ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

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Horn1991
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#781 Postby Horn1991 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:17 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Picking up patches of hurricane force winds on radar around the eyewall.

too bad recon left..

though they might want to scramble another plane soon..

dont need anymore surprises right..


No we don’t.
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underthwx
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#782 Postby underthwx » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:18 pm

Rain pouring down here....wind is blowing a little harder as time passes by.....think its fixin to stay this way for a minute.....yuck
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#783 Postby davidiowx » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:19 pm

Given the radar appearance and if this holds for another hour or so (or gets better), I think they will have to get a recon out there ASAP.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#784 Postby gqhebert » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:19 pm

looks like an eye feature to me....on radar and I see a hint of an eye on sat as well
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#785 Postby underthwx » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:21 pm

gqhebert wrote:looks like an eye feature to me....on radar and I see a hint of an eye on sat as well


Can you possibly post an image of what you are describing?.....thanks
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#786 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:22 pm

I had a suspicion this could ramp up and down as soon as I saw that rather tight wind gradient in yesterday afternoon’s recon flight. And guess what just happened today? Center reformation under deep convection, MLC/LLC stacking, and an eyewall on radar imagery. Wow, Deja-vu.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#787 Postby jaguars_22 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:22 pm

I think the nhc has the path too Far East
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#788 Postby ronyan » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:26 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:I think the nhc has the path too Far East

They haven't updated the track since 10am, at 4pm they may nudge but won't be a drastic change I predict.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#789 Postby jaguars_22 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:27 pm

I’m thinking landfall seadrift Tx/ San Antonio bay
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#790 Postby TexasSam » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:31 pm

When I went to take a nap at 11:00am the one little rain band had passed, when I just now woke up it was raining hard again. I looked at the radar, and it seems the game has changed. I see a eye like feature on the radar. Wow! Might get worse than expected. Welcome to 2020 where anything can and will happen.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#791 Postby catskillfire51 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:31 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:I’m thinking landfall seadrift Tx/ San Antonio bay


why is that?
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#792 Postby ronyan » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:31 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:I’m thinking landfall seadrift Tx/ San Antonio bay

18z TVCN looks just west of Matagorda by a few miles, NHC track will be close to that.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#793 Postby jaguars_22 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:33 pm

I say seadrift because gfs has shown it and now euro is on board
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#794 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:39 pm

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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#795 Postby ronyan » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:41 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:I say seadrift because gfs has shown it and now euro is on board

GFS says Matagorda Bay from what I can see.
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Steve
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#796 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:42 pm

aspen wrote:I had a suspicion this could ramp up and down as soon as I saw that rather tight wind gradient in yesterday afternoon’s recon flight. And guess what just happened today? Center reformation under deep convection, MLC/LLC stacking, and an eyewall on radar imagery. Wow, Deja-vu.


Bursting pattern perhaps. Mesos were on it yesterday too.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#797 Postby us89 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:48 pm

I go a few hours without following this storm, and all of a sudden there's an eyewall on radar? Wow. Maybe this does still have an outside shot at hurricane status.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#798 Postby jaguars_22 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:51 pm

Seadrift is west of matagorda bay. If it goes in middle of both matagorda and San Antonio bay I expect to get direct hit
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#799 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:51 pm

Why is everyone jumping in here now all surprised? It's always been forecast to be a TS, possibly strong one, as it approcahes the Matagorda Bay area. :lol:
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#800 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:51 pm

us89 wrote:I go a few hours without following this storm, and all of a sudden there's an eyewall on radar? Wow. Maybe this does still have an outside shot at hurricane status.

If the velocities showing on radar are even half believable, we may have one right now
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