ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[shiny-pebble]

Yeah the GFS/Euro are certainly winning right now.

What?? Even the most aggressive HWRF model doesn't get this really going for another 50 hours or so

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[GeneratorPower]

Dang. Levi Cowan pukes all over 97L and 98L, slamming the waves and the horses they rode in on through 12 minute mark, then cleans up the mess and goes somewhat bullish for Sunday going forward.

[ConvergenceZone]

Let’s bring Bones out

Seriously people, this was not expected to do anything tonight per the models. Almost all models don’t do intensify this until it gets north of the islands. This is nothing new up to this point, IMO. NHC would not be keeping the odds high and hinting at a PTC if they didn’t see anything

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Bones! It's Dead Jim! No wait! That's WXMAN's job

[CrazyC83]

I wonder what the chances are that the African wave - future 99L - develops first?

[SFLcane]

The models that are developing this have an unrealistic structure. We do this every yr.. Gonzalo, Isaac etc.

[cheezyWXguy]

Going to be a big bust for literally every model besides 2. Never discredit the euro and gfs.

What do you base this off of? I am interested how you know for certain. The people at the NHC could learn a thing or two from you.

[ConvergenceZone]

I wonder what the chances are that the African wave - future 99L - develops first?

You could be right. I think that's the one that suppose to be the east coast scraper on a couple of model runs....

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 13, 2020082000, , BEST, 0, 132N, 470W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, alB82020 to al132020,

[AxaltaRacing24]

you guys realize that almost no model shows 98L ramping up before friday and saturday right?

[SouthFLTropics]

AL, 13, 2020082000, , BEST, 0, 132N, 470W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, alB82020 to al132020,

Is this what I think it is???

[toad strangler]

Dang. Levi Cowan pukes all over 97L and 98L, slamming the waves and the horses they rode in on through 12 minute mark, then cleans up the mess and goes somewhat bullish for Sunday going forward.

Amazing how many of you didn't watch that all the way through on 98L

[WeatherEmperor]

AL, 13, 2020082000, , BEST, 0, 132N, 470W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, alB82020 to al132020,

I see "THIRTEEN" in the text output. Does that mean its been upgraded to TD13??


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[cheezyWXguy]

AL, 13, 2020082000, , BEST, 0, 132N, 470W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, alB82020 to al132020,

Score for the GFS and Euro, right guys?

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 13, 2020082000, , BEST, 0, 132N, 470W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, alB82020 to al132020,

I see "THIRTEEN" in the text output. Does that mean its been upgraded to TD13??


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Yes.

[CrazyC83]

AL, 13, 2020082000, , BEST, 0, 132N, 470W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, alB82020 to al132020,

I see "THIRTEEN" in the text output. Does that mean its been upgraded to TD13??


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PTC 13 to issue watches. It doesn't look like a TC.

[DestinHurricane]

AL, 13, 2020082000, , BEST, 0, 132N, 470W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, alB82020 to al132020,

And that's a real TD not a PTC? Seems a bit odd to me at this time. The NHC are pros and know what's happening though.

[SouthFLTropics]

AL, 13, 2020082000, , BEST, 0, 132N, 470W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, alB82020 to al132020,

I see "THIRTEEN" in the text output. Does that mean its been upgraded to TD13??


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PTC 13 to issue watches. It doesn't look like a TC.

At least we can start to get a discussion and see what the NHC is thinking down the road.

[DestinHurricane]

AL, 13, 2020082000, , BEST, 0, 132N, 470W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, alB82020 to al132020,

I see "THIRTEEN" in the text output. Does that mean its been upgraded to TD13??


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PTC 13 to issue watches. It doesn't look like a TC.

It says genesis.

[StruThiO]

Going to be a big bust for literally every model besides 2. Never discredit the euro and gfs.

[SFLcane]

Link????