ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Reduction from flight level supports major hurricane, at the very least 105 knots.

[ClarCari]

Is Teddy trying to contract his eye again? There’s was some cold clouds forming into the center.

[NotoSans]

Surface mixing seems ineffective at the moment, which is typical for storms just completing ERC and with large eyes. I’d go with 95kt for the current intensity based on a blend of SFMR and flight-level winds, although NHC will likely keep it at major.

[us89]

Still a pronounced double wind maximum in the northeast quadrant.

[cheezyWXguy]

Still a pronounced double wind maximum in the northeast quadrant.

Is it due to that recent burst in the eye, from the remnant inner core?

Also, Teddy now has an AHI value of 1. If teddy clears out that eye and firms up that cdo, we could have an actual opportunity to throw the A-word around

[PavelGaborik10]

The little eye has once again popped out, cloud told have become very, very warm but Teddy is becoming absurdly large.

[aspen]

How wide is that eye? 50-60 miles?

[CrazyC83]

How wide is that eye? 50-60 miles?

60 nautical miles.

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1307500737384112139

[MarioProtVI]

Core looks like it got destroyed on latest IR loop. Not a major anymore, likely 90 kt max and on a downward trend from here slowly and probably a large and broad C1/C2 until ET transition occurs

[cheezyWXguy]

Core looks like it got destroyed on latest IR loop. Not a major anymore, likely 90 kt max and on a downward trend from here slowly and probably a large and broad C1/C2 until ET transition occurs

Agreed, very strange. It’s as if the outer eyewall just collapsed and it’s resorted to a bursting pattern again. No way this is a major now

[Chris90]

It does appear as if the core is getting the stuffing knocked out of it.

Maybe if Teddy rebuilds a smaller, tighter core though he'll make another intensification run. He's still far enough south in latitude he's got warm waters to work with for a little while longer. He's running out of time though with every step north.

[PavelGaborik10]

Teddy is rapidly weakening right now. The storm has literally been cut in half over the course of several hours.

I'm not sure what happened, but he's barely looking tropical at this point.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Will be interesting to see if Teddy gets "juiced up" by the trough (depending upon it's interaction with Teddy and overall tilt). Extratropical re-intensification could be the most important factor moving forward.

Edit - I'm stocked up just in case Teddy does something unexpected. I should be fairly safe where I am located no matter what happens (we typically need a persistent SW wind to cause major flooding or a direct storm surge hit) but I'd rather be safe than sorry.

[Chris90]

NHC latest discussion mentions that convective cells were forming inside the outer eyewall and that Teddy may be forming an inner eyewall. Teddy may be performing an “inside out” ERC. Can anyone think of any other storms that built a brand new inner eyewall that forced an outer eyewall to collapse? I can’t think of any. This seems like a potentially rare and unique event. I’m eager to see new microwave passes to see what is going on.

ERCs pretty much always work from the outer eyewall choking off the inner. I’ve seen inner remnants put up a fight and keep firing new convection for awhile, but microwave from a few hours ago suggests the old inner eyewall was completely dead, bones had been called. This seems like a brand new eyewall is forming inside the outer one. This season continues to try to do it all.

[PavelGaborik10]

NHC latest discussion mentions that convective cells were forming inside the outer eyewall and that Teddy may be forming an inner eyewall. Teddy may be performing an “inside out” ERC. Can anyone think of any other storms that built a brand new inner eyewall that forced an outer eyewall to collapse? I can’t think of any. This seems like a potentially rare and unique event. I’m eager to see new microwave passes to see what is going on.

ERCs pretty much always work from the outer eyewall choking off the inner. I’ve seen inner remnants put up a fight and keep firing new convection for awhile, but microwave from a few hours ago suggests the old inner eyewall was completely dead, bones had been called. This seems like a brand new eyewall is forming inside the outer one. This season continues to try to do it all.

That's a first to me as well, it also makes me wonder if that could result in Teddy's windfield growing potentially even larger than initially forecasted.

[CrazyC83]

I think we will also see wind-pressure mismatches going forward. Once the ET transition begins, the pressure could easily drop into the 940s or lower.

[us89]

NHC latest discussion mentions that convective cells were forming inside the outer eyewall and that Teddy may be forming an inner eyewall. Teddy may be performing an “inside out” ERC. Can anyone think of any other storms that built a brand new inner eyewall that forced an outer eyewall to collapse? I can’t think of any. This seems like a potentially rare and unique event. I’m eager to see new microwave passes to see what is going on.

ERCs pretty much always work from the outer eyewall choking off the inner. I’ve seen inner remnants put up a fight and keep firing new convection for awhile, but microwave from a few hours ago suggests the old inner eyewall was completely dead, bones had been called. This seems like a brand new eyewall is forming inside the outer one. This season continues to try to do it all.

That's a first to me as well, it also makes me wonder if that could result in Teddy's windfield growing potentially even larger than initially forecasted.

I noticed that earlier this evening. Not sure I’ve ever seen thunderstorms within an eye, much less apparently cause the existing eyewall to start falling apart. Wonder if we’d see any intensification if a smaller inner core managed to consolidate from that convection and the outer eyewall died off.

[PavelGaborik10]

Teddy's small eye is back and he looks to be re-intensifying.


This is crazy

[Keldeo1997]

NHC latest discussion mentions that convective cells were forming inside the outer eyewall and that Teddy may be forming an inner eyewall. Teddy may be performing an “inside out” ERC. Can anyone think of any other storms that built a brand new inner eyewall that forced an outer eyewall to collapse? I can’t think of any. This seems like a potentially rare and unique event. I’m eager to see new microwave passes to see what is going on.

ERCs pretty much always work from the outer eyewall choking off the inner. I’ve seen inner remnants put up a fight and keep firing new convection for awhile, but microwave from a few hours ago suggests the old inner eyewall was completely dead, bones had been called. This seems like a brand new eyewall is forming inside the outer one. This season continues to try to do it all.

Actually a Met in a Discord said that angular cyclones (Which is what Teddy was before everything came crash down) have a specific kind of EWRC where the very large eyewall caves in on itself and forms a smaller more Standard Eyewall. This may have just happened. I think what is confusing people is that Angular cyclones are very rare (Last one I remember in the Atlantic was Isabell) so witnessing something like this is crazy. I'm waiting for a Update to this http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2020_20L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_08.html to confirm. This is going to be studied no doubt