ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AtlanticWind]

Now we get disscussion from the NHC

[eastcoastFL]

Back then they wouldn’t make more than a 3-day forecast I believe.

I actually miss the days of the 3 day cone.

The cone did not exist when I started in 1980. Time for it to go away, though. It is pretty much useless now. Doesn't indicate current track uncertainty or impact potential. Perhaps a "cone" based on model ensembles that changes throughout the life of the storm and changes in size according to the size of the predicted wind field?

I would like that, I personally hate the cone. People not dead center think everything is all good. People dead center on first advisory freak out, it’s a no win situation. Your idea sounds way better.

[SFLcane]

Can someone please link that text? I don’t see anything from the NHC.

[ConvergenceZone]

People use to posts the TWO's regularly, but you don't see them posted that much anymore. I'm sure the NHC discussions will be copied and pasted here once this develops though.

[Cataegis96]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020081918/hwrf_z850_vort_98L_3.png

HWRF wind field valid the same time as that ASCAT pass isn't too much different, to be honest. Both it and the other models that are more bullish do not even develop this until tomorrow at the earliest, as others have mentioned. Even if this system does stay disorganized in the short term, it can still be a major problem if the wave axis tracks north of the islands.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1296271636170027009

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1296271636170027009

huge win for the gfs and euro, right boys.

[wx98]

I see "THIRTEEN" in the text output. Does that mean its been upgraded to TD13??


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PTC 13 to issue watches. It doesn't look like a TC.

It says genesis.

Would it say Transitioned if it wasn’t going to TD? PTC is still just a tropical wave so nothing has really transitioned. Or does that mean something else here?

Edit: That must be the case because it is going to TD.

[eastcoastFL]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen, located east of the Lesser Antilles, at 11 PM AST/EDT (0300 UTC).

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1296271636170027009

huge win for the gfs and euro, right boys.

#not

[eastcoastFL]

PTC 13 to issue watches. It doesn't look like a TC.

It says genesis.

Would it say Transitioned if it wasn’t going to TD? PTC is still just a tropical wave so nothing has really transitioned. Or does that mean something else here?

Nhc says it’s TD13

[AtlanticWind]

We have a td nhc tweet

[wx98]

People use to posts the TWO's regularly, but you don't see them posted that much anymore. I'm sure the NHC discussions will be copied and pasted here once this develops though.

I see TWOs get posted a lot when the forum is slow. When discussion is high like this they don’t get posted as often.

[SouthFLTropics]

And there it is...Game on folks. I'm really looking forward to this first discussion and track. It will be very interesting to see what the real pros are thinking finally.

[eastcoastFL]

AL, 13, 2020082000, , BEST, 0, 132N, 470W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, alB82020 to al132020,

And that's a real TD not a PTC? Seems a bit odd to me at this time. The NHC are pros and know what's happening though.

You’re right. It’s a real TD per NHC

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1296271636170027009

It will be interesting to read why they decided to upgrade it to TD 13.

[aspen]

Hey, Luis ‘95. Your time has come.

One of the final earliest named storm records not held by 2005 will likely fall tomorrow.

[DestinHurricane]

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1296271636170027009

huge win for the gfs and euro, right boys.

Not really a win/loss for any model. I don't even think the HWRF/HMON had it developing this early.

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1296271636170027009

And there you have it!

[StruThiO]

It's a bust? literally all the models but gfs and euro are busting? nhc will lower development chances because gfs and euro show no development??

i really hope we can start deleting some of these garbage posts.