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Andrew (1992), Irene (1999), Frances (2004), Katrina (2005), Wilma (2005), Fay (2008), Irma (2017), Eta (2020), Ian (2022)
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shiny-pebble
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
It looks like convection just fired clouding over the eye more. I think when cloud tops warm some today due to diurnal processes we will be able to see a clearing eye
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Not an meteorologist! Just someone who is interested in weather. Please refer to the NHC and local weather officials to make decisions.
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
New Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure is 968.3 mbar so 5.6 mbar lower than the 973.9 mbar measured at 11:11z. So an intensification rate of 4.3 mbar/hr 
. Could theoretically reach 920s within 10 hours if it keeps up intensifying like this.
. Could theoretically reach 920s within 10 hours if it keeps up intensifying like this.
Last edited by kevin on Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:39 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Cat 2
URNT15 KNHC 021234
AF303 0229A ETA HDOB 33 20201102
122500 1447N 08106W 6971 02936 9748 +151 +059 208049 056 049 004 00
122530 1448N 08107W 6963 02922 9730 +145 +063 181031 042 045 001 03
122600 1449N 08109W 6974 02898 9722 +141 +069 145019 027 /// /// 03
122630 1448N 08110W 6947 02919 9712 +140 +075 098003 013 026 001 03
122700 1447N 08112W 6963 02904 9712 +144 +080 308012 015 031 004 00
122730 1445N 08113W 6963 02911 9722 +142 +083 290035 050 043 013 03
122800 1443N 08113W 6968 02933 9741 +149 +085 284059 067 /// /// 03
122830 1442N 08111W 6946 02979 9765 +143 +084 276061 067 /// /// 03
122900 1443N 08109W 6964 02948 9776 +128 +085 246050 055 /// /// 03
122930 1445N 08108W 6984 02906 9716 +166 +084 224039 046 041 001 00
123000 1447N 08109W 6950 02928 9683 +176 +084 208036 041 034 002 03
123030 1448N 08110W 6980 02879 9699 +149 +090 172008 031 /// /// 03
123100 1448N 08112W 6959 02905 9716 +133 +093 017019 026 037 002 03
123130 1448N 08114W 6978 02899 9743 +124 +094 019035 036 041 004 00
123200 1449N 08115W 6963 02931 9755 +127 +091 023044 048 063 009 00
123230 1451N 08116W 6968 02937 9783 +116 +088 025052 056 088 021 00
123300 1452N 08118W 6971 02950 9811 +107 +083 031067 072 090 036 00
123330 1453N 08119W 6949 02995 9850 +099 +077 038080 086 076 059 03
123400 1454N 08120W 6963 03004 9883 +097 +072 040086 088 073 064 03
123430 1455N 08121W 6972 03021 9912 +094 +067 047079 086 072 018 00
$$
URNT15 KNHC 021234
AF303 0229A ETA HDOB 33 20201102
122500 1447N 08106W 6971 02936 9748 +151 +059 208049 056 049 004 00
122530 1448N 08107W 6963 02922 9730 +145 +063 181031 042 045 001 03
122600 1449N 08109W 6974 02898 9722 +141 +069 145019 027 /// /// 03
122630 1448N 08110W 6947 02919 9712 +140 +075 098003 013 026 001 03
122700 1447N 08112W 6963 02904 9712 +144 +080 308012 015 031 004 00
122730 1445N 08113W 6963 02911 9722 +142 +083 290035 050 043 013 03
122800 1443N 08113W 6968 02933 9741 +149 +085 284059 067 /// /// 03
122830 1442N 08111W 6946 02979 9765 +143 +084 276061 067 /// /// 03
122900 1443N 08109W 6964 02948 9776 +128 +085 246050 055 /// /// 03
122930 1445N 08108W 6984 02906 9716 +166 +084 224039 046 041 001 00
123000 1447N 08109W 6950 02928 9683 +176 +084 208036 041 034 002 03
123030 1448N 08110W 6980 02879 9699 +149 +090 172008 031 /// /// 03
123100 1448N 08112W 6959 02905 9716 +133 +093 017019 026 037 002 03
123130 1448N 08114W 6978 02899 9743 +124 +094 019035 036 041 004 00
123200 1449N 08115W 6963 02931 9755 +127 +091 023044 048 063 009 00
123230 1451N 08116W 6968 02937 9783 +116 +088 025052 056 088 021 00
123300 1452N 08118W 6971 02950 9811 +107 +083 031067 072 090 036 00
123330 1453N 08119W 6949 02995 9850 +099 +077 038080 086 076 059 03
123400 1454N 08120W 6963 03004 9883 +097 +072 040086 088 073 064 03
123430 1455N 08121W 6972 03021 9912 +094 +067 047079 086 072 018 00
$$
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Hello Cat 2 Eta. This pass supports 968-970 mbar and 85-90 kt.
With an extrapolated pressure of 968.3 mbar, the deepening rate between the two passes is a whopping 4.25 mb/hr, fast enough to get below Laura’s peak of 937 mbar in just a little over 7 hours. However, the third pass is required to determine if this rate is consistent.
With an extrapolated pressure of 968.3 mbar, the deepening rate between the two passes is a whopping 4.25 mb/hr, fast enough to get below Laura’s peak of 937 mbar in just a little over 7 hours. However, the third pass is required to determine if this rate is consistent.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
That's a 5 mb drop between two passes. SFMR ~90 knots.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:The map is fixed! I like that better than the old one!
I noticed that when I checked in this morning, it's not only fixed but much better than the old one, I like it!
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
These Greek names have been the bread winners this year, that's for certain.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
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supercane4867
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