ATL: ETA - Models

[HurricaneBelle]

I like how NWS Tampa Bay refers to Eta without actually referring to Eta in its latest forecast discussion:

THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE-WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK REGARDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

[SFLcane]

12 models look at the hook.. pretty soon nhc will be on its own.

[Blown Away]

06z Guidance

12z Guidance

12z Intensity Guidance.

[cjrciadt]

With the UKmet even going NE now, the next day 5 day track will be shifted a bit!

[AutoPenalti]

Adrian, you think this will still have a core after 3 days in land over some the highest terrain in Central America?

[eastcoastFL]

I guess it’s becoming more that there will be a hurricane in the NW Caribbean once Eta re-emerges in the Gulf of Honduras later this week. From there I could see this meandering around the NW Caribbean for a bit. The 06z GFS has a major hitting South Florida beyond 300hrs., been there too many times before to know better.

It’s not just op models there is ensemble support
from the EPS and GEFS.

A mid November strong 'cane into the FL peninsula. That would be one for the books. The ONLY one for the books.

The thing about trends is that eventually they end and things change. Those 1 in 500 year storms eventually show up and norms are always defied at some point. You really can’t deny the set up with the ridge still in place so it’s real possibility. Now how strong it is when it gets towards CONJS is anyone’s guess.

[SFLcane]

Adrian, you think this will still have a core after 3 days in land over some the highest terrain in Central America?

Yes I think there will be some sort of a circulation left moving into the nw Caribbean. I also think the stronger this gets increases the odds also. Its rapidly intensifying this morning we are look looking potentially at high end cat 3 or 4 before it moves into CA.

Watching closely!

[boca]

https://i.imgur.com/66vRCYH.jpg
06z Guidance
https://i.imgur.com/9FO61Ja.jpg
12z Guidance
https://i.imgur.com/ifdQ8pP.jpg
12z Intensity Guidance.

If that track where to verify Eta would go SE of South Florida.

[Weatherboy1]

I can see birds inside the eye.

https://i.postimg.cc/fR8t93JX/603-A7093-9831-4-C99-9294-4-E48934-F9724.jpg

So many Wilma memories conjured up by that simulated IR image!

[toad strangler]

Adrian, you think this will still have a core after 3 days in land over some the highest terrain in Central America?

Yes I think there will be some sort of a circulation left moving into the nw Caribbean. I also think the stronger this gets increases the odds also. Its rapidly intensifying this morning we are look looking potentially at high end cat 3 or 4 before it moves into CA.

Watching closely!

I would think that the stronger Eta gets the more it gets hurt by the mountains. A tight storm that unravels and loses all that momentum has a tougher time pulling it all back together. The models are surely struggling with that aspect.

[chaser1]

It's about time to start playing Florida Model Bingo boy's and girls . Everyone get their cards out and start checking off all the cities that models are projecting landfall. We should achieve a full-card bingo within the next 3 days along

[chaser1]

Adrian, you think this will still have a core after 3 days in land over some the highest terrain in Central America?

Yes I think there will be some sort of a circulation left moving into the nw Caribbean. I also think the stronger this gets increases the odds also. Its rapidly intensifying this morning we are look looking potentially at high end cat 3 or 4 before it moves into CA.

Watching closely!

I would think that the stronger Eta gets the more it gets hurt by the mountains. A tight storm that unravels and loses all that momentum has a tougher time pulling it all back together. The models are surely struggling with that aspect.

I would tend to agree. Pretty hard to see a broad wrecked mid level core to quickly re-consolidate north of Honduras. Perhaps land interaction will prove to occur over a significantly shorter period of time?

[SFLcane]

Adrian, you think this will still have a core after 3 days in land over some the highest terrain in Central America?

Yes I think there will be some sort of a circulation left moving into the nw Caribbean. I also think the stronger this gets increases the odds also. Its rapidly intensifying this morning we are look looking potentially at high end cat 3 or 4 before it moves into CA.

Watching closely!

I would think that the stronger Eta gets the more it gets hurt by the mountains. A tight storm that unravels and loses all that momentum has a tougher time pulling it all back together. The models are surely struggling with that aspect.

I really think we are going to be looking at a potential hurricane in the nw Caribbean late this week. upgraded GEFS and euro ensembles are certainly showing that possibility. IF there’s something there we might be in trouble as it will be just waiting for a trof to scoop it up our way.

[lando]

https://i.imgur.com/66vRCYH.jpg
06z Guidance
https://i.imgur.com/9FO61Ja.jpg
12z Guidance
https://i.imgur.com/ifdQ8pP.jpg
12z Intensity Guidance.

If that track where to verify Eta would go SE of South Florida.

Except that further out, these models show the high pressure building back west over Florida, leading to a 180 with movement west-nw before possibly bending back e ne with a passing trough

[p1nheadlarry]

Just saw the long range GFS.

"Surely the long-range Euro isn't as insane." *checks*

[Evil Jeremy]

This seems like a fittingly unpredictable grand-finale (I hope) for the 2020 season. All the Globals show Eta thriving in the NW Carib around the end of this week, and they're all ejecting the system in different directions and different times. But they agree there will be a strong storm sitting in the area.

[p1nheadlarry]

I guess it’s becoming more that there will be a hurricane in the NW Caribbean once Eta re-emerges in the Gulf of Honduras later this week. From there I could see this meandering around the NW Caribbean for a bit. The 06z GFS has a major hitting South Florida beyond 300hrs., been there too many times before to know better.

It’s not just op models there is ensemble support
from the EPS and GEFS.

A mid November strong 'cane into the FL peninsula. That would be one for the books. The ONLY one for the books.

Not the peninsula but Hurricane Kate hit Mexico Beach as a solid Cat-2 right around Thanksgiving in '85. Worst storm in the Big Bend region until Oct 10 2018.

[p1nheadlarry]

Only parallel I can think of is Michelle in 2001

[toad strangler]

It’s not just op models there is ensemble support
from the EPS and GEFS.

A mid November strong 'cane into the FL peninsula. That would be one for the books. The ONLY one for the books.

Not the peninsula but Hurricane Kate hit Mexico Beach as a solid Cat-2 right around Thanksgiving in '85. Worst storm in the Big Bend region until Oct 10 2018.

Indeed but Kate was not a Caribbean storm. She is one of your TWO examples since 1859 … the other was not of Caribbean origin either. So this would be a first time for the books should it happen. Still a long shot though.

[SFLcane]

This seems like a fittingly unpredictable grand-finale (I hope) for the 2020 season. All the Globals show Eta thriving in the NW Carib around the end of this week, and they're all ejecting the system in different directions and different times. But they agree there will be a strong storm sitting in the area.

Grand finale potentially but probably not. I have had this feeling Florida isn’t getting out this historic season without impacts. We will see