ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I go a few hours without following this storm, and all of a sudden there's an eyewall on radar? Wow. Maybe this does still have an outside shot at hurricane status.

If the velocities showing on radar are even half believable, we may have one right now

with reduction.. so far radar velocities would put it at 70 mph.

but with convection increasing and the eye becoming more distinct.. wont be too much longer..

[dhweather]

Dramatic changes in Beta's structure in the last couple of hours. Appears that it's reformed a center and is vertically stacked, and has, or soon will close off an eyewall. With radar velocities coming in near 90 in the northern eyewall area, we may already have a hurricane. Recon!!!!

[ronyan]

When is the next recon mission guys?

[us89]

I go a few hours without following this storm, and all of a sudden there's an eyewall on radar? Wow. Maybe this does still have an outside shot at hurricane status.

If the velocities showing on radar are even half believable, we may have one right now

At a minimum I'd expect hurricane watches to go back up for the Texas coast at 5pm unless the core starts to fall apart again.

[cheezyWXguy]

I go a few hours without following this storm, and all of a sudden there's an eyewall on radar? Wow. Maybe this does still have an outside shot at hurricane status.

If the velocities showing on radar are even half believable, we may have one right now

with reduction.. so far radar velocities would put it at 70 mph.

but with convection increasing and the eye becoming more distinct.. wont be too much longer..

What’s the reduction, 0.7?

[Kazmit]

Looking pretty legit this afternoon- more like a classic strong TS compared to early this morning.

[Blinhart]

Looks like Beta said "Hold my Beer", let me spin up and become possibly a Cat. 2 Hurricane to screw with everybody.

[jaguars_22]

Cat 2.... lol 9999.9999% surely won’t happen. So your saying there’s a chance...

[Aric Dunn]

If the velocities showing on radar are even half believable, we may have one right now

with reduction.. so far radar velocities would put it at 70 mph.

but with convection increasing and the eye becoming more distinct.. wont be too much longer..

What’s the reduction, 0.7?

currently looking at 15k feet on radar. so probably like .80 -.85

[CrazyC83]

If the velocities showing on radar are even half believable, we may have one right now

with reduction.. so far radar velocities would put it at 70 mph.

but with convection increasing and the eye becoming more distinct.. wont be too much longer..

What’s the reduction, 0.7?

It's too far away to be reliable for a surface wind. I would however estimate the intensity at 55 kt right now.

[lrak]

Cat 2.... lol 9999.9999% surely won’t happen. So your saying there’s a chance...

I have seen chance after chance become a bad situation.

The surf is going off here in CCTX.

['CaneFreak]

So looks like a small mesoscale upper level high might be lessening the shear this afternoon on the back side of this trough that moved through. We'll need to keep an eye on that this afternoon.

[cheezyWXguy]

with reduction.. so far radar velocities would put it at 70 mph.

but with convection increasing and the eye becoming more distinct.. wont be too much longer..

What’s the reduction, 0.7?

currently looking at 15k feet on radar. so probably like .80 -.85

I’ve seen a decent number of 100+mph bins in removed from the RF areas. I agree it’s probably best to wait and see if trends continue though

[Blinhart]

What’s the reduction, 0.7?

currently looking at 15k feet on radar. so probably like .80 -.85

I’ve seen a decent number of 100+mph bins in removed from the RF areas. I agree it’s probably best to wait and see if trends continue though

If there is Radar indications of 100 plus winds in the upper atmosphere, shouldn't that be enough to upgrade to Cat 1.

[dhweather]

I’ve seen a decent number of 100+mph bins in removed from the RF areas. I agree it’s probably best to wait and see if trends continue though

Ditto - and this concerns me, considering it's sitting in 30 degree water

[xironman]

The fact the the nasty weather in the eastern feeder band is dying off can't hurt ,allowing more moister inflow into the storm and making things more symmetrical.

[Texashawk]

So is there not any more recon scheduled?

[cheezyWXguy]

I am still skeptical this won’t pulse down as quickly as it pulsed up though. Cdo is a bit elongated W-E and there’s a little notch on the NE side where drier air may be trying to intrude. Very interesting developments today, but I still don’t know if I believe it will have much impact on landfall intensity

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So is there not any more recon scheduled?

I saw 6 pm est tonight.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

We may have "misunderestimated" Beta, to quote a phrase from a former President.