ATL: LAURA - Models

[TheStormExpert]

Enjoy Island tour

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/19/747cc753b6391bf859a26701aa0be64d-full.png

At this point we’ll probably be looking at a Caribbean Cruiser this time tomorrow. This season has been a pain and weird to watch evolve.

[toad strangler]

Enjoy Island tour

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/19/747cc753b6391bf859a26701aa0be64d-full.png

Ouch to the GA's

[AutoPenalti]

12z models Lol see ya... will never amount to much if trends continue. Enjoy Island tour

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/19/747cc753b6391bf859a26701aa0be64d-full.png

Agree. It appears it’s going to take a visit to the Graveyard of hurricanes. Only concern is if does more of a Charley/Ivan and heads south of Haiti/Cuba. That seems more plausible right now compared to hit heading north of them.

Looking better for the east coast. The GOM still needs to keep an eye on it for the south track.

Looking better seems to be a bit premature in this case. If the EURO itself can't resolve a solution within 24 hours of each run, this can go either way.

[BYG Jacob]

The Euro and GFS are John Travolta looking around.

What do you MEAN there's a hurricane!?

[WeatherEmperor]

I am not sure if the Navgem was posted yet but here is 6z Navgem




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

Cat 2 near SFL..

[WeatherEmperor]

Cat 2 near SFL..

[i://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/19/ff4a8100396798de50ae20d1ac298621-full.gif[/img]

Is this HAFS going to replace the HMON or HWRF? I think I read that somewhere


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

Cat 2 near SFL..

[i://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/19/ff4a8100396798de50ae20d1ac298621-full.gif[/url]

Is this HAFS going to replace the HMON or HWRF? I think I read that somewhere


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

HWRF.. its currently experimental but has a good track record.

[St0rmTh0r]

Is it possible this could take an Ike like path?

[Cpv17]

Is it possible this could take an Ike like path?

I’d say yes. Lots of tracks are possible right now.

[Shell Mound]

12z models Lol see ya... will never amount to much if trends continue. Enjoy Island tour

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/19/747cc753b6391bf859a26701aa0be64d-full.png

Agree. It appears it’s going to take a visit to the Graveyard of hurricanes. Only concern is if does more of a Charley/Ivan and heads south of Haiti/Cuba. That seems more plausible right now compared to hit heading north of them.

Looking better for the east coast. The GOM still needs to keep an eye on it for the south track.

Are we looking at two different systems? I see a WPAC-like system with a well-organised structure and convection pulsing through the diurnal minimum.

Once this becomes a low-end tropical storm in another day and a half, expect steady intensification. Please do not sound “all clear” for anyone.

[Nuno]

12z models Lol see ya... will never amount to much if trends continue. Enjoy Island tour

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/19/747cc753b6391bf859a26701aa0be64d-full.png

Agree. It appears it’s going to take a visit to the Graveyard of hurricanes. Only concern is if does more of a Charley/Ivan and heads south of Haiti/Cuba. That seems more plausible right now compared to hit heading north of them.

Looking better for the east coast. The GOM still needs to keep an eye on it for the south track.

Are we looking at two different systems? I see a WPAC-like system with a well-organised structure and convection pulsing through the diurnal minimum.

Once this becomes a low-end tropical storm in another day and a half, expect steady intensification. Please do not sound “all clear” for anyone.

It certainly has that WPAC look in terms of cyclogenesis, with its large monsoonal sprawling envelope

[Javlin]

Cat 2 near SFL..

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/19/ff4a8100396798de50ae20d1ac298621-full.gif

Impressive ridge!

[caneseddy]

12Z ICON out through 51 hours, a hair north of prior run. Will go north of the islands.

[tiger_deF]

It certainly has that WPAC look in terms of cyclogenesis, with its large monsoonal sprawling envelope

Seems to be a theme this year..

[sma10]

12z models Lol see ya... will never amount to much if trends continue. Enjoy Island tour

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/19/747cc753b6391bf859a26701aa0be64d-full.png

Agree. It appears it’s going to take a visit to the Graveyard of hurricanes. Only concern is if does more of a Charley/Ivan and heads south of Haiti/Cuba. That seems more plausible right now compared to hit heading north of them.

Looking better for the east coast. The GOM still needs to keep an eye on it for the south track.

Those 12z spaghetti plots all lined up nice and neat for a direct smashing tour of Hispaniola are 96hr bullseyes. On a system that has not even fully developed yet. Possible? Yeah, sure I guess. But given my experience with 4 day bullseyes, I would put my money on missing the island at this point

[caneseddy]

ICON takes a small SW dip closer to the islands but then resumes WNW track and looks that it will pass just north of Puerto Rico..heading WNW towards SE Bahamas but may clip northern part of Hispaniola.

[jlauderdal]

Cat 2 near SFL..

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/19/ff4a8100396798de50ae20d1ac298621-full.gif

Impressive ridge!

orientation of that ridge is bad news for insurance companies

[caneseddy]

ICON in SE Bahamas and starting to intensify, misses Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to the north. Also has 97L intensifying once it passes YP into the Gulf

[stormlover2013]

icon florida straights into gom at 150 hours